Yuma, AZ

NeutralTier 1CBSA 49740Compare

Risk Rank: #133 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -21

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Yuma's housing market shows average risk, ranking 133rd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+12% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Yuma experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +12% pace with homes taking +33% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permits per capita, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp69

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap62

Permits per 1,000 residents

Migrationp59

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +12% pace with homes taking +33% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+11.8%p61

Days on Market YoY

+32.6%p90

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.9%p51

Months in status13

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+3.0%p48

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-20.1%p19

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.32p62

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.30p69

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.5%p41

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

-$2Kp59

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-20.1%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 24.5%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	57	25	92	68	47	35
2025-09	Ress	49	15	92	68	12	35
2025-07	Ress	54	26	92	68	29	35
2025-06	Hyp	74	70	92	74	99	35
2025-04	Hyp	74	70	92	74	99	35
2025-03	Ress	63	12	92	65	100	35
2025-01	Ress	63	13	92	65	100	35
2024-11	Rec	70	49	92	72	100	35
2024-10	Ress	70	48	92	72	99	35
2024-08	Hyp	59	22	92	70	60	35
2024-06	Ress	52	19	92	72	23	35
2024-04	Ress	63	22	92	72	83	35
2024-01	Hyp	60	78	92	72	12	35
2023-12	Exp	70	64	92	72	79	35
2023-10	Exp	56	23	92	72	41	35
2023-09	Rec	67	28	92	73	97	35
2023-07	Rec	67	32	92	73	94	35
2023-04	Hyp	61	42	92	75	46	35
2023-02	Hyp	60	16	92	67	73	35
2022-12	Ress	64	71	92	91	17	35
2022-10	Ress	64	78	92	91	14	35
2022-08	Hyp	64	79	92	89	11	35
2022-07	Ress	62	78	92	89	3	35
2022-05	Ress	63	82	92	87	8	35
2022-04	Hyp	64	86	92	87	6	35
2022-03	Exp	67	92	92	87	20	35
2022-01	Exp	70	90	92	87	38	35
2021-12	Rec	64	90	92	65	21	42
2021-10	Rec	64	90	92	65	19	42
2021-09	Exp	64	92	92	65	17	42
2021-07	Exp	66	94	92	65	31	42
2021-04	Exp	75	94	92	60	85	42
2021-03	Rec	68	96	92	58	42	42
2021-01	Rec	66	93	92	58	34	42
2020-12	Exp	72	96	92	86	45	36
2020-10	Exp	70	95	92	86	39	36
2020-09	Rec	68	92	92	83	29	36
2020-07	Rec	67	92	92	83	23	36
2020-04	Rec	58	61	92	80	7	36
2020-01	Exp	65	72	92	81	32	36
2019-11	Exp	66	68	92	80	45	39
2019-10	Rec	64	67	92	80	36	39
2019-08	Rec	60	37	92	80	44	39
2019-06	Exp	57	56	92	80	3	39
2019-04	Exp	61	80	92	80	3	39
2019-01	Exp	55	51	92	79	1	39

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023