Yuma, AZ

NeutralTier 1CBSA 49740Compare

Risk Rank: #48 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +5

60score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Yuma's housing market shows average risk, ranking 48th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+13% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Yuma experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and permits per capita, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp97

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap66

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp65

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+12.8%p63

Days on Market YoY

+1.5%p50

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+3.1%p93

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.0%p11

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+7.5%p62

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.63p66

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.31p65

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-1.5%p97

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

-$2Kp59

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+7.5%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 24.5%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Exp	66	84	28	72	92	59
2025-12	Rec	50	48	19	69	41	59
2025-11	Hyp	57	25	92	68	47	35
2025-09	Ress	49	15	92	68	12	35
2025-07	Ress	54	26	92	68	29	35
2025-06	Hyp	74	70	92	74	99	35
2025-04	Hyp	74	70	92	74	99	35
2025-03	Ress	63	12	92	65	100	35
2025-01	Ress	63	13	92	65	100	35
2024-11	Rec	70	49	92	72	100	35
2024-10	Ress	70	48	92	72	99	35
2024-08	Hyp	59	22	92	70	60	35
2024-06	Ress	52	19	92	72	23	35
2024-04	Ress	63	22	92	72	83	35
2024-01	Hyp	60	78	92	72	12	35
2023-12	Exp	70	64	92	72	79	35
2023-10	Exp	56	23	92	72	41	35
2023-09	Rec	67	28	92	73	97	35
2023-07	Rec	67	32	92	73	94	35
2023-04	Hyp	61	42	92	75	46	35
2023-02	Hyp	60	16	92	67	73	35
2022-12	Ress	64	71	92	91	17	35
2022-10	Ress	64	78	92	91	14	35
2022-08	Hyp	64	79	92	89	11	35
2022-07	Ress	62	78	92	89	3	35
2022-05	Ress	63	82	92	87	8	35
2022-04	Hyp	64	86	92	87	6	35
2022-03	Exp	67	92	92	87	20	35
2022-01	Exp	70	90	92	87	38	35
2021-12	Rec	64	90	92	65	21	42
2021-10	Rec	64	90	92	65	19	42
2021-09	Exp	64	92	92	65	17	42
2021-07	Exp	66	94	92	65	31	42
2021-04	Exp	75	94	92	60	85	42
2021-03	Rec	68	96	92	58	42	42
2021-01	Rec	66	93	92	58	34	42
2020-12	Exp	72	96	92	86	45	36
2020-10	Exp	70	95	92	86	39	36
2020-09	Rec	68	92	92	83	29	36
2020-07	Rec	67	92	92	83	23	36
2020-04	Rec	58	61	92	80	7	36
2020-01	Exp	65	72	92	81	32	36
2019-11	Exp	66	68	92	80	45	39
2019-10	Rec	64	67	92	80	36	39
2019-08	Rec	60	37	92	80	44	39
2019-06	Exp	57	56	92	80	3	39
2019-04	Exp	61	80	92	80	3	39
2019-01	Exp	55	51	92	79	1	39

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023