Yuma, AZ

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 49740Compare

Risk Rank: #15 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↓ -8

66score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Yuma's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 15th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Yuma experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +9% pace with homes taking -13% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and price momentum, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp92

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentump84

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp72

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +9% pace with homes taking -13% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+9.1%p58

Days on Market YoY

-13.1%p24

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.0%p65

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+2.7%p84

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-12.9%p28

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.17p62

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.31p72

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-1.0%p92

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

-$2Kp59

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-12.9%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 24.5%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Exp	63	75	17	72	93	59
2025-12	Rec	50	48	19	69	41	59
2025-11	Hyp	57	25	92	68	47	35
2025-09	Ress	49	15	92	68	12	35
2025-07	Ress	54	26	92	68	29	35
2025-06	Hyp	74	70	92	74	99	35
2025-04	Hyp	74	70	92	74	99	35
2025-03	Ress	63	12	92	65	100	35
2025-01	Ress	63	13	92	65	100	35
2024-11	Rec	70	49	92	72	100	35
2024-10	Ress	70	48	92	72	99	35
2024-08	Hyp	59	22	92	70	60	35
2024-06	Ress	52	19	92	72	23	35
2024-04	Ress	63	22	92	72	83	35
2024-01	Hyp	60	78	92	72	12	35
2023-12	Exp	70	64	92	72	79	35
2023-10	Exp	56	23	92	72	41	35
2023-09	Rec	67	28	92	73	97	35
2023-07	Rec	67	32	92	73	94	35
2023-04	Hyp	61	42	92	75	46	35
2023-02	Hyp	60	16	92	67	73	35
2022-12	Ress	64	71	92	91	17	35
2022-10	Ress	64	78	92	91	14	35
2022-08	Hyp	64	79	92	89	11	35
2022-07	Ress	62	78	92	89	3	35
2022-05	Ress	63	82	92	87	8	35
2022-04	Hyp	64	86	92	87	6	35
2022-03	Exp	67	92	92	87	20	35
2022-01	Exp	70	90	92	87	38	35
2021-12	Rec	64	90	92	65	21	42
2021-10	Rec	64	90	92	65	19	42
2021-09	Exp	64	92	92	65	17	42
2021-07	Exp	66	94	92	65	31	42
2021-04	Exp	75	94	92	60	85	42
2021-03	Rec	68	96	92	58	42	42
2021-01	Rec	66	93	92	58	34	42
2020-12	Exp	72	96	92	86	45	36
2020-10	Exp	70	95	92	86	39	36
2020-09	Rec	68	92	92	83	29	36
2020-07	Rec	67	92	92	83	23	36
2020-04	Rec	58	61	92	80	7	36
2020-01	Exp	65	72	92	81	32	36
2019-11	Exp	66	68	92	80	45	39
2019-10	Rec	64	67	92	80	36	39
2019-08	Rec	60	37	92	80	44	39
2019-06	Exp	57	56	92	80	3	39
2019-04	Exp	61	80	92	80	3	39
2019-01	Exp	55	51	92	79	1	39

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023