Rankings/Yuba City, CA

Yuba City, CA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 49700Compare

Risk Rank: #261 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -10

37score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Yuba City experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 3 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Yuba City's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 261st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by permits per capita and affordability. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p55 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p52 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growth

p49 (below average risk)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-8% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-8.1%p40

Days on Market YoY

+17.1%p78

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.8%p85

Months in status23

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum27

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth49

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita55

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability52

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment2

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration35

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.0%	p27
Permit Growth	-2.7%	p49
Permits/1K Pop	4.37	p55
Affordability	0.28	p52
Employment	+2.5%	p2
Net AGI Migration	+$53K	p35

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY-8.1%

Days on Market YoY+17.1%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 3 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	44	12	87	51	20	35
2025-09	Ress	40	10	87	51	3	35
2025-07	Ress	45	32	87	51	7	35
2025-06	Hyp	41	9	87	46	14	35
2025-04	Hyp	40	14	87	46	2	35
2025-03	Ress	42	22	87	51	3	35
2025-01	Ress	41	14	87	51	1	35
2024-10	Hyp	44	22	87	59	5	35
2024-08	Hyp	46	4	87	56	37	35
2024-07	Ress	44	4	87	55	27	35
2024-05	Ress	44	14	87	53	20	35
2024-04	Hyp	44	24	87	53	12	35
2024-03	Exp	51	56	87	59	13	35
2024-01	Exp	50	58	87	59	7	35
2023-10	Exp	53	28	87	62	48	35
2023-09	Rec	51	27	87	60	42	35
2023-07	Rec	51	21	87	60	47	35
2023-04	Rec	55	3	87	56	91	35
2023-03	Hyp	55	1	87	55	97	35
2023-02	Ress	55	0	87	55	95	35
2022-12	Ress	59	4	87	86	86	35
2022-11	Hyp	61	5	87	86	95	35
2022-10	Ress	54	5	87	86	58	35
2022-08	Ress	47	9	87	87	10	35
2022-07	Hyp	51	9	87	87	34	35
2022-06	Ress	51	27	87	88	13	35
2022-04	Ress	55	45	87	88	21	35
2022-01	Ress	59	71	87	91	12	35
2021-12	Hyp	57	68	87	84	8	39
2021-11	Ress	58	70	87	85	8	39
2021-09	Ress	62	85	87	87	20	39
2021-08	Exp	65	84	87	87	39	39
2021-06	Exp	68	78	87	85	60	39
2021-03	Rec	68	85	87	85	59	39
2021-01	Rec	68	90	87	85	48	39
2020-12	Exp	65	89	87	81	41	35
2020-10	Exp	65	81	87	81	51	35
2020-09	Rec	58	78	87	81	14	35
2020-07	Rec	56	78	87	81	3	35
2020-04	Exp	58	86	87	81	1	35
2020-02	Exp	55	74	87	79	0	35
2019-11	Exp	57	89	87	80	0	31
2019-10	Rec	57	87	87	80	0	31
2019-08	Rec	58	86	87	80	5	31
2019-06	Exp	54	71	87	79	2	31
2019-04	Exp	56	77	87	79	4	31
2019-03	Rec	55	71	87	77	5	31
2019-01	Rec	58	73	87	77	24	31

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022