Rankings/Youngstown-Warren, OH

Youngstown-Warren, OH

NeutralTier 1CBSA 49660Compare

Risk Rank: #120 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -1

52score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Youngstown experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Youngstown's housing market shows average risk, ranking 120th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+10% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by employment and price momentum. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment

p68 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p65 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Migration

p64 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking +3% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+10.1%p59

Days on Market YoY

+3.3%p55

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.3%p81

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum65

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth58

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita1

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability55

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment68

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration64

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.3%	p65
Permit Growth	+2.9%	p58
Permits/1K Pop	0.66	p1
Affordability	0.28	p55
Employment	-0.1%	p68
Net AGI Migration	-$10K	p64

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+2.9%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+10.1%

Days on Market YoY+3.3%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 5 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	50	72	36	54	76	63
2025-09	Rec	47	69	36	54	58	63
2025-07	Hyp	43	59	36	54	46	63
2025-06	Rec	47	86	36	57	40	63
2025-05	Ress	48	92	36	58	41	63
2025-03	Hyp	50	92	36	53	54	63
2025-02	Ress	50	91	36	53	54	63
2024-12	Ress	53	94	36	49	74	63
2024-11	Hyp	54	97	36	49	76	63
2024-10	Rec	54	99	36	49	79	63
2024-09	Hyp	54	100	36	52	71	63
2024-07	Ress	49	99	36	52	44	63
2024-05	Ress	47	90	36	46	47	63
2024-04	Rec	48	84	36	46	56	63
2024-03	Ress	51	85	36	41	82	63
2024-01	Hyp	50	88	36	41	71	63
2023-12	Exp	50	63	36	53	83	63
2023-10	Exp	47	48	36	53	79	63
2023-07	Rec	51	65	36	55	87	63
2023-05	Rec	54	81	36	54	92	63
2023-03	Ress	44	63	36	48	53	63
2023-02	Hyp	43	57	36	48	52	63
2023-01	Exp	42	50	36	48	54	63
2022-11	Exp	44	61	36	30	70	63
2022-09	Rec	40	58	36	29	55	63
2022-07	Rec	40	55	36	29	56	63
2022-06	Exp	34	19	36	24	59	63
2022-04	Exp	34	21	36	24	60	63
2022-01	Rec	37	35	36	26	61	63
2021-11	Rec	35	36	36	28	52	55
2021-10	Exp	36	37	36	28	60	55
2021-08	Exp	38	45	36	28	61	55
2021-05	Exp	34	55	36	27	27	55
2021-04	Rec	32	60	36	27	13	55
2021-02	Rec	46	73	36	28	81	55
2021-01	Exp	45	75	36	28	77	55
2020-11	Exp	48	78	36	26	80	65
2020-10	Rec	47	71	36	26	81	65
2020-08	Rec	44	52	36	25	84	65
2020-05	Rec	44	52	36	23	87	65
2020-02	Rec	46	54	36	23	97	65
2020-01	Exp	46	53	36	23	97	65
2019-11	Exp	46	39	36	24	98	77
2019-09	Rec	47	49	36	24	96	77
2019-07	Rec	50	64	36	25	97	77
2019-06	Exp	44	29	36	22	99	77
2019-04	Exp	44	30	36	22	99	77
2019-01	Exp	40	26	36	22	77	77

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022