Rankings/York-Hanover, PA

York-Hanover, PA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 49620Compare

Risk Rank: #223 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -10

41score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

York's housing market shows average risk, ranking 223rd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+10% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

York experienced a market correction from early 2023 through early 2023. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking +4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and employment, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp82

YoY permit change

Employmentp48

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap44

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking +4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+10.1%p59

Days on Market YoY

+4.3%p57

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.2%p88

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+2.3%p37

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+19.4%p82

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.46p44

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.22p9

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.3%p48

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$78Kp24

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+19.4%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 18%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	43	75	68	9	38	31
2025-10	Rec	46	83	68	9	53	31
2025-08	Rec	47	87	68	9	51	31
2025-07	Hyp	48	85	68	9	58	31
2025-05	Hyp	45	61	68	8	68	31
2025-03	Exp	52	94	68	10	72	31
2025-01	Exp	51	89	68	10	75	31
2024-12	Rec	51	75	68	8	91	31
2024-10	Rec	51	78	68	8	86	31
2024-09	Exp	49	82	68	8	69	31
2024-07	Exp	50	85	68	8	72	31
2024-04	Hyp	47	78	68	8	60	31
2024-03	Rec	48	74	68	8	72	31
2024-01	Rec	44	64	68	8	57	31
2023-12	Hyp	40	57	68	4	41	31
2023-10	Hyp	42	61	68	4	54	31
2023-09	Exp	42	59	68	4	56	31
2023-07	Exp	45	69	68	4	63	31
2023-06	Rec	47	66	68	4	75	31
2023-04	Rec	48	64	68	4	86	31
2023-02	Ress	45	65	68	4	66	31
2022-12	Hyp	41	55	68	4	51	31
2022-11	Exp	40	58	68	4	44	31
2022-09	Rec	35	40	68	4	30	31
2022-07	Rec	32	25	68	4	29	31
2022-05	Exp	32	18	68	4	32	31
2022-03	Exp	33	28	68	4	29	31
2021-12	Rec	34	16	68	3	50	31
2021-10	Rec	35	17	68	3	56	31
2021-09	Exp	39	32	68	3	65	31
2021-07	Exp	40	31	68	3	74	31
2021-04	Exp	31	45	68	3	6	31
2021-03	Rec	39	45	68	3	54	31
2021-01	Rec	40	46	68	3	55	31
2020-12	Exp	42	51	68	3	60	34
2020-10	Exp	42	49	68	3	66	34
2020-09	Rec	44	56	68	3	65	34
2020-07	Rec	40	39	68	3	60	34
2020-04	Exp	46	46	68	3	92	34
2020-02	Exp	43	47	68	2	70	34
2020-01	Rec	44	46	68	2	82	34
2019-11	Rec	39	35	68	2	50	42
2019-08	Exp	46	64	68	3	67	42
2019-06	Exp	43	38	68	2	74	42
2019-05	Rec	44	39	68	2	80	42
2019-03	Rec	42	26	68	3	75	42
2019-01	Rec	39	14	68	3	74	42

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023