Rankings/York-Hanover, PA

York-Hanover, PA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 49620Compare

Risk Rank: #177 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -5

46score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

York experienced a market correction from early 2023 through early 2023. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 2 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

York's housing market shows average risk, ranking 177th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+10% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permit growth and price momentum. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permit Growth

p82 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Price Momentum

p61 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Employment

p48 (below average risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking +4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+10.1%p59

Days on Market YoY

+4.3%p57

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.2%p80

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum61

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth82

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita45

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability10

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment48

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration31

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.1%	p61
Permit Growth	+19.4%	p82
Permits/1K Pop	3.46	p45
Affordability	0.22	p10
Employment	+0.3%	p48
Net AGI Migration	+$66K	p31

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+19.4%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+10.1%

Days on Market YoY+4.3%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	43	75	68	9	38	31
2025-10	Rec	46	83	68	9	53	31
2025-08	Rec	47	87	68	9	51	31
2025-07	Hyp	48	85	68	9	58	31
2025-05	Hyp	45	61	68	8	68	31
2025-03	Exp	52	94	68	10	72	31
2025-01	Exp	51	89	68	10	75	31
2024-12	Rec	51	75	68	8	91	31
2024-10	Rec	51	78	68	8	86	31
2024-09	Exp	49	82	68	8	69	31
2024-07	Exp	50	85	68	8	72	31
2024-04	Hyp	47	78	68	8	60	31
2024-03	Rec	48	74	68	8	72	31
2024-01	Rec	44	64	68	8	57	31
2023-12	Hyp	40	57	68	4	41	31
2023-10	Hyp	42	61	68	4	54	31
2023-09	Exp	42	59	68	4	56	31
2023-07	Exp	45	69	68	4	63	31
2023-06	Rec	47	66	68	4	75	31
2023-04	Rec	48	64	68	4	86	31
2023-02	Ress	45	65	68	4	66	31
2022-12	Hyp	41	55	68	4	51	31
2022-11	Exp	40	58	68	4	44	31
2022-09	Rec	35	40	68	4	30	31
2022-07	Rec	32	25	68	4	29	31
2022-05	Exp	32	18	68	4	32	31
2022-03	Exp	33	28	68	4	29	31
2021-12	Rec	34	16	68	3	50	31
2021-10	Rec	35	17	68	3	56	31
2021-09	Exp	39	32	68	3	65	31
2021-07	Exp	40	31	68	3	74	31
2021-04	Exp	31	45	68	3	6	31
2021-03	Rec	39	45	68	3	54	31
2021-01	Rec	40	46	68	3	55	31
2020-12	Exp	42	51	68	3	60	34
2020-10	Exp	42	49	68	3	66	34
2020-09	Rec	44	56	68	3	65	34
2020-07	Rec	40	39	68	3	60	34
2020-04	Exp	46	46	68	3	92	34
2020-02	Exp	43	47	68	2	70	34
2020-01	Rec	44	46	68	2	82	34
2019-11	Rec	39	35	68	2	50	42
2019-08	Exp	46	64	68	3	67	42
2019-06	Exp	43	38	68	2	74	42
2019-05	Rec	44	39	68	2	80	42
2019-03	Rec	42	26	68	3	75	42
2019-01	Rec	39	14	68	3	74	42

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022