Rankings/York-Hanover, PA

York-Hanover, PA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 49620Compare

Risk Rank: #252 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↓ -11

34score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

York's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 252nd of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

York experienced a market correction from early 2023 through early 2023. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and employment, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump83

12-month HPI change

Employmentp49

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap30

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+2.8%p51

Days on Market YoY

+3.3%p55

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.7%p74

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+2.8%p83

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-32.9%p6

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.60p30

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.23p9

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.1%p49

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$78Kp24

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-32.9%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 18%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Exp	41	37	82	9	48	24
2025-10	Rec	46	83	68	9	53	31
2025-08	Rec	47	87	68	9	51	31
2025-07	Hyp	48	85	68	9	58	31
2025-05	Hyp	45	61	68	8	68	31
2025-03	Exp	52	94	68	10	72	31
2025-01	Exp	51	89	68	10	75	31
2024-12	Rec	51	75	68	8	91	31
2024-10	Rec	51	78	68	8	86	31
2024-09	Exp	49	82	68	8	69	31
2024-07	Exp	50	85	68	8	72	31
2024-04	Hyp	47	78	68	8	60	31
2024-03	Rec	48	74	68	8	72	31
2024-01	Rec	44	64	68	8	57	31
2023-12	Hyp	40	57	68	4	41	31
2023-10	Hyp	42	61	68	4	54	31
2023-09	Exp	42	59	68	4	56	31
2023-07	Exp	45	69	68	4	63	31
2023-06	Rec	47	66	68	4	75	31
2023-04	Rec	48	64	68	4	86	31
2023-02	Ress	45	65	68	4	66	31
2022-12	Hyp	41	55	68	4	51	31
2022-11	Exp	40	58	68	4	44	31
2022-09	Rec	35	40	68	4	30	31
2022-07	Rec	32	25	68	4	29	31
2022-05	Exp	32	18	68	4	32	31
2022-03	Exp	33	28	68	4	29	31
2021-12	Rec	34	16	68	3	50	31
2021-10	Rec	35	17	68	3	56	31
2021-09	Exp	39	32	68	3	65	31
2021-07	Exp	40	31	68	3	74	31
2021-04	Exp	31	45	68	3	6	31
2021-03	Rec	39	45	68	3	54	31
2021-01	Rec	40	46	68	3	55	31
2020-12	Exp	42	51	68	3	60	34
2020-10	Exp	42	49	68	3	66	34
2020-09	Rec	44	56	68	3	65	34
2020-07	Rec	40	39	68	3	60	34
2020-04	Exp	46	46	68	3	92	34
2020-02	Exp	43	47	68	2	70	34
2020-01	Rec	44	46	68	2	82	34
2019-11	Rec	39	35	68	2	50	42
2019-08	Exp	46	64	68	3	67	42
2019-06	Exp	43	38	68	2	74	42
2019-05	Rec	44	39	68	2	80	42
2019-03	Rec	42	26	68	3	75	42
2019-01	Rec	39	14	68	3	74	42

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023