Rankings/York-Hanover, PA

York-Hanover, PA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 49620Compare

Risk Rank: #266 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -19

28score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

York's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 266th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

York experienced a market correction from early 2023 through early 2023. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking -3% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and permits per capita, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump75

12-month HPI change

Permits per Capitap28

Permits per 1,000 residents

Migrationp24

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking -3% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+8.0%p57

Days on Market YoY

-2.8%p41

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.1%p65

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.4%p75

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-31.1%p7

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.64p28

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.24p10

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+1.2%p22

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$78Kp24

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-31.1%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 18%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	28	65	7	9	34	24
2025-12	Exp	41	37	82	9	48	24
2025-10	Rec	46	83	68	9	53	31
2025-08	Rec	47	87	68	9	51	31
2025-07	Hyp	48	85	68	9	58	31
2025-05	Hyp	45	61	68	8	68	31
2025-03	Exp	52	94	68	10	72	31
2025-01	Exp	51	89	68	10	75	31
2024-12	Rec	51	75	68	8	91	31
2024-10	Rec	51	78	68	8	86	31
2024-09	Exp	49	82	68	8	69	31
2024-07	Exp	50	85	68	8	72	31
2024-04	Hyp	47	78	68	8	60	31
2024-03	Rec	48	74	68	8	72	31
2024-01	Rec	44	64	68	8	57	31
2023-12	Hyp	40	57	68	4	41	31
2023-10	Hyp	42	61	68	4	54	31
2023-09	Exp	42	59	68	4	56	31
2023-07	Exp	45	69	68	4	63	31
2023-06	Rec	47	66	68	4	75	31
2023-04	Rec	48	64	68	4	86	31
2023-02	Ress	45	65	68	4	66	31
2022-12	Hyp	41	55	68	4	51	31
2022-11	Exp	40	58	68	4	44	31
2022-09	Rec	35	40	68	4	30	31
2022-07	Rec	32	25	68	4	29	31
2022-05	Exp	32	18	68	4	32	31
2022-03	Exp	33	28	68	4	29	31
2021-12	Rec	34	16	68	3	50	31
2021-10	Rec	35	17	68	3	56	31
2021-09	Exp	39	32	68	3	65	31
2021-07	Exp	40	31	68	3	74	31
2021-04	Exp	31	45	68	3	6	31
2021-03	Rec	39	45	68	3	54	31
2021-01	Rec	40	46	68	3	55	31
2020-12	Exp	42	51	68	3	60	34
2020-10	Exp	42	49	68	3	66	34
2020-09	Rec	44	56	68	3	65	34
2020-07	Rec	40	39	68	3	60	34
2020-04	Exp	46	46	68	3	92	34
2020-02	Exp	43	47	68	2	70	34
2020-01	Rec	44	46	68	2	82	34
2019-11	Rec	39	35	68	2	50	42
2019-08	Exp	46	64	68	3	67	42
2019-06	Exp	43	38	68	2	74	42
2019-05	Rec	44	39	68	2	80	42
2019-03	Rec	42	26	68	3	75	42
2019-01	Rec	39	14	68	3	74	42

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023