Yakima, WA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 49420Compare

Risk Rank: #76 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +12

56score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Yakima experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 5 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Yakima's housing market shows average risk, ranking 76th of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 5 months. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permit growth and employment. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permit Growth

p94 (highest risk decile)

YoY permit change

Employment

p67 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration

p64 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +23% YoY with days on market up +16% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+23.5%p73

Days on Market YoY

+16.1%p76

Months in status8

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.7%p85

Months in status32

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum29

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth94

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita32

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability52

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment67

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration64

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.1%	p29
Permit Growth	+52.2%	p94
Permits/1K Pop	2.60	p32
Affordability	0.28	p52
Employment	-0.1%	p67
Net AGI Migration	-$11K	p64

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+52.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY+23.5%

Days on Market YoY+16.1%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 8 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	38	29	17	51	49	63
2025-09	Hyp	46	35	17	51	90	63
2025-07	Ress	39	46	17	51	39	63
2025-05	Ress	40	51	17	56	36	63
2025-04	Hyp	40	42	17	56	40	63
2025-02	Hyp	40	53	17	55	33	63
2025-01	Rec	39	61	17	55	20	63
2024-12	Hyp	44	63	17	55	45	63
2024-11	Rec	47	61	17	54	65	63
2024-09	Ress	44	22	17	52	91	63
2024-07	Rec	41	8	17	52	84	63
2024-06	Ress	42	27	17	56	72	63
2024-04	Ress	44	45	17	56	66	63
2024-03	Hyp	44	28	17	52	87	63
2024-02	Rec	44	38	17	52	73	63
2024-01	Hyp	44	49	17	52	60	63
2023-11	Exp	44	33	17	58	75	63
2023-09	Rec	47	61	17	63	60	63
2023-07	Rec	51	62	17	63	79	63
2023-06	Hyp	46	42	17	59	74	63
2023-04	Hyp	44	31	17	59	76	63
2023-03	Ress	40	19	17	58	66	63
2023-01	Ress	41	15	17	58	75	63
2022-10	Hyp	40	13	17	69	58	63
2022-08	Ress	38	11	17	69	45	63
2022-06	Ress	38	18	17	72	38	63
2022-03	Exp	40	41	17	75	26	63
2022-02	Hyp	41	43	17	75	28	63
2022-01	Rec	41	46	17	75	24	63
2021-12	Hyp	46	64	16	72	34	69
2021-10	Ress	45	65	16	72	30	69
2021-08	Ress	48	64	16	73	49	69
2021-07	Exp	44	62	16	73	24	69
2021-05	Exp	51	74	16	72	54	69
2021-04	Rec	57	77	16	72	89	69
2021-02	Rec	52	77	16	70	64	69
2021-01	Exp	53	77	16	70	66	69
2020-11	Exp	53	89	16	73	43	76
2020-09	Rec	55	97	16	72	51	76
2020-07	Rec	58	96	16	72	67	76
2020-04	Rec	50	89	16	71	26	76
2020-01	Exp	54	92	16	70	51	76
2019-11	Exp	56	89	16	68	74	66
2019-10	Rec	54	90	16	68	62	66
2019-08	Rec	56	84	16	67	80	66
2019-05	Rec	56	96	16	67	74	66
2019-03	Exp	59	96	16	65	92	66
2019-01	Exp	56	97	16	65	70	66

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022