Rankings/Worcester, MA

Worcester, MA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 49340Compare

Risk Rank: #244 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -27

39score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Worcester experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recession for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Worcester's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 244th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by migration and price momentum. The market is in Recession phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p85 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p53 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Employment

p36 (below average risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +24% YoY with days on market up +15% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+23.9%p74

Days on Market YoY

+14.6%p74

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.1%p88

Months in status44

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum53

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth11

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita18

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability29

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment36

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration85

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.5%	p53
Permit Growth	-25.9%	p11
Permits/1K Pop	1.87	p18
Affordability	0.25	p29
Employment	+0.6%	p36
Net AGI Migration	-$92K	p85

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-25.9%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY+23.9%

Days on Market YoY+14.6%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	62	57	96	27	72	85
2025-10	Hyp	62	63	96	27	63	85
2025-08	Hyp	62	64	96	27	65	85
2025-06	Ress	68	78	96	29	85	85
2025-04	Ress	67	77	96	29	81	85
2025-01	Hyp	68	68	96	30	90	85
2024-12	Ress	66	61	96	28	91	85
2024-10	Ress	68	74	96	28	88	85
2024-09	Hyp	68	75	96	27	89	85
2024-08	Ress	68	77	96	27	87	85
2024-06	Ress	65	70	96	26	76	85
2024-05	Exp	65	67	96	26	80	85
2024-03	Rec	64	70	96	27	70	85
2024-01	Rec	63	71	96	27	65	85
2023-12	Exp	62	61	96	21	70	85
2023-10	Exp	62	69	96	21	68	85
2023-08	Rec	64	65	96	22	78	85
2023-06	Rec	66	70	96	22	89	85
2023-03	Hyp	65	59	96	22	90	85
2023-02	Ress	65	60	96	22	91	85
2022-12	Ress	60	38	96	31	72	85
2022-10	Exp	60	33	96	31	80	85
2022-08	Exp	57	28	96	31	65	85
2022-07	Hyp	56	27	96	31	63	85
2022-06	Exp	54	24	96	32	51	85
2022-04	Exp	54	29	96	32	47	85
2022-01	Rec	54	38	96	34	33	85
2021-11	Rec	56	48	96	24	43	88
2021-10	Exp	54	50	96	24	33	88
2021-08	Exp	53	60	96	25	14	88
2021-05	Exp	56	72	96	24	18	88
2021-03	Rec	66	74	96	24	79	88
2021-01	Rec	66	76	96	24	75	88
2020-12	Exp	65	75	96	25	72	88
2020-10	Exp	65	67	96	25	78	88
2020-09	Rec	65	65	96	24	83	88
2020-07	Rec	66	66	96	24	86	88
2020-04	Exp	65	64	96	25	81	88
2020-02	Exp	59	45	96	24	64	88
2019-12	Rec	61	54	96	24	74	81
2019-10	Rec	61	63	96	24	68	81
2019-07	Rec	56	42	96	24	59	81
2019-06	Exp	54	31	96	23	57	81
2019-04	Exp	54	28	96	23	63	81
2019-03	Rec	57	45	96	24	62	81
2019-01	Rec	58	50	96	24	64	81

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022