Rankings/Winston-Salem, NC

Winston-Salem, NC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 49180Compare

Risk Rank: #234 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -13

41score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Winston experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 2 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Winston's housing market shows average risk, ranking 234th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and affordability. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p76 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p56 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentum

p37 (below average risk)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +25% YoY with days on market up +12% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY

+24.8%p75

Days on Market YoY

+11.7%p70

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.1%p79

Months in status23

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum37

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth26

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita76

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability56

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment20

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration29

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.7%	p37
Permit Growth	-15.2%	p26
Permits/1K Pop	6.80	p76
Affordability	0.28	p56
Employment	+1.0%	p20
Net AGI Migration	+$77K	p29

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-15.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY+24.8%

Days on Market YoY+11.7%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Winston's counties diverge significantly — Stokes County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Davie County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High25.1

5 of 5 counties scored

Winston, NC shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Stokes County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Davie County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Stokes CountyRisk Driver	83	High Risk	20.0%	75	100	75
Forsyth County	67	Elevated	20.0%	50	50	100
Yadkin County	58	Elevated	20.0%	100	75	0
Davidson County	25	Low Risk	20.0%	25	0	50
Davie CountyStabilizer	17	Low Risk	20.0%	0	25	25

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	46	41	58	55	14	30
2025-10	Rec	46	45	58	55	9	30
2025-09	Hyp	47	53	58	55	5	30
2025-07	Rec	50	67	58	55	9	30
2025-06	Ress	52	76	58	59	6	30
2025-04	Hyp	51	65	58	59	15	30
2025-02	Hyp	52	62	58	56	28	30
2024-11	Hyp	58	74	58	55	49	30
2024-08	Ress	54	38	58	52	68	30
2024-06	Ress	56	45	58	53	67	30
2024-04	Hyp	60	60	58	54	76	30
2024-02	Rec	65	83	58	56	83	30
2024-01	Exp	64	83	58	56	79	30
2023-11	Exp	58	56	58	44	81	30
2023-08	Rec	66	91	58	48	87	30
2023-06	Rec	64	86	58	45	86	30
2023-04	Hyp	63	87	58	45	79	30
2023-02	Ress	61	83	58	43	70	30
2022-12	Ress	59	87	58	43	53	30
2022-10	Hyp	57	84	58	43	45	30
2022-09	Rec	57	81	58	40	53	30
2022-08	Ress	56	80	58	40	49	30
2022-07	Hyp	56	79	58	39	50	30
2022-05	Hyp	62	77	58	38	91	30
2022-04	Exp	62	78	58	38	87	30
2022-02	Rec	62	69	58	36	95	30
2021-12	Rec	61	61	58	32	98	37
2021-11	Exp	58	61	58	32	83	37
2021-09	Exp	58	59	58	31	80	37
2021-06	Exp	49	53	58	30	36	37
2021-04	Rec	51	53	58	30	49	37
2021-02	Rec	49	66	58	28	27	37
2020-12	Exp	54	73	58	37	21	56
2020-10	Exp	55	68	58	37	33	56
2020-09	Rec	55	70	58	36	32	56
2020-07	Rec	59	73	58	36	51	56
2020-04	Rec	58	73	58	35	44	56
2020-01	Exp	55	41	58	34	61	56
2019-11	Exp	53	46	58	34	34	65
2019-09	Rec	53	49	58	34	31	65
2019-07	Rec	57	66	58	34	39	65
2019-06	Exp	56	61	58	34	38	65
2019-04	Exp	55	57	58	34	37	65
2019-03	Rec	56	69	58	36	29	65
2019-01	Rec	54	54	58	36	30	65

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022