Rankings/Wilmington, NC

Wilmington, NC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 48900Compare

Risk Rank: #127 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↓ -17

51score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Wilmington's housing market shows average risk, ranking 127th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Wilmington experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and affordability, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap100

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp89

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentump60

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+4.4%p53

Days on Market YoY

+9.3%p66

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.3%p70

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+1.9%p60

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-5.3%p44

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

18.10p100

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.35p89

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+2.0%p4

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$498Kp7

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-5.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 18.5%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Wilmington's counties diverge significantly — New Hanover County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Pender County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High18.1Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Wilmington, NC shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. New Hanover County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Pender County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
New Hanover CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	51.9%	100	100	100
Brunswick County	50	Average	33.7%	50	0	50
Pender CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	14.5%	0	50	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Hyp	48	54	33	87	5	7
2025-11	Rec	61	67	99	88	6	8
2025-10	Hyp	61	66	99	88	5	8
2025-08	Hyp	66	78	99	88	25	8
2025-06	Ress	70	67	99	86	59	8
2025-04	Ress	65	50	99	86	46	8
2025-03	Hyp	58	38	99	85	19	8
2025-01	Hyp	57	33	99	85	16	8
2024-10	Hyp	67	68	99	85	40	8
2024-07	Ress	58	46	99	84	8	8
2024-05	Ress	61	62	99	84	13	8
2024-02	Ress	61	56	99	85	19	8
2024-01	Hyp	61	46	99	85	27	8
2023-11	Hyp	58	49	99	80	12	8
2023-09	Rec	62	71	99	81	12	8
2023-07	Rec	62	68	99	81	16	8
2023-06	Hyp	65	83	99	79	19	8
2023-04	Hyp	65	89	99	79	13	8
2023-03	Ress	66	98	99	82	8	8
2023-01	Ress	65	99	99	82	4	8
2022-10	Ress	65	95	99	79	7	8
2022-07	Ress	64	91	99	79	10	8
2022-06	Hyp	64	92	99	77	8	8
2022-05	Exp	67	91	99	77	25	8
2022-03	Exp	66	85	99	72	29	8
2022-02	Rec	65	84	99	72	25	8
2021-12	Rec	63	75	99	67	26	9
2021-11	Exp	62	75	99	67	20	9
2021-09	Exp	62	80	99	68	16	9
2021-06	Exp	60	76	99	66	12	9
2021-05	Rec	60	78	99	66	8	9
2021-03	Rec	58	71	99	64	8	9
2021-02	Exp	59	67	99	64	13	9
2020-12	Exp	59	50	99	80	16	9
2020-11	Rec	60	57	99	80	14	9
2020-09	Rec	62	71	99	80	14	9
2020-06	Exp	65	71	99	79	31	9
2020-04	Exp	68	59	99	79	65	9
2020-03	Rec	65	91	99	82	7	9
2020-01	Rec	65	94	99	82	4	9
2019-12	Exp	64	92	99	80	1	11
2019-10	Exp	63	88	99	80	1	11
2019-07	Exp	62	73	99	79	9	11
2019-04	Exp	66	89	99	80	16	11
2019-01	Exp	63	81	99	76	9	11

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023