Rankings/Wilmington, NC

Wilmington, NC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 48900Compare

Risk Rank: #137 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -8

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Wilmington experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Wilmington's housing market shows average risk, ranking 137th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and affordability. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p99 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p88 (elevated risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentum

p68 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +21% YoY with days on market up +12% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+21.4%p71

Days on Market YoY

+11.7%p70

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.6%p27

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum68

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth34

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita99

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability88

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment4

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration8

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.5%	p68
Permit Growth	-10.8%	p34
Permits/1K Pop	17.20	p99
Affordability	0.34	p88
Employment	+2.0%	p4
Net AGI Migration	+$598K	p8

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-10.8%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are already retreating and demand is weak. A correction may be underway — the market is contracting on both the supply and demand side.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY+21.4%

Days on Market YoY+11.7%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Wilmington's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Brunswick County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Pender County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Wilmington, NC shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Brunswick County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Pender County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Brunswick CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	33.3%	50	100	50
New Hanover County	50	Average	33.3%	0	50	100
Pender CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	33.3%	100	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	61	67	99	88	6	8
2025-10	Hyp	61	66	99	88	5	8
2025-08	Hyp	66	78	99	88	25	8
2025-06	Ress	70	67	99	86	59	8
2025-04	Ress	65	50	99	86	46	8
2025-03	Hyp	58	38	99	85	19	8
2025-01	Hyp	57	33	99	85	16	8
2024-10	Hyp	67	68	99	85	40	8
2024-07	Ress	58	46	99	84	8	8
2024-05	Ress	61	62	99	84	13	8
2024-02	Ress	61	56	99	85	19	8
2024-01	Hyp	61	46	99	85	27	8
2023-11	Hyp	58	49	99	80	12	8
2023-09	Rec	62	71	99	81	12	8
2023-07	Rec	62	68	99	81	16	8
2023-06	Hyp	65	83	99	79	19	8
2023-04	Hyp	65	89	99	79	13	8
2023-03	Ress	66	98	99	82	8	8
2023-01	Ress	65	99	99	82	4	8
2022-10	Ress	65	95	99	79	7	8
2022-07	Ress	64	91	99	79	10	8
2022-06	Hyp	64	92	99	77	8	8
2022-05	Exp	67	91	99	77	25	8
2022-03	Exp	66	85	99	72	29	8
2022-02	Rec	65	84	99	72	25	8
2021-12	Rec	63	75	99	67	26	9
2021-11	Exp	62	75	99	67	20	9
2021-09	Exp	62	80	99	68	16	9
2021-06	Exp	60	76	99	66	12	9
2021-05	Rec	60	78	99	66	8	9
2021-03	Rec	58	71	99	64	8	9
2021-02	Exp	59	67	99	64	13	9
2020-12	Exp	59	50	99	80	16	9
2020-11	Rec	60	57	99	80	14	9
2020-09	Rec	62	71	99	80	14	9
2020-06	Exp	65	71	99	79	31	9
2020-04	Exp	68	59	99	79	65	9
2020-03	Rec	65	91	99	82	7	9
2020-01	Rec	65	94	99	82	4	9
2019-12	Exp	64	92	99	80	1	11
2019-10	Exp	63	88	99	80	1	11
2019-07	Exp	62	73	99	79	9	11
2019-04	Exp	66	89	99	80	16	11
2019-01	Exp	63	81	99	76	9	11

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022