Rankings/Wichita, KS

Wichita, KS

NeutralTier 1CBSA 48620Compare

Risk Rank: #94 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +5

54score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Wichita experienced a market correction from late 2024 through early 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 3 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Wichita's housing market shows average risk, ranking 94th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and permit growth. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p74 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p65 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Employment

p64 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+17% YoY) and days on market are up +0% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+17.2%p67

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p46

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.4%p89

Months in status20

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum38

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth65

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita57

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability27

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment64

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration74

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.8%	p38
Permit Growth	+6.3%	p65
Permits/1K Pop	4.68	p57
Affordability	0.25	p27
Employment	-0.0%	p64
Net AGI Migration	-$28K	p74

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+6.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY+17.2%

Days on Market YoY+0.0%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 3 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Wichita's counties diverge significantly — Harvey County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Butler County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High24.3Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Wichita, KS shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Harvey County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Butler County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Harvey CountyRisk Driver	78	High Risk	25.0%	67	100	67
Sumner County	56	Elevated	25.0%	100	67	0
Sedgwick County	55	Average	25.0%	33	33	100
Butler CountyStabilizer	11	Low Risk	25.0%	0	0	33

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	44	41	23	25	45	73
2025-09	Hyp	49	38	23	25	80	73
2025-07	Hyp	48	34	23	25	75	73
2025-04	Hyp	48	35	23	26	79	73
2025-02	Ress	53	56	23	28	85	73
2024-12	Ress	49	50	23	27	65	73
2024-11	Hyp	45	40	23	27	54	73
2024-09	Ress	43	46	23	28	31	73
2024-07	Ress	45	63	23	28	30	73
2024-06	Hyp	46	69	23	27	31	73
2024-04	Hyp	46	74	23	27	21	73
2024-01	Rec	50	72	23	26	51	73
2023-11	Rec	52	89	23	33	41	73
2023-10	Ress	52	88	23	33	38	73
2023-08	Rec	48	73	23	30	34	73
2023-07	Hyp	48	71	23	30	38	73
2023-05	Hyp	44	52	23	27	34	73
2023-03	Ress	41	47	23	26	23	73
2023-01	Ress	43	54	23	26	29	73
2022-10	Rec	45	53	23	21	44	73
2022-08	Rec	50	47	23	22	79	73
2022-07	Exp	46	44	23	22	58	73
2022-05	Exp	46	25	23	22	76	73
2022-02	Exp	43	22	23	22	65	73
2022-01	Rec	44	28	23	22	66	73
2021-11	Rec	40	19	23	23	54	64
2021-09	Exp	44	25	23	26	72	64
2021-07	Exp	45	25	23	26	80	64
2021-04	Rec	48	59	23	30	57	64
2021-02	Rec	47	42	23	26	73	64
2020-12	Exp	52	69	23	19	72	74
2020-10	Exp	53	78	23	19	72	74
2020-08	Rec	53	86	23	20	60	74
2020-06	Rec	53	68	23	20	77	74
2020-04	Exp	46	42	23	20	61	74
2020-02	Exp	44	56	23	19	37	74
2020-01	Rec	43	66	23	19	20	74
2019-11	Rec	39	42	23	18	24	75
2019-10	Exp	39	42	23	18	23	75
2019-08	Exp	40	32	23	18	37	75
2019-07	Rec	37	26	23	18	28	75
2019-05	Rec	40	59	23	19	11	75
2019-03	Exp	36	24	23	18	22	75
2019-01	Exp	37	26	23	18	28	75

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022