Rankings/Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA

Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 47940Compare

Risk Rank: #158 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -1

48score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Waterloo's housing market shows average risk, ranking 158th of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 4 months. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Waterloo experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+25% YoY) and days on market are up -5% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

4 months in current phase·from Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and migration, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp69

YoY permit change

Migrationp66

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump45

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+25% YoY) and days on market are up -5% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+25.4%p75

Days on Market YoY

-4.5%p39

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.3%p60

Months in status26

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+2.7%p45

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+9.2%p69

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.46p29

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.27p43

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.7%p34

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$12Kp66

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+9.2%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Building is elevated but demand is cooling. Early warning of supply-demand imbalance — if liquidity continues to soften, this pipeline could become a problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorManufacturing 26.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Waterloo's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Bremer County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Grundy County anchors the lower end.

Moderate9.7Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Waterloo, IA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Bremer County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Grundy County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Black Hawk County	62	Elevated	77.7%	0	50	100
Bremer CountyRisk Driver	62	Elevated	14.9%	50	100	50
Grundy CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	7.3%	100	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	37	35	9	42	43	71
2025-09	Hyp	36	22	9	42	53	71
2025-08	Rec	43	18	9	42	96	71
2025-07	Hyp	41	14	9	42	91	71
2025-05	Ress	48	47	9	51	92	71
2025-03	Ress	43	14	9	43	99	71
2025-01	Hyp	45	36	9	43	90	71
2024-12	Ress	49	49	9	47	98	71
2024-10	Ress	48	39	9	47	99	71
2024-09	Hyp	52	65	9	51	99	71
2024-08	Ress	54	76	9	51	98	71
2024-06	Ress	55	78	9	51	99	71
2024-05	Hyp	52	67	9	51	97	71
2024-04	Ress	51	56	9	51	97	71
2024-02	Ress	44	33	9	47	87	71
2024-01	Hyp	46	39	9	47	93	71
2023-11	Hyp	57	82	9	69	94	71
2023-10	Exp	58	93	9	69	89	71
2023-08	Exp	52	59	9	65	91	71
2023-07	Rec	50	46	9	65	90	71
2023-05	Rec	57	77	9	71	96	71
2023-04	Ress	56	74	9	71	93	71
2023-03	Hyp	56	78	9	69	88	71
2023-02	Exp	57	81	9	68	96	71
2022-12	Exp	45	36	9	44	91	71
2022-10	Rec	45	29	9	44	97	71
2022-08	Rec	47	38	9	49	97	71
2022-07	Exp	45	26	9	49	97	71
2022-05	Exp	42	10	9	47	97	71
2022-02	Exp	41	1	9	44	100	71
2021-12	Rec	41	1	8	42	99	77
2021-10	Rec	40	1	8	42	95	77
2021-09	Exp	40	4	8	48	82	77
2021-07	Exp	41	4	8	48	91	77
2021-05	Rec	38	8	8	53	61	77
2021-03	Rec	35	5	8	55	44	77
2021-01	Exp	36	6	8	55	51	77
2020-11	Exp	35	10	8	47	65	63
2020-10	Rec	33	7	8	47	52	63
2020-08	Rec	28	4	8	47	30	63
2020-05	Rec	35	8	8	49	62	63
2020-04	Exp	33	12	8	49	45	63
2020-02	Exp	39	4	8	49	93	63
2019-11	Exp	38	5	8	50	83	67
2019-09	Rec	40	9	8	51	90	67
2019-07	Rec	42	14	8	51	91	67
2019-06	Exp	39	5	8	50	84	67
2019-04	Exp	39	17	8	50	76	67
2019-03	Rec	36	9	8	52	60	67
2019-01	Rec	38	4	8	52	82	67

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023