Rankings/Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA

Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 47940Compare

Risk Rank: #158 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -1

48score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Waterloo experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 4 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Waterloo's housing market shows average risk, ranking 158th of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 4 months. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and permit growth. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p71 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p70 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Affordability

p43 (below average risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+25% YoY) and days on market are up -5% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+25.4%p75

Days on Market YoY

-4.5%p39

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.4%p71

Months in status26

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum40

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth70

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita30

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability43

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment33

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration71

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.9%	p40
Permit Growth	+9.2%	p70
Permits/1K Pop	2.46	p30
Affordability	0.27	p43
Employment	+0.7%	p33
Net AGI Migration	-$21K	p71

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+9.2%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Building is elevated but demand is cooling. Early warning of supply-demand imbalance — if liquidity continues to soften, this pipeline could become a problem.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY+25.4%

Days on Market YoY-4.5%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Waterloo's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Bremer County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Grundy County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Waterloo, IA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Bremer County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Grundy County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Bremer CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	33.3%	50	100	50
Black Hawk County	50	Average	33.3%	0	50	100
Grundy CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	33.3%	100	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	37	35	9	42	43	71
2025-09	Hyp	36	22	9	42	53	71
2025-08	Rec	43	18	9	42	96	71
2025-07	Hyp	41	14	9	42	91	71
2025-05	Ress	48	47	9	51	92	71
2025-03	Ress	43	14	9	43	99	71
2025-01	Hyp	45	36	9	43	90	71
2024-12	Ress	49	49	9	47	98	71
2024-10	Ress	48	39	9	47	99	71
2024-09	Hyp	52	65	9	51	99	71
2024-08	Ress	54	76	9	51	98	71
2024-06	Ress	55	78	9	51	99	71
2024-05	Hyp	52	67	9	51	97	71
2024-04	Ress	51	56	9	51	97	71
2024-02	Ress	44	33	9	47	87	71
2024-01	Hyp	46	39	9	47	93	71
2023-11	Hyp	57	82	9	69	94	71
2023-10	Exp	58	93	9	69	89	71
2023-08	Exp	52	59	9	65	91	71
2023-07	Rec	50	46	9	65	90	71
2023-05	Rec	57	77	9	71	96	71
2023-04	Ress	56	74	9	71	93	71
2023-03	Hyp	56	78	9	69	88	71
2023-02	Exp	57	81	9	68	96	71
2022-12	Exp	45	36	9	44	91	71
2022-10	Rec	45	29	9	44	97	71
2022-08	Rec	47	38	9	49	97	71
2022-07	Exp	45	26	9	49	97	71
2022-05	Exp	42	10	9	47	97	71
2022-02	Exp	41	1	9	44	100	71
2021-12	Rec	41	1	8	42	99	77
2021-10	Rec	40	1	8	42	95	77
2021-09	Exp	40	4	8	48	82	77
2021-07	Exp	41	4	8	48	91	77
2021-05	Rec	38	8	8	53	61	77
2021-03	Rec	35	5	8	55	44	77
2021-01	Exp	36	6	8	55	51	77
2020-11	Exp	35	10	8	47	65	63
2020-10	Rec	33	7	8	47	52	63
2020-08	Rec	28	4	8	47	30	63
2020-05	Rec	35	8	8	49	62	63
2020-04	Exp	33	12	8	49	45	63
2020-02	Exp	39	4	8	49	93	63
2019-11	Exp	38	5	8	50	83	67
2019-09	Rec	40	9	8	51	90	67
2019-07	Rec	42	14	8	51	91	67
2019-06	Exp	39	5	8	50	84	67
2019-04	Exp	39	17	8	50	76	67
2019-03	Rec	36	9	8	52	60	67
2019-01	Rec	38	4	8	52	82	67

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022