Rankings/Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA

Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 47940Compare

Risk Rank: #3 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↑ +23

70score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Waterloo's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 3rd of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Waterloo experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +5% pace with homes taking +2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and permit growth, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp100

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp93

YoY permit change

Price Momentump75

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +5% pace with homes taking +2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+5.2%p54

Days on Market YoY

+2.0%p51

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.2%p79

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+2.3%p75

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+49.1%p93

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

3.01p36

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p48

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-3.6%p100

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$12Kp66

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+49.1%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorManufacturing 26.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Waterloo's counties diverge significantly — Black Hawk County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Bremer County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High18.3Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Waterloo, IA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Black Hawk County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Bremer County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Black Hawk CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	77.7%	50	50	100
Grundy County	50	Average	7.3%	100	100	0
Bremer CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	14.9%	0	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Rec	66	56	90	48	100	66
2025-12	Hyp	48	45	69	43	34	66
2025-10	Hyp	36	29	9	42	48	71
2025-08	Rec	43	18	9	42	96	71
2025-07	Hyp	41	14	9	42	91	71
2025-05	Ress	48	47	9	51	92	71
2025-03	Ress	43	14	9	43	99	71
2025-01	Hyp	45	36	9	43	90	71
2024-12	Ress	49	49	9	47	98	71
2024-10	Ress	48	39	9	47	99	71
2024-09	Hyp	52	65	9	51	99	71
2024-08	Ress	54	76	9	51	98	71
2024-06	Ress	55	78	9	51	99	71
2024-05	Hyp	52	67	9	51	97	71
2024-04	Ress	51	56	9	51	97	71
2024-02	Ress	44	33	9	47	87	71
2024-01	Hyp	46	39	9	47	93	71
2023-11	Hyp	57	82	9	69	94	71
2023-10	Exp	58	93	9	69	89	71
2023-08	Exp	52	59	9	65	91	71
2023-07	Rec	50	46	9	65	90	71
2023-05	Rec	57	77	9	71	96	71
2023-04	Ress	56	74	9	71	93	71
2023-03	Hyp	56	78	9	69	88	71
2023-02	Exp	57	81	9	68	96	71
2022-12	Exp	45	36	9	44	91	71
2022-10	Rec	45	29	9	44	97	71
2022-08	Rec	47	38	9	49	97	71
2022-07	Exp	45	26	9	49	97	71
2022-05	Exp	42	10	9	47	97	71
2022-02	Exp	41	1	9	44	100	71
2021-12	Rec	41	1	8	42	99	77
2021-10	Rec	40	1	8	42	95	77
2021-09	Exp	40	4	8	48	82	77
2021-07	Exp	41	4	8	48	91	77
2021-05	Rec	38	8	8	53	61	77
2021-03	Rec	35	5	8	55	44	77
2021-01	Exp	36	6	8	55	51	77
2020-11	Exp	35	10	8	47	65	63
2020-10	Rec	33	7	8	47	52	63
2020-08	Rec	28	4	8	47	30	63
2020-05	Rec	35	8	8	49	62	63
2020-04	Exp	33	12	8	49	45	63
2020-02	Exp	39	4	8	49	93	63
2019-11	Exp	38	5	8	50	83	67
2019-09	Rec	40	9	8	51	90	67
2019-07	Rec	42	14	8	51	91	67
2019-06	Exp	39	5	8	50	84	67
2019-04	Exp	39	17	8	50	76	67
2019-03	Rec	36	9	8	52	60	67
2019-01	Rec	38	4	8	52	82	67

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023