US Metro Real Estate Intelligence
Rankings/Waterbury-Shelton, CT

Waterbury-Shelton, CT

NeutralTier 1CBSA 47930Compare
Risk Rank: #55 of 287Month: 2025-12
58score
Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Waterbury's housing market shows average risk, ranking 55th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and employment. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is not yet assessed and valuation is not yet assessed.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum
p94 (highest risk decile)
12-month HPI change
Employment
p93 (highest risk decile)
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Permit Growth
p74 (moderate)
YoY permit change
Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum94

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth74

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita8

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability15

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment93

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration62

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

MetricValuePctile
Price Momentum+6.1%p94
Permit Growth+13.2%p74
Permits/1K Pop1.23p8
Affordability0.23p15
Employment-1.1%p93
Net AGI Migration-$7Kp62
National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable
Bank Lending Standards
-5.7Normal
Rate Change (YoY)
-74 bpsNormal
Mortgage Risk Premium
+189 bpsElevated
Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio
0.91High
Completion-Permit Divergence
-3.2 ppNormal
Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4
Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History
First scoring month — history will build with each monthly refresh.
Data Vintages
Price (HPI)2025-Q3
Permits2025-12
Income2024
Employment2025-12
Migration2022