Rankings/Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

NeutralTier 1CBSA 47900Compare

Risk Rank: #140 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +10

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Washington's housing market shows average risk, ranking 140th of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 7 months. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Significant oversupply — conditions increasingly favor buyers over sellers.

Washington experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory has surged +33% YoY with days on market up +16% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

7 months in current phase·from Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and migration, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp98

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migrationp98

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump44

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +33% YoY with days on market up +16% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+32.8%p82

Days on Market YoY

+16.0%p76

Months in status12

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.8%p36

Months in status50

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+2.6%p44

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-17.7%p21

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.76p34

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.18p2

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-1.6%p98

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$4Mp98

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-17.7%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both supply and demand are in contraction. The market is in full retreat — builders have stopped and buyers have pulled back.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 50.5%

5 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Washington's 23 counties show moderate divergence — Loudoun County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Prince George's County anchors the lower end.

Moderate14.9

23 of 23 counties scored

Washington, DC-VA-MD-WV shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Loudoun County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Prince George's County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Fairfax city<5%	78	High Risk	0.4%	95	100	73
Loudoun CountyRisk Driver	74	Elevated	6.9%	45	95	68
Charles County<5%	72	Elevated	2.7%	77	86	32
Falls Church city<5%	69	Elevated	0.2%	100	68	95
Prince William County	64	Elevated	7.7%	82	59	64
Frederick County<5%	64	Elevated	4.5%	68	55	55
Montgomery County	62	Elevated	16.9%	36	82	77
Spotsylvania County<5%	58	Elevated	2.3%	91	32	36
Fairfax County	57	Elevated	18.2%	64	50	82
Warren County<5%	55	Average	0.7%	55	73	27
Rappahannock County<5%	53	Average	0.1%	86	45	14
Culpeper County<5%	52	Average	0.9%	9	91	18
Fauquier County<5%	52	Average	1.2%	50	77	23
Arlington County<5%	50	Average	3.7%	59	9	91
Jefferson County<5%	48	Average	0.9%	27	64	0
District of Columbia	40	Below Average	10.8%	0	23	100
Manassas city<5%	38	Below Average	0.7%	73	27	45
Manassas Park city<5%	33	Below Average	0.3%	5	41	5
Stafford County<5%	32	Below Average	2.6%	23	36	41
Alexandria city<5%	30	Below Average	2.5%	32	0	86
Prince George's CountyStabilizer	28	Below Average	15.2%	14	14	59
Fredericksburg city<5%	23	Low Risk	0.5%	18	5	50
Clarke County<5%	18	Low Risk	0.2%	41	18	9

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	52	40	31	1	98	98
2025-09	Hyp	48	37	31	1	79	98
2025-06	Hyp	48	41	31	1	77	98
2025-05	Ress	43	37	31	1	49	98
2025-03	Ress	42	30	31	1	48	98
2024-12	Rec	40	44	31	1	22	98
2024-11	Hyp	41	50	31	1	21	98
2024-09	Rec	41	58	31	1	17	98
2024-07	Hyp	42	50	31	1	28	98
2024-05	Hyp	46	51	31	1	54	98
2024-04	Exp	46	46	31	1	54	98
2024-02	Exp	43	41	31	2	45	98
2023-11	Exp	44	32	31	2	61	98
2023-08	Rec	45	33	31	2	63	98
2023-06	Rec	42	33	31	2	43	98
2023-03	Rec	40	17	31	2	50	98
2023-02	Ress	41	16	31	2	57	98
2022-12	Ress	44	9	31	3	80	98
2022-11	Hyp	43	8	31	3	73	98
2022-10	Rec	43	6	31	3	76	98
2022-08	Exp	40	4	31	3	64	98
2022-06	Exp	43	9	31	3	72	98
2022-03	Exp	40	8	31	3	60	98
2022-02	Rec	41	9	31	3	63	98
2021-12	Rec	39	10	31	2	52	98
2021-09	Ress	40	12	31	2	58	98
2021-07	Exp	41	14	31	2	57	98
2021-05	Exp	46	23	31	3	76	98
2021-04	Rec	48	22	31	3	91	98
2021-02	Rec	46	26	31	3	76	98
2021-01	Exp	46	28	31	3	72	98
2020-11	Exp	45	26	31	2	74	98
2020-08	Rec	43	24	31	2	62	98
2020-06	Rec	46	29	31	2	73	98
2020-03	Exp	40	22	31	2	48	98
2020-01	Exp	40	26	31	2	41	98
2019-12	Rec	41	25	31	2	44	99
2019-10	Rec	41	29	31	2	42	99
2019-07	Rec	42	25	31	2	51	99
2019-04	Rec	41	22	31	2	51	99
2019-03	Exp	40	21	31	2	47	99
2019-01	Exp	42	21	31	2	58	99

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023