Rankings/Warner Robins, GA

Warner Robins, GA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 47580Compare

Risk Rank: #203 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +6

44score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Warner Robins experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recession for 3 months·Previously: Recession

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Warner Robins's housing market shows average risk, ranking 203rd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by employment and permits per capita. The market is in Recession phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment

p95 (highest risk decile)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capita

p74 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Migration

p46 (below average risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +37% YoY with days on market up +22% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+37.1%p84

Days on Market YoY

+21.8%p83

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+4.2%p96

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum28

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth12

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita74

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability8

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment95

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration46

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.1%	p28
Permit Growth	-24.9%	p12
Permits/1K Pop	6.63	p74
Affordability	0.21	p8
Employment	-1.3%	p95
Net AGI Migration	+$21K	p46

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-24.9%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both supply and demand are in contraction. The market is in full retreat — builders have stopped and buyers have pulled back.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY+37.1%

Days on Market YoY+21.8%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Ress	55	67	31	7	94	45
2025-09	Hyp	57	85	31	7	91	45
2025-07	Ress	42	49	31	7	34	45
2025-05	Ress	44	22	31	6	76	45
2025-04	Exp	40	30	31	6	43	45
2025-02	Exp	53	97	31	10	51	45
2024-12	Rec	38	31	31	5	34	45
2024-10	Rec	35	33	31	5	14	45
2024-09	Exp	50	92	31	9	40	45
2024-07	Exp	52	91	31	9	50	45
2024-06	Rec	44	67	31	7	31	45
2024-04	Rec	41	40	31	7	41	45
2024-03	Hyp	38	26	31	7	33	45
2024-02	Rec	40	28	31	7	42	45
2023-12	Rec	43	46	31	5	48	45
2023-11	Hyp	43	62	31	5	30	45
2023-09	Hyp	42	80	31	5	9	45
2023-08	Rec	46	88	31	5	23	45
2023-07	Hyp	52	91	31	5	53	45
2023-05	Hyp	52	100	31	7	48	45
2023-04	Ress	56	100	31	7	72	45
2023-02	Ress	52	98	31	7	50	45
2022-11	Ress	57	85	31	7	88	45
2022-10	Hyp	58	85	31	7	93	45
2022-08	Hyp	56	74	31	5	94	45
2022-06	Ress	51	68	31	5	75	45
2022-04	Ress	50	65	31	5	73	45
2022-01	Hyp	51	61	31	5	81	45
2021-12	Rec	50	44	31	2	88	51
2021-11	Ress	49	46	31	2	81	51
2021-10	Hyp	46	47	31	2	59	51
2021-09	Exp	45	24	31	1	79	51
2021-07	Exp	46	21	31	1	86	51
2021-04	Rec	40	20	31	1	56	51
2021-02	Rec	35	14	31	1	27	51
2021-01	Exp	32	7	31	1	19	51
2020-11	Exp	31	10	31	2	19	38
2020-10	Rec	32	16	31	2	24	38
2020-08	Rec	38	57	31	2	19	38
2020-05	Rec	30	18	31	2	10	38
2020-02	Exp	44	96	31	4	13	38
2019-12	Exp	38	68	31	3	0	40
2019-09	Rec	27	4	31	2	3	40
2019-07	Rec	27	6	31	2	0	40
2019-06	Exp	39	72	31	3	4	40
2019-04	Exp	42	74	31	3	17	40
2019-03	Rec	30	15	31	2	11	40
2019-01	Rec	32	19	31	2	17	40

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022