Rankings/Warner Robins, GA

Warner Robins, GA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 47580Compare

Risk Rank: #223 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +3

41score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Warner Robins's housing market shows average risk, ranking 223rd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains.

Warner Robins experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025.

Inventory has surged +37% YoY with days on market up +22% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Recession

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and permits per capita, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp95

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap74

Permits per 1,000 residents

Migrationp50

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +37% YoY with days on market up +22% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+37.1%p84

Days on Market YoY

+21.8%p83

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+5.6%p98

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-0.1%p6

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-24.9%p13

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

6.63p74

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.21p6

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-1.3%p95

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$4Kp50

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-24.9%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both supply and demand are in contraction. The market is in full retreat — builders have stopped and buyers have pulled back.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 41%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Ress	55	67	31	7	94	45
2025-09	Hyp	57	85	31	7	91	45
2025-07	Ress	42	49	31	7	34	45
2025-05	Ress	44	22	31	6	76	45
2025-04	Exp	40	30	31	6	43	45
2025-02	Exp	53	97	31	10	51	45
2024-12	Rec	38	31	31	5	34	45
2024-10	Rec	35	33	31	5	14	45
2024-09	Exp	50	92	31	9	40	45
2024-07	Exp	52	91	31	9	50	45
2024-06	Rec	44	67	31	7	31	45
2024-04	Rec	41	40	31	7	41	45
2024-03	Hyp	38	26	31	7	33	45
2024-02	Rec	40	28	31	7	42	45
2023-12	Rec	43	46	31	5	48	45
2023-11	Hyp	43	62	31	5	30	45
2023-09	Hyp	42	80	31	5	9	45
2023-08	Rec	46	88	31	5	23	45
2023-07	Hyp	52	91	31	5	53	45
2023-05	Hyp	52	100	31	7	48	45
2023-04	Ress	56	100	31	7	72	45
2023-02	Ress	52	98	31	7	50	45
2022-11	Ress	57	85	31	7	88	45
2022-10	Hyp	58	85	31	7	93	45
2022-08	Hyp	56	74	31	5	94	45
2022-06	Ress	51	68	31	5	75	45
2022-04	Ress	50	65	31	5	73	45
2022-01	Hyp	51	61	31	5	81	45
2021-12	Rec	50	44	31	2	88	51
2021-11	Ress	49	46	31	2	81	51
2021-10	Hyp	46	47	31	2	59	51
2021-09	Exp	45	24	31	1	79	51
2021-07	Exp	46	21	31	1	86	51
2021-04	Rec	40	20	31	1	56	51
2021-02	Rec	35	14	31	1	27	51
2021-01	Exp	32	7	31	1	19	51
2020-11	Exp	31	10	31	2	19	38
2020-10	Rec	32	16	31	2	24	38
2020-08	Rec	38	57	31	2	19	38
2020-05	Rec	30	18	31	2	10	38
2020-02	Exp	44	96	31	4	13	38
2019-12	Exp	38	68	31	3	0	40
2019-09	Rec	27	4	31	2	3	40
2019-07	Rec	27	6	31	2	0	40
2019-06	Exp	39	72	31	3	4	40
2019-04	Exp	42	74	31	3	17	40
2019-03	Rec	30	15	31	2	11	40
2019-01	Rec	32	19	31	2	17	40

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023