Rankings/Visalia, CA

Visalia, CA

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 47300Compare

Risk Rank: #10 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +9

68score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Visalia experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 2 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Visalia's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 10th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by permit growth and employment. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permit Growth

p85 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Employment

p79 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Affordability

p71 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +18% YoY with days on market up +12% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+18.2%p68

Days on Market YoY

+11.7%p70

Months in status10

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.6%p55

Months in status20

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum58

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth85

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita49

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability71

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment79

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration64

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.9%	p58
Permit Growth	+25.4%	p85
Permits/1K Pop	3.75	p49
Affordability	0.30	p71
Employment	-0.3%	p79
Net AGI Migration	-$12K	p64

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+25.4%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant overbuilding into weak demand. This is the highest-risk metro combination — new supply is delivering into a market that is already struggling to absorb existing inventory.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY+18.2%

Days on Market YoY+11.7%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 10 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	60	51	77	70	63	64
2025-10	Ress	62	45	77	70	77	64
2025-08	Ress	60	56	77	70	53	64
2025-07	Hyp	68	64	77	70	93	64
2025-06	Ress	63	78	77	69	54	64
2025-04	Ress	66	77	77	69	70	64
2025-02	Hyp	59	55	77	66	54	64
2024-12	Rec	59	67	77	69	42	64
2024-10	Rec	56	48	77	69	38	64
2024-09	Hyp	55	28	77	66	56	64
2024-08	Ress	54	32	77	66	49	64
2024-06	Ress	53	43	77	67	28	64
2024-05	Hyp	53	52	77	67	21	64
2024-03	Exp	50	46	77	66	8	64
2024-01	Exp	46	29	77	66	4	64
2023-10	Exp	49	48	77	49	18	64
2023-08	Rec	46	33	77	47	21	64
2023-06	Rec	44	17	77	44	24	64
2023-04	Hyp	46	20	77	44	32	64
2023-02	Hyp	48	33	77	45	29	64
2023-01	Ress	47	34	77	45	24	64
2022-11	Ress	49	38	77	63	14	64
2022-10	Hyp	48	39	77	63	8	64
2022-08	Hyp	53	60	77	66	13	64
2022-07	Ress	52	62	77	66	8	64
2022-05	Ress	52	65	77	64	4	64
2022-04	Hyp	52	67	77	64	3	64
2022-03	Exp	52	65	77	65	5	64
2022-02	Rec	52	62	77	65	4	64
2021-12	Rec	50	64	77	71	9	42
2021-11	Exp	51	67	77	71	11	42
2021-09	Exp	51	74	77	72	4	42
2021-06	Exp	57	73	77	71	44	42
2021-04	Rec	64	74	77	71	84	42
2021-02	Rec	61	84	77	71	56	42
2020-12	Exp	50	55	77	58	30	42
2020-10	Exp	48	48	77	58	27	42
2020-09	Rec	49	52	77	58	27	42
2020-07	Rec	50	68	77	58	21	42
2020-06	Exp	48	57	77	56	21	42
2020-04	Exp	44	50	77	56	5	42
2020-03	Rec	46	58	77	57	3	42
2020-01	Rec	47	56	77	57	11	42
2019-10	Rec	56	74	77	57	21	68
2019-07	Rec	47	32	77	55	14	68
2019-04	Exp	52	46	77	55	32	68
2019-02	Exp	56	47	77	55	52	68
2019-01	Exp	56	46	77	55	55	68

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022