Rankings/Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC

Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 47260Compare

Risk Rank: #76 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +9

56score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Virginia Beach experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Virginia Beach's housing market shows average risk, ranking 76th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by employment and migration. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment

p96 (highest risk decile)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration

p87 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p59 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking +9% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+8.4%p57

Days on Market YoY

+8.5%p65

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.3%p89

Months in status23

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum59

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth19

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita26

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability48

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment96

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration87

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.0%	p59
Permit Growth	-19.3%	p19
Permits/1K Pop	2.24	p26
Affordability	0.27	p48
Employment	-1.3%	p96
Net AGI Migration	-$97K	p87

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-19.2%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+8.4%

Days on Market YoY+8.5%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Virginia Beach's 18 counties show moderate divergence — Portsmouth city carries the most risk (High Risk) while York County anchors the lower end.

Moderate16.1

18 of 18 counties scored

Virginia Beach, VA-NC shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Portsmouth city contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while York County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Portsmouth cityRisk Driver	86	High Risk	5.6%	71	100	88
Virginia Beach city	71	Elevated	5.6%	47	71	94
Chesapeake city	69	Elevated	5.6%	65	65	76
Williamsburg city	63	Elevated	5.6%	100	29	59
James City County	63	Elevated	5.6%	88	18	82
Suffolk city	63	Elevated	5.6%	82	35	71
Camden County	57	Elevated	5.6%	59	88	24
Gates County	49	Average	5.6%	94	53	0
Currituck County	49	Average	5.6%	76	41	29
Isle of Wight County	47	Average	5.6%	29	76	35
Mathews County	41	Below Average	5.6%	18	94	12
Surry County	41	Below Average	5.6%	35	82	6
Norfolk city	39	Below Average	5.6%	12	6	100
Gloucester County	39	Below Average	5.6%	53	47	18
Poquoson city	37	Below Average	5.6%	6	59	47
Newport News city	35	Below Average	5.6%	41	0	65
Hampton city	30	Below Average	5.6%	24	24	41
York CountyStabilizer	22	Low Risk	5.6%	0	12	53

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	55	61	10	47	97	87
2025-09	Rec	56	73	10	47	92	87
2025-08	Hyp	56	80	10	47	81	87
2025-06	Hyp	54	85	10	45	72	87
2025-05	Ress	54	83	10	45	71	87
2025-03	Ress	52	82	10	45	62	87
2025-02	Hyp	54	79	10	45	75	87
2025-01	Rec	50	73	10	45	58	87
2024-11	Ress	48	74	10	44	45	87
2024-09	Hyp	42	51	10	40	38	87
2024-08	Ress	44	52	10	40	47	87
2024-06	Ress	42	50	10	40	38	87
2024-05	Hyp	42	44	10	40	42	87
2024-03	Hyp	43	54	10	41	36	87
2024-02	Exp	44	62	10	41	38	87
2023-12	Exp	45	64	10	40	42	87
2023-09	Exp	42	57	10	38	34	87
2023-07	Rec	43	62	10	38	34	87
2023-05	Rec	47	69	10	40	48	87
2023-04	Hyp	46	64	10	40	47	87
2023-03	Ress	41	37	10	37	49	87
2023-01	Ress	40	34	10	37	42	87
2022-12	Exp	46	43	10	42	66	87
2022-11	Rec	47	43	10	42	74	87
2022-09	Rec	45	25	10	40	78	87
2022-08	Exp	45	25	10	40	81	87
2022-06	Exp	46	27	10	42	81	87
2022-03	Exp	46	27	10	43	84	87
2022-02	Rec	47	23	10	43	92	87
2021-12	Rec	40	18	9	33	85	67
2021-10	Exp	40	23	9	33	83	67
2021-08	Exp	38	26	9	34	64	67
2021-05	Exp	38	24	9	35	62	67
2021-04	Rec	39	23	9	35	74	67
2021-02	Rec	38	38	9	38	49	67
2021-01	Exp	39	42	9	38	48	67
2020-11	Exp	35	40	9	35	46	55
2020-09	Rec	36	46	9	38	44	55
2020-07	Rec	37	35	9	37	61	55
2020-04	Exp	39	62	9	38	43	55
2020-02	Exp	39	52	9	38	53	55
2020-01	Rec	38	48	9	38	50	55
2019-11	Rec	44	46	9	36	59	89
2019-08	Rec	48	49	9	40	77	89
2019-06	Exp	42	17	9	36	72	89
2019-04	Exp	44	15	9	37	85	89
2019-01	Exp	40	15	9	39	62	89

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022