Rankings/Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC

Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 47260Compare

Risk Rank: #15 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↑ +12

66score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Virginia Beach's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 15th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Virginia Beach experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +9% pace with homes taking -3% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and employment, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp87

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp86

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp76

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +9% pace with homes taking -3% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+8.8%p58

Days on Market YoY

-2.6%p42

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+3.5%p94

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+1.9%p67

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+18.3%p76

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

3.01p36

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p47

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.6%p86

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$61Kp87

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+18.3%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Internal Structure

Virginia Beach's 18 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low5.9

18 of 18 counties scored

Virginia Beach, VA-NC shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Suffolk city contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Norfolk city anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
York County<5%	62	Elevated	4.0%	82	59	59
Suffolk cityRisk Driver	59	Elevated	5.5%	41	47	71
Isle of Wight County<5%	59	Elevated	2.2%	53	65	35
Surry County<5%	58	Elevated	0.4%	100	53	6
Gloucester County<5%	57	Elevated	2.2%	76	82	18
Chesapeake city	56	Elevated	14.1%	12	76	76
Hampton city	53	Average	7.7%	71	88	41
Mathews County<5%	53	Average	0.5%	94	41	12
Poquoson city<5%	53	Average	0.7%	47	24	53
Camden County<5%	50	Average	0.6%	6	71	24
Virginia Beach city	49	Average	25.5%	65	18	94
Newport News city	47	Average	10.3%	18	100	65
Currituck County<5%	44	Below Average	1.7%	24	29	29
Williamsburg city<5%	42	Below Average	0.9%	0	94	47
Portsmouth city	41	Below Average	5.4%	35	6	88
James City County<5%	41	Below Average	4.5%	29	12	82
Norfolk cityStabilizer	40	Below Average	13.1%	59	0	100
Gates County<5%	37	Below Average	0.6%	88	35	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Exp	67	68	77	47	87	87
2025-11	Rec	55	61	10	47	97	87
2025-09	Rec	56	73	10	47	92	87
2025-08	Hyp	56	80	10	47	81	87
2025-06	Hyp	54	85	10	45	72	87
2025-05	Ress	54	83	10	45	71	87
2025-03	Ress	52	82	10	45	62	87
2025-02	Hyp	54	79	10	45	75	87
2025-01	Rec	50	73	10	45	58	87
2024-11	Ress	48	74	10	44	45	87
2024-09	Hyp	42	51	10	40	38	87
2024-08	Ress	44	52	10	40	47	87
2024-06	Ress	42	50	10	40	38	87
2024-05	Hyp	42	44	10	40	42	87
2024-03	Hyp	43	54	10	41	36	87
2024-02	Exp	44	62	10	41	38	87
2023-12	Exp	45	64	10	40	42	87
2023-09	Exp	42	57	10	38	34	87
2023-07	Rec	43	62	10	38	34	87
2023-05	Rec	47	69	10	40	48	87
2023-04	Hyp	46	64	10	40	47	87
2023-03	Ress	41	37	10	37	49	87
2023-01	Ress	40	34	10	37	42	87
2022-12	Exp	46	43	10	42	66	87
2022-11	Rec	47	43	10	42	74	87
2022-09	Rec	45	25	10	40	78	87
2022-08	Exp	45	25	10	40	81	87
2022-06	Exp	46	27	10	42	81	87
2022-03	Exp	46	27	10	43	84	87
2022-02	Rec	47	23	10	43	92	87
2021-12	Rec	40	18	9	33	85	67
2021-10	Exp	40	23	9	33	83	67
2021-08	Exp	38	26	9	34	64	67
2021-05	Exp	38	24	9	35	62	67
2021-04	Rec	39	23	9	35	74	67
2021-02	Rec	38	38	9	38	49	67
2021-01	Exp	39	42	9	38	48	67
2020-11	Exp	35	40	9	35	46	55
2020-09	Rec	36	46	9	38	44	55
2020-07	Rec	37	35	9	37	61	55
2020-04	Exp	39	62	9	38	43	55
2020-02	Exp	39	52	9	38	53	55
2020-01	Rec	38	48	9	38	50	55
2019-11	Rec	44	46	9	36	59	89
2019-08	Rec	48	49	9	40	77	89
2019-06	Exp	42	17	9	36	72	89
2019-04	Exp	44	15	9	37	85	89
2019-01	Exp	40	15	9	39	62	89

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023