Rankings/Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC

Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 47260Compare

Risk Rank: #76 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +8

55score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Virginia Beach's housing market shows average risk, ranking 76th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Virginia Beach experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking +9% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and migration, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp96

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migrationp87

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump55

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking +9% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+8.4%p57

Days on Market YoY

+8.5%p65

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.1%p87

Months in status23

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+3.3%p55

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-19.3%p20

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.24p25

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.27p47

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-1.3%p96

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$61Kp87

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-19.2%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Internal Structure

Virginia Beach's 18 counties show moderate divergence — Portsmouth city carries the most risk (High Risk) while Hampton city anchors the lower end.

Moderate17.0

18 of 18 counties scored

Virginia Beach, VA-NC shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Portsmouth city contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Hampton city anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Portsmouth cityRisk Driver	78	High Risk	5.4%	71	100	88
Suffolk city	68	Elevated	5.5%	82	35	71
Camden County<5%	65	Elevated	0.6%	59	88	24
James City County<5%	63	Elevated	4.5%	88	18	82
Chesapeake city	62	Elevated	14.1%	65	65	76
Currituck County<5%	62	Elevated	1.7%	76	41	29
Virginia Beach city	59	Elevated	25.5%	47	71	94
Isle of Wight County<5%	54	Average	2.2%	29	76	35
Poquoson city<5%	52	Average	0.7%	6	59	47
Williamsburg city<5%	50	Average	0.9%	100	29	59
Surry County<5%	48	Average	0.4%	35	82	6
Mathews County<5%	46	Average	0.5%	18	94	12
Gates County<5%	41	Below Average	0.6%	94	53	0
Gloucester County<5%	38	Below Average	2.2%	53	47	18
Norfolk city	37	Below Average	13.1%	12	6	100
York County<5%	28	Below Average	4.0%	0	12	53
Newport News city	26	Below Average	10.3%	41	0	65
Hampton cityStabilizer	24	Low Risk	7.7%	24	24	41

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	55	61	10	47	97	87
2025-09	Rec	56	73	10	47	92	87
2025-08	Hyp	56	80	10	47	81	87
2025-06	Hyp	54	85	10	45	72	87
2025-05	Ress	54	83	10	45	71	87
2025-03	Ress	52	82	10	45	62	87
2025-02	Hyp	54	79	10	45	75	87
2025-01	Rec	50	73	10	45	58	87
2024-11	Ress	48	74	10	44	45	87
2024-09	Hyp	42	51	10	40	38	87
2024-08	Ress	44	52	10	40	47	87
2024-06	Ress	42	50	10	40	38	87
2024-05	Hyp	42	44	10	40	42	87
2024-03	Hyp	43	54	10	41	36	87
2024-02	Exp	44	62	10	41	38	87
2023-12	Exp	45	64	10	40	42	87
2023-09	Exp	42	57	10	38	34	87
2023-07	Rec	43	62	10	38	34	87
2023-05	Rec	47	69	10	40	48	87
2023-04	Hyp	46	64	10	40	47	87
2023-03	Ress	41	37	10	37	49	87
2023-01	Ress	40	34	10	37	42	87
2022-12	Exp	46	43	10	42	66	87
2022-11	Rec	47	43	10	42	74	87
2022-09	Rec	45	25	10	40	78	87
2022-08	Exp	45	25	10	40	81	87
2022-06	Exp	46	27	10	42	81	87
2022-03	Exp	46	27	10	43	84	87
2022-02	Rec	47	23	10	43	92	87
2021-12	Rec	40	18	9	33	85	67
2021-10	Exp	40	23	9	33	83	67
2021-08	Exp	38	26	9	34	64	67
2021-05	Exp	38	24	9	35	62	67
2021-04	Rec	39	23	9	35	74	67
2021-02	Rec	38	38	9	38	49	67
2021-01	Exp	39	42	9	38	48	67
2020-11	Exp	35	40	9	35	46	55
2020-09	Rec	36	46	9	38	44	55
2020-07	Rec	37	35	9	37	61	55
2020-04	Exp	39	62	9	38	43	55
2020-02	Exp	39	52	9	38	53	55
2020-01	Rec	38	48	9	38	50	55
2019-11	Rec	44	46	9	36	59	89
2019-08	Rec	48	49	9	40	77	89
2019-06	Exp	42	17	9	36	72	89
2019-04	Exp	44	15	9	37	85	89
2019-01	Exp	40	15	9	39	62	89

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023