Rankings/Vineland, NJ

Vineland, NJ

NeutralTier 1CBSA 47220Compare

Risk Rank: #203 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -12

44score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Vineland has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 64 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Vineland's housing market shows average risk, ranking 203rd of 287 metros. The market has been in Expansion for 64 months. Inventory is growing moderately (+14% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and affordability. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p71 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Affordability

p66 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Migration

p58 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking -12% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+13.9%p63

Days on Market YoY

-11.9%p26

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.9%p51

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum71

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth50

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita9

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability66

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment13

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration58

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.7%	p71
Permit Growth	-1.9%	p50
Permits/1K Pop	1.36	p9
Affordability	0.29	p66
Employment	+1.3%	p13
Net AGI Migration	-$9	p58

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

-1.9%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY+13.9%

Days on Market YoY-11.9%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	55	84	99	66	8	58
2025-09	Exp	56	93	99	66	8	58
2025-06	Exp	45	40	99	53	3	58
2025-03	Exp	57	100	99	63	8	58
2024-12	Exp	56	98	99	58	5	58
2024-09	Exp	60	88	99	58	40	58
2024-06	Exp	64	75	99	49	87	58
2024-03	Exp	64	74	99	43	98	58
2023-12	Exp	69	99	99	50	94	58
2023-09	Exp	65	86	99	45	88	58
2023-06	Exp	64	82	99	42	91	58
2023-03	Exp	60	67	99	37	82	58
2022-12	Exp	58	42	99	45	87	58
2022-09	Exp	55	65	99	46	45	58
2022-06	Exp	43	12	99	34	40	58
2022-03	Exp	56	71	99	45	46	58
2021-12	Exp	54	70	99	37	44	59
2021-09	Exp	57	68	99	33	71	59
2021-06	Exp	50	80	99	32	13	59
2021-03	Exp	56	92	99	32	40	59
2020-12	Exp	59	96	99	33	48	62
2020-09	Exp	51	68	99	28	36	62
2020-08	Rec	51	60	99	28	43	62
2020-06	Rec	49	25	99	26	70	62
2020-03	Rec	42	9	99	26	45	62
2019-12	Rec	54	29	99	26	80	73
2019-09	Rec	60	67	99	27	79	73
2019-06	Rec	59	71	99	28	66	73
2019-03	Exp	48	25	99	28	51	73
2019-01	Exp	45	4	99	28	49	73

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022