Rankings/Vineland, NJ

Vineland, NJ

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 47220Compare

Risk Rank: #239 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -19

36score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Vineland's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 239th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Vineland has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (+2% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and migration, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp64

Mortgage payment / income

Migrationp53

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp46

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+2% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+2.3%p51

Days on Market YoY

-15.3%p22

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+3.0%p92

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.7%p37

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-1.6%p46

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.19p8

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.31p64

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.7%p9

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$3Kp53

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

-1.6%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 19.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Exp	55	72	40	64	92	53
2025-12	Exp	42	60	50	63	14	53
2025-09	Exp	56	93	99	66	8	58
2025-06	Exp	45	40	99	53	3	58
2025-03	Exp	57	100	99	63	8	58
2024-12	Exp	56	98	99	58	5	58
2024-09	Exp	60	88	99	58	40	58
2024-06	Exp	64	75	99	49	87	58
2024-03	Exp	64	74	99	43	98	58
2023-12	Exp	69	99	99	50	94	58
2023-09	Exp	65	86	99	45	88	58
2023-06	Exp	64	82	99	42	91	58
2023-03	Exp	60	67	99	37	82	58
2022-12	Exp	58	42	99	45	87	58
2022-09	Exp	55	65	99	46	45	58
2022-06	Exp	43	12	99	34	40	58
2022-03	Exp	56	71	99	45	46	58
2021-12	Exp	54	70	99	37	44	59
2021-09	Exp	57	68	99	33	71	59
2021-06	Exp	50	80	99	32	13	59
2021-03	Exp	56	92	99	32	40	59
2020-12	Exp	59	96	99	33	48	62
2020-09	Exp	51	68	99	28	36	62
2020-08	Rec	51	60	99	28	43	62
2020-06	Rec	49	25	99	26	70	62
2020-03	Rec	42	9	99	26	45	62
2019-12	Rec	54	29	99	26	80	73
2019-09	Rec	60	67	99	27	79	73
2019-06	Rec	59	71	99	28	66	73
2019-03	Exp	48	25	99	28	51	73
2019-01	Exp	45	4	99	28	49	73

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023