Rankings/Vineland, NJ

Vineland, NJ

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 47220Compare

Risk Rank: #20 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↑ +15

63score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Vineland's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 20th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Vineland has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +7% pace with homes taking -9% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and employment, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump95

12-month HPI change

Employmentp95

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp64

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +7% pace with homes taking -9% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+7.4%p56

Days on Market YoY

-8.5%p31

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.3%p30

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+4.0%p95

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+4.5%p63

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.20p9

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.30p64

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-1.8%p95

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$3Kp53

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+4.5%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 19.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Exp	42	60	50	63	14	53
2025-10	Exp	56	90	99	66	6	58
2025-07	Exp	56	94	99	66	1	58
2025-04	Exp	49	68	99	53	3	58
2025-01	Exp	57	100	99	63	6	58
2024-10	Exp	57	88	99	58	23	58
2024-07	Exp	67	95	99	58	76	58
2024-04	Exp	66	80	99	49	96	58
2024-01	Exp	65	84	99	43	93	58
2023-10	Exp	68	97	99	50	92	58
2023-07	Exp	65	75	99	45	97	58
2023-04	Exp	68	97	99	42	99	58
2023-01	Exp	51	32	99	37	64	58
2022-10	Exp	55	44	99	45	67	58
2022-07	Exp	58	70	99	46	57	58
2022-04	Exp	41	20	99	34	21	58
2022-01	Exp	58	69	99	45	59	58
2021-10	Exp	55	66	99	37	56	59
2021-07	Exp	51	78	99	33	23	59
2021-04	Exp	56	82	99	32	50	59
2021-01	Exp	58	92	99	32	50	59
2020-10	Exp	57	95	99	33	38	62
2020-08	Rec	51	60	99	28	43	62
2020-06	Rec	49	25	99	26	70	62
2020-03	Rec	42	9	99	26	45	62
2019-12	Rec	54	29	99	26	80	73
2019-09	Rec	60	67	99	27	79	73
2019-06	Rec	59	71	99	28	66	73
2019-03	Exp	48	25	99	28	51	73
2019-01	Exp	45	4	99	28	49	73

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023