Rankings/Vineland, NJ

Vineland, NJ

NeutralTier 1CBSA 47220Compare

Risk Rank: #80 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↑ +10

55score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Vineland's housing market shows average risk, ranking 80th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Vineland has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and price momentum, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp92

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentump72

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp64

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+1.2%p50

Days on Market YoY

+4.4%p57

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.4%p70

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+2.1%p72

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-4.9%p40

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.14p7

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.30p64

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-1.0%p92

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$3Kp53

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-4.9%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 19.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Exp	63	95	63	64	95	53
2025-11	Exp	55	84	99	66	8	58
2025-08	Exp	55	93	99	66	1	58
2025-05	Exp	48	55	99	52	8	58
2025-02	Exp	58	100	99	63	10	58
2024-11	Exp	56	96	99	58	9	58
2024-08	Exp	68	94	99	58	84	58
2024-05	Exp	66	79	99	49	99	58
2024-02	Exp	65	81	99	43	96	58
2023-11	Exp	70	98	99	50	99	58
2023-08	Exp	64	80	99	45	87	58
2023-05	Exp	66	94	99	42	91	58
2023-02	Exp	53	47	99	37	62	58
2022-11	Exp	53	43	99	45	56	58
2022-08	Exp	54	68	99	46	37	58
2022-05	Exp	40	17	99	34	17	58
2022-02	Exp	57	71	99	45	53	58
2021-11	Exp	57	69	99	37	63	59
2021-08	Exp	56	73	99	33	57	59
2021-05	Exp	53	82	99	32	30	59
2021-02	Exp	55	92	99	32	35	59
2020-11	Exp	56	95	99	33	31	62
2020-08	Rec	51	60	99	28	43	62
2020-06	Rec	49	25	99	26	70	62
2020-03	Rec	42	9	99	26	45	62
2019-12	Rec	54	29	99	26	80	73
2019-09	Rec	60	67	99	27	79	73
2019-06	Rec	59	71	99	28	66	73
2019-03	Exp	48	25	99	28	51	73
2019-01	Exp	45	4	99	28	49	73

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023