Rankings/Vallejo, CA

Vallejo, CA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 46700Compare

Risk Rank: #273 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -19

21score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Vallejo's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 273rd of 273 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Vallejo experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is declining (-7% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and migration, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp56

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migrationp25

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp16

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-7% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-6.5%p41

Days on Market YoY

-6.4%p34

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.9%p86

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-0.3%p8

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-23.0%p11

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.62p11

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.25p16

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.3%p56

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$77Kp25

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-23.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 19.7%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	28	44	4	22	63	25
2025-12	Rec	29	17	1	21	96	25
2025-11	Hyp	41	8	51	19	99	29
2025-10	Ress	40	7	51	19	97	29
2025-08	Ress	40	5	51	19	98	29
2025-07	Hyp	40	6	51	19	95	29
2025-05	Hyp	40	8	51	21	92	29
2025-03	Ress	41	9	51	24	92	29
2025-01	Ress	40	9	51	24	88	29
2024-12	Hyp	43	13	51	27	96	29
2024-10	Hyp	42	12	51	27	94	29
2024-07	Hyp	36	10	51	27	62	29
2024-06	Ress	34	10	51	28	44	29
2024-04	Ress	28	7	51	28	10	29
2024-03	Hyp	28	13	51	31	6	29
2024-02	Exp	32	17	51	31	25	29
2023-12	Exp	27	20	51	17	5	29
2023-09	Exp	27	7	51	17	18	29
2023-08	Rec	32	8	51	17	47	29
2023-06	Rec	38	7	51	19	82	29
2023-03	Hyp	40	3	51	20	95	29
2023-01	Ress	38	2	51	20	88	29
2022-11	Ress	41	2	51	28	94	29
2022-10	Hyp	40	3	51	28	87	29
2022-08	Ress	31	2	51	32	33	29
2022-06	Ress	32	13	51	42	16	29
2022-03	Hyp	37	47	51	44	9	29
2022-02	Rec	38	49	51	44	12	29
2021-12	Hyp	46	60	51	41	18	66
2021-10	Hyp	46	63	51	41	15	66
2021-08	Exp	51	77	51	43	32	66
2021-06	Rec	59	76	51	43	79	66
2021-04	Rec	58	73	51	43	79	66
2021-03	Exp	59	65	51	39	93	66
2021-01	Exp	58	63	51	39	91	66
2020-10	Exp	47	31	51	27	90	43
2020-09	Rec	45	18	51	25	93	43
2020-07	Rec	42	15	51	25	76	43
2020-06	Exp	41	12	51	27	72	43
2020-04	Exp	41	17	51	27	67	43
2020-03	Rec	37	6	51	27	55	43
2020-01	Rec	39	5	51	27	67	43
2019-10	Rec	38	10	51	28	75	27
2019-07	Rec	34	7	51	30	47	27
2019-06	Hyp	34	6	51	30	52	27
2019-04	Hyp	33	10	51	30	40	27
2019-01	Hyp	41	66	51	34	30	27

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023