Rankings/Vallejo, CA

Vallejo, CA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 46700Compare

Risk Rank: #267 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -14

29score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Vallejo's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 267th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Vallejo experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking +28% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and migration, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp96

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migrationp25

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp21

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking +28% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+7.6%p57

Days on Market YoY

+27.8%p87

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.1%p66

Months in status43

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.8%p17

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-47.9%p1

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.75p16

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.24p21

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-1.3%p96

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$77Kp25

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-47.9%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 19.7%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	41	8	51	19	99	29
2025-10	Ress	40	7	51	19	97	29
2025-08	Ress	40	5	51	19	98	29
2025-07	Hyp	40	6	51	19	95	29
2025-05	Hyp	40	8	51	21	92	29
2025-03	Ress	41	9	51	24	92	29
2025-01	Ress	40	9	51	24	88	29
2024-12	Hyp	43	13	51	27	96	29
2024-10	Hyp	42	12	51	27	94	29
2024-07	Hyp	36	10	51	27	62	29
2024-06	Ress	34	10	51	28	44	29
2024-04	Ress	28	7	51	28	10	29
2024-03	Hyp	28	13	51	31	6	29
2024-02	Exp	32	17	51	31	25	29
2023-12	Exp	27	20	51	17	5	29
2023-09	Exp	27	7	51	17	18	29
2023-08	Rec	32	8	51	17	47	29
2023-06	Rec	38	7	51	19	82	29
2023-03	Hyp	40	3	51	20	95	29
2023-01	Ress	38	2	51	20	88	29
2022-11	Ress	41	2	51	28	94	29
2022-10	Hyp	40	3	51	28	87	29
2022-08	Ress	31	2	51	32	33	29
2022-06	Ress	32	13	51	42	16	29
2022-03	Hyp	37	47	51	44	9	29
2022-02	Rec	38	49	51	44	12	29
2021-12	Hyp	46	60	51	41	18	66
2021-10	Hyp	46	63	51	41	15	66
2021-08	Exp	51	77	51	43	32	66
2021-06	Rec	59	76	51	43	79	66
2021-04	Rec	58	73	51	43	79	66
2021-03	Exp	59	65	51	39	93	66
2021-01	Exp	58	63	51	39	91	66
2020-10	Exp	47	31	51	27	90	43
2020-09	Rec	45	18	51	25	93	43
2020-07	Rec	42	15	51	25	76	43
2020-06	Exp	41	12	51	27	72	43
2020-04	Exp	41	17	51	27	67	43
2020-03	Rec	37	6	51	27	55	43
2020-01	Rec	39	5	51	27	67	43
2019-10	Rec	38	10	51	28	75	27
2019-07	Rec	34	7	51	30	47	27
2019-06	Hyp	34	6	51	30	52	27
2019-04	Hyp	33	10	51	30	40	27
2019-01	Hyp	41	66	51	34	30	27

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023