Rankings/Vallejo, CA

Vallejo, CA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 46700Compare

Risk Rank: #281 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -14

29score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Vallejo experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 1 month·Previously: Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Vallejo's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 281st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by employment and migration. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment

p96 (highest risk decile)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration

p29 (below average risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordability

p21 (below average risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking +28% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+7.6%p57

Days on Market YoY

+27.8%p87

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.3%p81

Months in status43

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum11

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth1

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita16

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability21

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment96

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration29

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-0.4%	p11
Permit Growth	-47.9%	p1
Permits/1K Pop	1.75	p16
Affordability	0.24	p21
Employment	-1.3%	p96
Net AGI Migration	+$82K	p29

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-47.9%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+7.6%

Days on Market YoY+27.8%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	41	8	51	19	99	29
2025-10	Ress	40	7	51	19	97	29
2025-08	Ress	40	5	51	19	98	29
2025-07	Hyp	40	6	51	19	95	29
2025-05	Hyp	40	8	51	21	92	29
2025-03	Ress	41	9	51	24	92	29
2025-01	Ress	40	9	51	24	88	29
2024-12	Hyp	43	13	51	27	96	29
2024-10	Hyp	42	12	51	27	94	29
2024-07	Hyp	36	10	51	27	62	29
2024-06	Ress	34	10	51	28	44	29
2024-04	Ress	28	7	51	28	10	29
2024-03	Hyp	28	13	51	31	6	29
2024-02	Exp	32	17	51	31	25	29
2023-12	Exp	27	20	51	17	5	29
2023-09	Exp	27	7	51	17	18	29
2023-08	Rec	32	8	51	17	47	29
2023-06	Rec	38	7	51	19	82	29
2023-03	Hyp	40	3	51	20	95	29
2023-01	Ress	38	2	51	20	88	29
2022-11	Ress	41	2	51	28	94	29
2022-10	Hyp	40	3	51	28	87	29
2022-08	Ress	31	2	51	32	33	29
2022-06	Ress	32	13	51	42	16	29
2022-03	Hyp	37	47	51	44	9	29
2022-02	Rec	38	49	51	44	12	29
2021-12	Hyp	46	60	51	41	18	66
2021-10	Hyp	46	63	51	41	15	66
2021-08	Exp	51	77	51	43	32	66
2021-06	Rec	59	76	51	43	79	66
2021-04	Rec	58	73	51	43	79	66
2021-03	Exp	59	65	51	39	93	66
2021-01	Exp	58	63	51	39	91	66
2020-10	Exp	47	31	51	27	90	43
2020-09	Rec	45	18	51	25	93	43
2020-07	Rec	42	15	51	25	76	43
2020-06	Exp	41	12	51	27	72	43
2020-04	Exp	41	17	51	27	67	43
2020-03	Rec	37	6	51	27	55	43
2020-01	Rec	39	5	51	27	67	43
2019-10	Rec	38	10	51	28	75	27
2019-07	Rec	34	7	51	30	47	27
2019-06	Hyp	34	6	51	30	52	27
2019-04	Hyp	33	10	51	30	40	27
2019-01	Hyp	41	66	51	34	30	27

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022