Rankings/Valdosta, GA

Valdosta, GA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 46660Compare

Risk Rank: #94 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -12

54score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Valdosta has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Recession.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recession for 1 month·Previously: Expansion

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Valdosta's housing market shows average risk, ranking 94th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by employment and permits per capita. The market is in Recession phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment

p98 (highest risk decile)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capita

p70 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Migration

p57 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +37% YoY with days on market up +11% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+37.1%p84

Days on Market YoY

+11.3%p69

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

+6.3%p99

Months in status12

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum8

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth35

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita70

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability54

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment98

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration57

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-0.8%	p8
Permit Growth	-9.4%	p35
Permits/1K Pop	5.95	p70
Affordability	0.28	p54
Employment	-1.6%	p98
Net AGI Migration	+$3K	p57

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-9.4%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both supply and demand are in contraction. The market is in full retreat — builders have stopped and buyers have pulled back.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY+37.1%

Days on Market YoY+11.3%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	55	7	46	53	94	56
2025-09	Exp	58	22	46	53	98	56
2025-06	Exp	69	83	46	59	99	56
2025-03	Exp	61	44	46	58	90	56
2024-12	Exp	66	100	46	62	60	56
2024-09	Exp	52	18	46	46	72	56
2024-06	Exp	69	100	46	64	73	56
2024-03	Exp	66	93	46	47	79	56
2023-12	Exp	53	28	46	53	64	56
2023-09	Exp	60	30	46	59	94	56
2023-06	Exp	51	4	46	41	86	56
2023-03	Exp	60	37	46	51	94	56
2022-12	Exp	72	97	46	66	97	56
2022-09	Exp	66	72	46	56	92	56
2022-06	Exp	60	35	46	55	94	56
2022-03	Exp	63	54	46	55	97	56
2021-12	Exp	61	17	46	77	99	58
2021-09	Exp	67	52	46	81	96	58
2021-06	Exp	60	11	46	80	91	58
2021-03	Exp	52	25	46	83	28	58
2020-12	Rec	50	34	46	64	24	60
2020-10	Rec	49	11	46	64	39	60
2020-07	Rec	47	25	46	65	13	60
2020-04	Rec	59	100	46	69	9	60
2020-03	Exp	55	62	46	64	28	60
2020-01	Exp	46	1	46	64	34	60
2019-12	Rec	50	18	46	67	44	52
2019-10	Rec	48	26	46	67	26	52
2019-09	Exp	56	32	46	67	69	52
2019-07	Exp	62	80	46	67	55	52
2019-04	Exp	51	2	46	60	73	52
2019-03	Rec	67	86	46	70	78	52
2019-01	Rec	65	74	46	70	77	52

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022