Rankings/Valdosta, GA

Valdosta, GA

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 46660Compare

Risk Rank: #3 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):— +1

70score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Valdosta's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 3rd of 274 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Significant oversupply — conditions increasingly favor buyers over sellers. Valuations are also showing some stretch.

Valdosta experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory has surged +38% YoY with days on market up +32% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Home prices are outpacing rents (-5.3% rent-price ratio change), indicating some valuation compression.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and employment, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump100

12-month HPI change

Employmentp91

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap68

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +38% YoY with days on market up +32% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+38.2%p85

Days on Market YoY

+31.8%p90

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Compressed↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-5.3%p9

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+7.7%p100

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-2.7%p47

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.81p68

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.30p65

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.9%p91

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$4Kp51

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-2.7%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both supply and demand are in contraction. The market is in full retreat — builders have stopped and buyers have pulled back.

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Hyp	70	100	50	65	88	51
2025-12	Ress	67	84	35	63	98	51
2025-11	Exp	55	7	46	53	94	56
2025-09	Exp	58	22	46	53	98	56
2025-06	Exp	69	83	46	59	99	56
2025-03	Exp	61	44	46	58	90	56
2024-12	Exp	66	100	46	62	60	56
2024-09	Exp	52	18	46	46	72	56
2024-06	Exp	69	100	46	64	73	56
2024-03	Exp	66	93	46	47	79	56
2023-12	Exp	53	28	46	53	64	56
2023-09	Exp	60	30	46	59	94	56
2023-06	Exp	51	4	46	41	86	56
2023-03	Exp	60	37	46	51	94	56
2022-12	Exp	72	97	46	66	97	56
2022-09	Exp	66	72	46	56	92	56
2022-06	Exp	60	35	46	55	94	56
2022-03	Exp	63	54	46	55	97	56
2021-12	Exp	61	17	46	77	99	58
2021-09	Exp	67	52	46	81	96	58
2021-06	Exp	60	11	46	80	91	58
2021-03	Exp	52	25	46	83	28	58
2020-12	Rec	50	34	46	64	24	60
2020-10	Rec	49	11	46	64	39	60
2020-07	Rec	47	25	46	65	13	60
2020-04	Rec	59	100	46	69	9	60
2020-03	Exp	55	62	46	64	28	60
2020-01	Exp	46	1	46	64	34	60
2019-12	Rec	50	18	46	67	44	52
2019-10	Rec	48	26	46	67	26	52
2019-09	Exp	56	32	46	67	69	52
2019-07	Exp	62	80	46	67	55	52
2019-04	Exp	51	2	46	60	73	52
2019-03	Rec	67	86	46	70	78	52
2019-01	Rec	65	74	46	70	77	52

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023