Rankings/Utica-Rome, NY

Utica-Rome, NY

NeutralTier 1CBSA 46540Compare

Risk Rank: #64 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↑ +12

57score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Utica's housing market shows average risk, ranking 64th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains.

Utica experienced a market correction from mid-2026 through mid-2026.

Inventory has surged +39% YoY with days on market up +8% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recession

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and migration, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump97

12-month HPI change

Migrationp73

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp61

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +39% YoY with days on market up +8% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+38.7%p86

Days on Market YoY

+7.7%p63

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.0%p86

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+4.2%p97

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-2.8%p47

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

0.96p4

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.30p61

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

+0.2%p61

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$21Kp73

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-2.8%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Builders are already retreating and demand is weak. A correction may be underway — the market is contracting on both the supply and demand side.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 26.2%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Ress	62	100	51	61	81	73
2025-12	Rec	54	95	63	56	35	73
2025-11	Ress	50	96	58	59	15	69
2025-09	Ress	56	94	58	59	57	69
2025-08	Hyp	55	95	58	59	46	69
2025-06	Exp	45	28	58	43	70	69
2025-05	Rec	48	24	58	43	90	69
2025-03	Rec	54	61	58	46	89	69
2025-02	Exp	58	82	58	46	91	69
2024-12	Exp	58	99	58	50	73	69
2024-11	Rec	61	99	58	50	88	69
2024-09	Rec	54	83	58	48	62	69
2024-08	Ress	52	55	58	49	78	69
2024-06	Ress	54	76	58	49	68	69
2024-05	Hyp	58	96	58	49	73	69
2024-03	Hyp	52	88	58	38	60	69
2024-02	Exp	52	88	58	37	59	69
2023-12	Exp	60	82	58	60	90	69
2023-09	Exp	64	97	58	69	89	69
2023-07	Rec	65	97	58	69	93	69
2023-05	Rec	51	37	58	54	85	69
2023-02	Rec	48	20	58	50	86	69
2023-01	Exp	46	17	58	50	78	69
2022-11	Exp	55	60	58	46	95	69
2022-10	Rec	56	63	58	46	95	69
2022-08	Rec	50	37	58	41	96	69
2022-07	Exp	48	33	58	41	85	69
2022-05	Exp	50	35	58	39	99	69
2022-02	Exp	50	45	58	42	82	69
2021-12	Rec	46	26	58	40	84	65
2021-10	Rec	48	26	58	40	99	65
2021-09	Exp	52	45	58	42	98	65
2021-07	Exp	50	56	58	42	79	65
2021-04	Rec	35	12	58	36	36	65
2021-02	Rec	54	64	58	44	88	65
2021-01	Exp	55	73	58	44	90	65
2020-11	Exp	54	86	58	43	80	58
2020-09	Rec	51	76	58	40	74	58
2020-07	Rec	57	94	58	40	89	58
2020-04	Rec	57	98	58	43	85	58
2020-01	Rec	56	86	58	39	95	58
2019-12	Exp	55	79	58	38	81	72
2019-10	Exp	47	41	58	38	72	72
2019-09	Rec	39	3	58	31	68	72
2019-07	Rec	43	9	58	31	88	72
2019-05	Exp	39	20	58	33	51	72
2019-03	Exp	42	31	58	33	58	72
2019-01	Exp	47	51	58	33	66	72

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023