Rankings/Utica-Rome, NY

Utica-Rome, NY

NeutralTier 1CBSA 46540Compare

Risk Rank: #87 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -3

55score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Utica experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 1 month·Previously: Recession

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Valuation Lag — Liquidity is improving but rent-price ratios remain compressed.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Utica's housing market shows average risk, ranking 87th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and migration. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is compressed.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p97 (highest risk decile)

12-month HPI change

Migration

p70 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p64 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+18% YoY) and days on market are up +10% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+18.5%p68

Days on Market YoY

+9.7%p67

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-3.0%p23

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum97

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth64

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita5

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability60

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment34

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration70

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+7.0%	p97
Permit Growth	+6.0%	p64
Permits/1K Pop	0.99	p5
Affordability	0.28	p60
Employment	+0.7%	p34
Net AGI Migration	-$20K	p70

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+6.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY+18.5%

Days on Market YoY+9.7%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Ress	50	96	58	59	15	69
2025-09	Ress	56	94	58	59	57	69
2025-08	Hyp	55	95	58	59	46	69
2025-06	Exp	45	28	58	43	70	69
2025-05	Rec	48	24	58	43	90	69
2025-03	Rec	54	61	58	46	89	69
2025-02	Exp	58	82	58	46	91	69
2024-12	Exp	58	99	58	50	73	69
2024-11	Rec	61	99	58	50	88	69
2024-09	Rec	54	83	58	48	62	69
2024-08	Ress	52	55	58	49	78	69
2024-06	Ress	54	76	58	49	68	69
2024-05	Hyp	58	96	58	49	73	69
2024-03	Hyp	52	88	58	38	60	69
2024-02	Exp	52	88	58	37	59	69
2023-12	Exp	60	82	58	60	90	69
2023-09	Exp	64	97	58	69	89	69
2023-07	Rec	65	97	58	69	93	69
2023-05	Rec	51	37	58	54	85	69
2023-02	Rec	48	20	58	50	86	69
2023-01	Exp	46	17	58	50	78	69
2022-11	Exp	55	60	58	46	95	69
2022-10	Rec	56	63	58	46	95	69
2022-08	Rec	50	37	58	41	96	69
2022-07	Exp	48	33	58	41	85	69
2022-05	Exp	50	35	58	39	99	69
2022-02	Exp	50	45	58	42	82	69
2021-12	Rec	46	26	58	40	84	65
2021-10	Rec	48	26	58	40	99	65
2021-09	Exp	52	45	58	42	98	65
2021-07	Exp	50	56	58	42	79	65
2021-04	Rec	35	12	58	36	36	65
2021-02	Rec	54	64	58	44	88	65
2021-01	Exp	55	73	58	44	90	65
2020-11	Exp	54	86	58	43	80	58
2020-09	Rec	51	76	58	40	74	58
2020-07	Rec	57	94	58	40	89	58
2020-04	Rec	57	98	58	43	85	58
2020-01	Rec	56	86	58	39	95	58
2019-12	Exp	55	79	58	38	81	72
2019-10	Exp	47	41	58	38	72	72
2019-09	Rec	39	3	58	31	68	72
2019-07	Rec	43	9	58	31	88	72
2019-05	Exp	39	20	58	33	51	72
2019-03	Exp	42	31	58	33	58	72
2019-01	Exp	47	51	58	33	66	72

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022