Rankings/Urban Honolulu, HI

Urban Honolulu, HI

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 46520Compare

Risk Rank: #271 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— 0

26score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Urban Honolulu's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 271st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Urban Honolulu experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking +11% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp89

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp32

YoY permit change

Employmentp21

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking +11% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+7.7%p57

Days on Market YoY

+10.7%p68

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+5.0%p97

Months in status17

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-0.1%p5

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-11.7%p32

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.44p10

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.19p1

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+1.0%p21

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$71Kp89

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-11.7%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 20.7%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	30	36	28	2	10	88
2025-10	Hyp	28	31	28	2	8	88
2025-08	Hyp	26	17	28	2	6	88
2025-05	Ress	24	2	28	2	7	88
2025-03	Ress	26	7	28	3	13	88
2025-01	Hyp	26	1	28	3	24	88
2024-11	Hyp	28	6	28	3	27	88
2024-09	Ress	34	48	28	4	23	88
2024-07	Ress	46	88	28	4	53	88
2024-04	Hyp	36	12	28	3	69	88
2024-03	Rec	45	90	28	5	47	88
2024-02	Exp	45	87	28	5	50	88
2023-12	Exp	38	44	28	3	54	88
2023-11	Rec	38	39	28	3	56	88
2023-09	Rec	30	1	28	2	46	88
2023-06	Hyp	29	8	28	3	36	88
2023-04	Hyp	32	31	28	3	26	88
2023-03	Ress	31	27	28	3	28	88
2023-01	Ress	31	22	28	3	30	88
2022-10	Ress	31	33	28	5	18	88
2022-08	Hyp	47	92	28	10	51	88
2022-07	Exp	48	92	28	10	57	88
2022-05	Exp	36	41	28	6	42	88
2022-02	Rec	31	41	28	7	8	88
2021-12	Rec	28	25	28	4	5	91
2021-11	Exp	27	23	28	4	2	91
2021-09	Exp	24	5	28	3	1	91
2021-06	Rec	25	6	28	4	8	91
2021-04	Rec	33	4	28	4	59	91
2021-01	Exp	40	1	28	5	99	91
2020-11	Exp	40	1	28	4	99	91
2020-10	Rec	40	1	28	4	99	91
2020-08	Rec	39	0	28	3	99	91
2020-06	Exp	40	5	28	6	98	91
2020-04	Exp	40	7	28	6	91	91
2020-02	Rec	34	1	28	6	61	91
2019-12	Rec	39	1	28	8	89	95
2019-11	Exp	38	4	28	8	81	95
2019-09	Exp	37	7	28	8	72	95
2019-08	Rec	38	4	28	8	80	95
2019-06	Rec	40	2	28	8	91	95
2019-04	Hyp	40	2	28	8	92	95
2019-03	Ress	41	13	28	10	87	95
2019-01	Ress	42	21	28	10	86	95

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023