Rankings/Urban Honolulu, HI

Urban Honolulu, HI

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 46520Compare

Risk Rank: #276 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +6

32score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Urban Honolulu experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 2 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Urban Honolulu's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 276th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by migration and price momentum. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p88 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p41 (below average risk)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p32 (below average risk)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking +11% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+7.7%p57

Days on Market YoY

+10.7%p68

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+3.0%p92

Months in status17

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum41

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth32

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita9

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability2

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment20

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration88

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.9%	p41
Permit Growth	-11.7%	p32
Permits/1K Pop	1.44	p9
Affordability	0.19	p2
Employment	+1.0%	p20
Net AGI Migration	-$123K	p88

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-11.7%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+7.7%

Days on Market YoY+10.7%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	30	36	28	2	10	88
2025-10	Hyp	28	31	28	2	8	88
2025-08	Hyp	26	17	28	2	6	88
2025-05	Ress	24	2	28	2	7	88
2025-03	Ress	26	7	28	3	13	88
2025-01	Hyp	26	1	28	3	24	88
2024-11	Hyp	28	6	28	3	27	88
2024-09	Ress	34	48	28	4	23	88
2024-07	Ress	46	88	28	4	53	88
2024-04	Hyp	36	12	28	3	69	88
2024-03	Rec	45	90	28	5	47	88
2024-02	Exp	45	87	28	5	50	88
2023-12	Exp	38	44	28	3	54	88
2023-11	Rec	38	39	28	3	56	88
2023-09	Rec	30	1	28	2	46	88
2023-06	Hyp	29	8	28	3	36	88
2023-04	Hyp	32	31	28	3	26	88
2023-03	Ress	31	27	28	3	28	88
2023-01	Ress	31	22	28	3	30	88
2022-10	Ress	31	33	28	5	18	88
2022-08	Hyp	47	92	28	10	51	88
2022-07	Exp	48	92	28	10	57	88
2022-05	Exp	36	41	28	6	42	88
2022-02	Rec	31	41	28	7	8	88
2021-12	Rec	28	25	28	4	5	91
2021-11	Exp	27	23	28	4	2	91
2021-09	Exp	24	5	28	3	1	91
2021-06	Rec	25	6	28	4	8	91
2021-04	Rec	33	4	28	4	59	91
2021-01	Exp	40	1	28	5	99	91
2020-11	Exp	40	1	28	4	99	91
2020-10	Rec	40	1	28	4	99	91
2020-08	Rec	39	0	28	3	99	91
2020-06	Exp	40	5	28	6	98	91
2020-04	Exp	40	7	28	6	91	91
2020-02	Rec	34	1	28	6	61	91
2019-12	Rec	39	1	28	8	89	95
2019-11	Exp	38	4	28	8	81	95
2019-09	Exp	37	7	28	8	72	95
2019-08	Rec	38	4	28	8	80	95
2019-06	Rec	40	2	28	8	91	95
2019-04	Hyp	40	2	28	8	92	95
2019-03	Ress	41	13	28	10	87	95
2019-01	Ress	42	21	28	10	86	95

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022