Tyler, TX

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 46340Compare

Risk Rank: #231 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↑ +12

39score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Tyler's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 231st of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Tyler experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and affordability, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp71

YoY permit change

Affordabilityp44

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentump40

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+1.1%p50

Days on Market YoY

+1.7%p51

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.1%p66

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.1%p40

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+14.4%p71

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.40p26

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p44

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+1.2%p21

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$50Kp32

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+14.4%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 22%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Rec	35	36	60	44	14	32
2025-12	Hyp	30	25	26	44	27	32
2025-10	Hyp	30	33	17	47	27	25
2025-07	Hyp	30	21	17	47	42	25
2025-06	Ress	27	19	17	46	28	25
2025-04	Ress	28	24	17	46	24	25
2025-03	Hyp	29	23	17	49	31	25
2025-01	Rec	30	13	17	49	45	25
2024-11	Rec	28	12	17	50	33	25
2024-10	Hyp	31	15	17	50	52	25
2024-08	Hyp	33	19	17	53	53	25
2024-07	Ress	31	17	17	53	44	25
2024-05	Ress	32	8	17	51	63	25
2024-02	Hyp	34	24	17	58	51	25
2023-12	Hyp	33	12	17	55	60	25
2023-09	Hyp	30	25	17	56	25	25
2023-06	Hyp	34	54	17	58	23	25
2023-03	Ress	34	62	17	60	8	25
2023-01	Ress	35	67	17	61	8	25
2022-10	Ress	40	91	17	65	8	25
2022-07	Ress	39	83	17	58	20	25
2022-05	Hyp	41	88	17	60	23	25
2022-04	Exp	41	87	17	60	26	25
2022-02	Exp	44	81	17	60	52	25
2021-11	Exp	41	65	17	56	52	26
2021-08	Exp	37	44	17	51	53	26
2021-05	Exp	43	48	17	51	84	26
2021-04	Rec	42	48	17	51	78	26
2021-02	Rec	31	37	17	51	26	26
2020-11	Rec	36	46	17	54	20	46
2020-08	Rec	36	46	17	51	24	46
2020-05	Rec	35	53	17	50	14	46
2020-02	Rec	42	78	17	53	27	46
2020-01	Exp	39	70	17	53	18	46
2019-11	Exp	40	63	17	52	51	25
2019-09	Rec	33	18	17	49	61	25
2019-07	Rec	35	24	17	49	63	25
2019-06	Exp	34	39	17	50	44	25
2019-04	Exp	40	55	17	50	62	25
2019-03	Rec	35	55	17	51	31	25
2019-01	Rec	34	39	17	51	43	25

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023