Rankings/Tuscaloosa, AL

Tuscaloosa, AL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 46220Compare

Risk Rank: #123 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -8

51score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Tuscaloosa's housing market shows average risk, ranking 123rd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Recovery underway but inventory still elevated — watch for follow-through.

Tuscaloosa experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through late 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is elevated (+19% YoY) and days on market are up +6% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and price momentum, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp77

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump69

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp64

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+19% YoY) and days on market are up +6% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+18.8%p68

Days on Market YoY

+5.8%p60

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.8%p86

Months in status40

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+4.1%p69

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-13.8%p29

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.18p24

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.29p64

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.4%p43

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$31Kp77

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-13.8%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both sides are decelerating. Broad market slowdown — builders and buyers are both pulling back simultaneously.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 39.4%

5 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Tuscaloosa's counties diverge significantly — Tuscaloosa County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Pickens County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High19.0Limited data

3 of 4 counties scored

Tuscaloosa, AL shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Tuscaloosa County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Pickens County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Tuscaloosa CountyRisk Driver	88	High Risk	87.6%	100	50	100
Greene CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Hale County	38	Below Average	5.5%	50	0	50
Pickens CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	6.9%	0	100	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	42	31	34	62	35	65
2025-09	Hyp	40	41	34	62	14	65
2025-08	Exp	47	61	34	62	33	65
2025-07	Rec	47	79	34	62	16	65
2025-05	Rec	53	90	34	65	38	65
2025-04	Exp	60	85	34	65	82	65
2025-02	Exp	54	72	34	61	64	65
2024-12	Rec	59	92	34	65	72	65
2024-10	Rec	60	77	34	65	90	65
2024-09	Hyp	49	27	34	60	84	65
2024-08	Ress	42	34	34	60	36	65
2024-06	Ress	48	50	34	60	54	65
2024-04	Hyp	41	37	34	60	23	65
2024-02	Rec	42	30	34	58	39	65
2023-12	Hyp	44	58	34	62	15	65
2023-10	Hyp	44	62	34	62	12	65
2023-09	Exp	40	41	34	59	12	65
2023-08	Rec	40	37	34	59	15	65
2023-06	Rec	40	47	34	60	8	65
2023-04	Hyp	38	37	34	60	6	65
2023-02	Ress	39	35	34	62	10	65
2022-12	Ress	36	25	34	51	13	65
2022-11	Hyp	38	26	34	51	25	65
2022-10	Ress	35	27	34	50	9	65
2022-08	Ress	38	19	34	52	32	65
2022-07	Hyp	39	17	34	52	39	65
2022-05	Exp	42	16	34	53	59	65
2022-03	Exp	47	12	34	53	91	65
2022-02	Rec	47	12	34	53	89	65
2021-12	Rec	47	8	34	55	85	75
2021-09	Exp	49	11	34	59	88	75
2021-07	Exp	49	9	34	60	89	75
2021-06	Rec	48	11	34	61	80	75
2021-04	Rec	38	11	34	61	18	75
2021-03	Exp	50	14	34	64	85	75
2021-01	Exp	51	28	34	64	79	75
2020-10	Rec	58	55	34	69	88	74
2020-08	Rec	62	89	34	72	75	74
2020-06	Exp	63	93	34	74	76	74
2020-04	Exp	62	81	34	74	85	74
2020-03	Rec	44	39	34	70	20	74
2020-01	Rec	42	34	34	70	13	74
2019-10	Exp	36	24	34	67	7	58
2019-08	Exp	36	19	34	68	10	58
2019-06	Rec	38	36	34	70	1	58
2019-04	Rec	36	23	34	70	4	58
2019-03	Exp	38	23	34	71	13	58
2019-01	Exp	38	19	34	72	14	58

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023