Tulsa, OK

NeutralTier 1CBSA 46140Compare

Risk Rank: #104 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +13

53score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Tulsa's housing market shows average risk, ranking 104th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Tulsa experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through late 2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and affordability, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump76

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp59

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap56

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+2.9%p51

Days on Market YoY

+3.7%p56

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.2%p61

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.5%p76

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-2.8%p44

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.54p56

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.30p59

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.3%p55

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$55Kp29

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-2.8%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 23%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Tulsa's 7 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low6.2Limited data

7 of 7 counties scored

Tulsa, OK shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Rogers County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Wagoner County anchors the lower end (Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Rogers CountyRisk Driver	68	Elevated	9.5%	50	40	83
Creek County	61	Elevated	7.0%	83	60	50
Osage County<5%	58	Elevated	4.4%	67	100	33
Tulsa County	50	Average	65.6%	33	0	100
Wagoner CountyStabilizer	47	Average	8.3%	17	20	67
Pawnee County<5%	39	Below Average	1.5%	100	—	17
Okmulgee County<5%	24	Low Risk	3.6%	0	80	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	54	45	63	55	76	29
2025-12	Exp	46	39	78	58	10	29
2025-10	Exp	36	30	24	54	19	38
2025-09	Rec	38	35	24	54	24	38
2025-07	Rec	42	50	24	54	33	38
2025-06	Hyp	41	62	24	57	15	38
2025-04	Hyp	41	53	24	57	25	38
2025-01	Rec	48	75	24	59	43	38
2024-12	Hyp	43	57	24	56	33	38
2024-10	Hyp	42	50	24	56	33	38
2024-09	Ress	37	24	24	54	33	38
2024-07	Ress	39	27	24	54	42	38
2024-05	Hyp	40	32	24	54	44	38
2024-03	Hyp	38	35	24	55	24	38
2023-12	Hyp	40	45	24	58	22	38
2023-11	Exp	40	47	24	58	24	38
2023-10	Rec	39	45	24	58	17	38
2023-08	Rec	40	56	24	57	18	38
2023-07	Hyp	42	60	24	57	22	38
2023-05	Hyp	43	76	24	58	11	38
2023-03	Ress	43	76	24	58	11	38
2023-01	Ress	42	69	24	58	10	38
2022-10	Ress	46	72	24	54	37	38
2022-08	Hyp	46	63	24	53	50	38
2022-06	Exp	50	54	24	51	84	38
2022-04	Exp	51	53	24	51	90	38
2022-01	Rec	51	44	24	51	98	38
2021-11	Rec	48	42	24	47	90	33
2021-10	Exp	48	44	24	47	88	33
2021-08	Exp	48	39	24	47	93	33
2021-05	Exp	46	30	24	47	96	33
2021-04	Rec	46	30	24	47	94	33
2021-02	Rec	44	41	24	49	65	33
2020-12	Exp	41	36	24	46	59	33
2020-10	Exp	43	42	24	46	63	33
2020-09	Rec	42	41	24	46	61	33
2020-07	Rec	41	44	24	46	50	33
2020-04	Exp	40	60	24	46	28	33
2020-02	Exp	47	54	24	47	75	33
2019-11	Exp	43	31	24	47	68	36
2019-09	Rec	37	31	24	47	33	36
2019-07	Rec	40	34	24	47	49	36
2019-04	Rec	35	23	24	47	31	36
2019-03	Exp	42	46	24	48	46	36
2019-01	Exp	44	45	24	48	59	36

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023