Tulsa, OK

NeutralTier 1CBSA 46140Compare

Risk Rank: #179 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +3

46score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Tulsa's housing market shows average risk, ranking 179th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+11% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Tulsa experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through late 2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking -3% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and permits per capita, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp78

YoY permit change

Permits per Capitap59

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp58

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking -3% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+11.2%p60

Days on Market YoY

-2.9%p42

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.5%p73

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+2.4%p39

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+16.7%p78

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.93p59

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p58

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.4%p10

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$55Kp29

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+16.7%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 23%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Tulsa's 6 counties show moderate divergence — Wagoner County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Creek County anchors the lower end.

Moderate9.5Limited data

6 of 7 counties scored

Tulsa, OK shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Wagoner County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Creek County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Rogers County	75	Elevated	9.7%	40	100	80
Wagoner CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	8.5%	60	80	60
Tulsa County	65	Elevated	66.6%	80	20	100
Pawnee CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Okmulgee County<5%	40	Below Average	3.6%	100	60	0
Creek CountyStabilizer	35	Below Average	7.1%	20	40	40
Osage County<5%	10	Low Risk	4.5%	0	0	20

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	33	22	24	54	12	38
2025-09	Rec	38	35	24	54	24	38
2025-07	Rec	42	50	24	54	33	38
2025-06	Hyp	41	62	24	57	15	38
2025-04	Hyp	41	53	24	57	25	38
2025-01	Rec	48	75	24	59	43	38
2024-12	Hyp	43	57	24	56	33	38
2024-10	Hyp	42	50	24	56	33	38
2024-09	Ress	37	24	24	54	33	38
2024-07	Ress	39	27	24	54	42	38
2024-05	Hyp	40	32	24	54	44	38
2024-03	Hyp	38	35	24	55	24	38
2023-12	Hyp	40	45	24	58	22	38
2023-11	Exp	40	47	24	58	24	38
2023-10	Rec	39	45	24	58	17	38
2023-08	Rec	40	56	24	57	18	38
2023-07	Hyp	42	60	24	57	22	38
2023-05	Hyp	43	76	24	58	11	38
2023-03	Ress	43	76	24	58	11	38
2023-01	Ress	42	69	24	58	10	38
2022-10	Ress	46	72	24	54	37	38
2022-08	Hyp	46	63	24	53	50	38
2022-06	Exp	50	54	24	51	84	38
2022-04	Exp	51	53	24	51	90	38
2022-01	Rec	51	44	24	51	98	38
2021-11	Rec	48	42	24	47	90	33
2021-10	Exp	48	44	24	47	88	33
2021-08	Exp	48	39	24	47	93	33
2021-05	Exp	46	30	24	47	96	33
2021-04	Rec	46	30	24	47	94	33
2021-02	Rec	44	41	24	49	65	33
2020-12	Exp	41	36	24	46	59	33
2020-10	Exp	43	42	24	46	63	33
2020-09	Rec	42	41	24	46	61	33
2020-07	Rec	41	44	24	46	50	33
2020-04	Exp	40	60	24	46	28	33
2020-02	Exp	47	54	24	47	75	33
2019-11	Exp	43	31	24	47	68	36
2019-09	Rec	37	31	24	47	33	36
2019-07	Rec	40	34	24	47	49	36
2019-04	Rec	35	23	24	47	31	36
2019-03	Exp	42	46	24	48	46	36
2019-01	Exp	44	45	24	48	59	36

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023