Tucson, AZ

NeutralTier 1CBSA 46060Compare

Risk Rank: #167 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -3

47score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Tucson's housing market shows average risk, ranking 167th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Recovery underway but inventory still elevated — watch for follow-through.

Tucson experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is elevated (+15% YoY) and days on market are up +5% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and affordability, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp84

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp77

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap54

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+15% YoY) and days on market are up +5% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+15.1%p65

Days on Market YoY

+4.8%p58

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.9%p35

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.1%p21

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-11.3%p33

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.39p54

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.31p77

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.5%p84

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$364Kp11

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-11.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 18.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	52	53	45	78	65	12
2025-10	Hyp	49	56	45	77	46	12
2025-08	Hyp	43	35	45	77	30	12
2025-05	Ress	44	5	45	73	71	12
2025-03	Ress	54	35	45	78	94	12
2025-01	Hyp	55	37	45	78	99	12
2024-11	Hyp	50	12	45	77	96	12
2024-09	Ress	56	39	45	80	99	12
2024-07	Ress	57	48	45	80	97	12
2024-04	Ress	56	50	45	78	94	12
2024-03	Hyp	52	45	45	78	70	12
2024-02	Exp	50	33	45	78	71	12
2023-12	Exp	52	38	45	76	81	12
2023-09	Rec	46	32	45	74	52	12
2023-07	Rec	46	25	45	74	63	12
2023-05	Hyp	46	26	45	74	63	12
2023-03	Ress	54	52	45	76	81	12
2023-01	Ress	55	57	45	76	79	12
2022-10	Hyp	54	69	45	82	56	12
2022-08	Ress	58	82	45	82	65	12
2022-06	Ress	55	79	45	81	55	12
2022-05	Hyp	54	81	45	81	49	12
2022-03	Rec	53	85	45	81	37	12
2022-02	Hyp	52	85	45	81	33	12
2021-12	Exp	55	85	45	76	53	13
2021-10	Exp	54	90	45	76	45	13
2021-07	Exp	58	89	45	76	64	13
2021-04	Rec	61	88	45	73	89	13
2021-02	Rec	57	92	45	71	63	13
2020-11	Exp	53	84	45	69	52	11
2020-09	Exp	56	95	45	69	59	11
2020-08	Rec	54	95	45	69	48	11
2020-06	Rec	48	89	45	66	22	11
2020-05	Exp	48	89	45	66	21	11
2020-03	Exp	50	86	45	66	37	11
2020-02	Rec	50	86	45	66	35	11
2019-12	Rec	48	76	45	66	34	9
2019-09	Rec	46	70	45	65	26	9
2019-06	Rec	47	90	45	65	16	9
2019-05	Exp	48	89	45	65	20	9
2019-03	Exp	48	90	45	65	21	9
2019-01	Exp	48	84	45	65	26	9

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022