Tucson, AZ

NeutralTier 1CBSA 46060Compare

Risk Rank: #185 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):— +2

45score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Tucson's housing market shows average risk, ranking 185th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Tucson experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permit growth, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp73

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growthp67

YoY permit change

Permits per Capitap56

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

-0.6%p47

Days on Market YoY

-1.6%p44

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.5%p82

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.1%p12

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+11.4%p67

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.55p56

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.32p73

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.4%p51

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$233Kp11

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+11.4%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 18.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	46	42	37	76	55	11
2025-12	Rec	47	21	33	77	84	11
2025-10	Hyp	49	56	45	77	46	12
2025-08	Hyp	43	35	45	77	30	12
2025-05	Ress	44	5	45	73	71	12
2025-03	Ress	54	35	45	78	94	12
2025-01	Hyp	55	37	45	78	99	12
2024-11	Hyp	50	12	45	77	96	12
2024-09	Ress	56	39	45	80	99	12
2024-07	Ress	57	48	45	80	97	12
2024-04	Ress	56	50	45	78	94	12
2024-03	Hyp	52	45	45	78	70	12
2024-02	Exp	50	33	45	78	71	12
2023-12	Exp	52	38	45	76	81	12
2023-09	Rec	46	32	45	74	52	12
2023-07	Rec	46	25	45	74	63	12
2023-05	Hyp	46	26	45	74	63	12
2023-03	Ress	54	52	45	76	81	12
2023-01	Ress	55	57	45	76	79	12
2022-10	Hyp	54	69	45	82	56	12
2022-08	Ress	58	82	45	82	65	12
2022-06	Ress	55	79	45	81	55	12
2022-05	Hyp	54	81	45	81	49	12
2022-03	Rec	53	85	45	81	37	12
2022-02	Hyp	52	85	45	81	33	12
2021-12	Exp	55	85	45	76	53	13
2021-10	Exp	54	90	45	76	45	13
2021-07	Exp	58	89	45	76	64	13
2021-04	Rec	61	88	45	73	89	13
2021-02	Rec	57	92	45	71	63	13
2020-11	Exp	53	84	45	69	52	11
2020-09	Exp	56	95	45	69	59	11
2020-08	Rec	54	95	45	69	48	11
2020-06	Rec	48	89	45	66	22	11
2020-05	Exp	48	89	45	66	21	11
2020-03	Exp	50	86	45	66	37	11
2020-02	Rec	50	86	45	66	35	11
2019-12	Rec	48	76	45	66	34	9
2019-09	Rec	46	70	45	65	26	9
2019-06	Rec	47	90	45	65	16	9
2019-05	Exp	48	89	45	65	20	9
2019-03	Exp	48	90	45	65	21	9
2019-01	Exp	48	84	45	65	26	9

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023