Rankings/Trenton-Princeton, NJ

Trenton-Princeton, NJ

NeutralTier 1CBSA 45940Compare

Risk Rank: #137 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -13

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Trenton experienced a market correction from late 2024 through mid-2025.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recession for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Trenton's housing market shows average risk, ranking 137th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and migration. The market is in Recession phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p86 (elevated risk)

12-month HPI change

Migration

p84 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employment

p69 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +25% YoY with days on market up +13% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+24.7%p74

Days on Market YoY

+13.5%p73

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.4%p29

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum86

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth7

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita51

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability6

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment69

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration84

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+4.9%	p86
Permit Growth	-31.7%	p7
Permits/1K Pop	3.90	p51
Affordability	0.21	p6
Employment	-0.1%	p69
Net AGI Migration	-$73K	p84

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-31.7%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY+24.7%

Days on Market YoY+13.5%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	65	89	98	6	52	84
2025-09	Hyp	66	90	98	6	54	84
2025-07	Hyp	60	88	98	6	22	84
2025-04	Ress	64	94	98	5	41	84
2025-02	Ress	65	88	98	4	53	84
2024-11	Hyp	61	69	98	4	50	84
2024-10	Ress	60	70	98	4	44	84
2024-08	Ress	65	95	98	4	48	84
2024-05	Hyp	63	95	98	4	36	84
2024-04	Exp	61	95	98	4	22	84
2024-02	Rec	68	100	98	4	63	84
2023-12	Rec	67	99	98	5	55	84
2023-11	Exp	71	99	98	5	76	84
2023-09	Exp	64	94	98	4	45	84
2023-07	Rec	71	96	98	4	83	84
2023-05	Rec	66	92	98	4	56	84
2023-02	Rec	64	73	98	3	62	84
2023-01	Exp	61	67	98	3	51	84
2022-11	Exp	60	79	98	3	34	84
2022-08	Rec	60	70	98	2	43	84
2022-06	Rec	53	45	98	2	28	84
2022-05	Exp	56	46	98	2	43	84
2022-03	Exp	53	55	98	2	16	84
2022-01	Rec	55	47	98	2	38	84
2021-11	Rec	55	38	98	1	42	89
2021-10	Exp	56	39	98	1	49	89
2021-08	Exp	51	25	98	1	31	89
2021-05	Exp	57	22	98	1	71	89
2021-03	Rec	57	28	98	1	64	89
2021-01	Rec	54	27	98	1	49	89
2020-12	Exp	54	21	98	1	57	90
2020-10	Exp	56	26	98	1	59	90
2020-09	Rec	56	32	98	1	58	90
2020-07	Rec	56	33	98	1	57	90
2020-04	Exp	50	28	98	1	23	90
2020-02	Exp	58	65	98	1	32	90
2020-01	Rec	60	73	98	1	36	90
2019-11	Rec	62	65	98	1	54	94
2019-08	Rec	55	39	98	1	37	94
2019-05	Rec	58	19	98	1	73	94
2019-04	Exp	59	14	98	1	85	94
2019-02	Exp	45	2	98	1	14	94
2019-01	Exp	44	3	98	1	8	94

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022