Rankings/Trenton-Princeton, NJ

Trenton-Princeton, NJ

NeutralTier 1CBSA 45940Compare

Risk Rank: #173 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↓ -19

47score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Trenton's housing market shows average risk, ranking 173rd of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+14% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Trenton experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking -3% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and price momentum, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp94

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump73

12-month HPI change

Employmentp73

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking -3% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+14.5%p64

Days on Market YoY

-3.1%p41

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.9%p50

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+2.5%p73

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-35.8%p5

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.78p32

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.21p5

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.5%p73

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$160Kp94

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-35.8%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 29.5%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Ress	49	72	7	5	68	94
2025-11	Rec	65	89	98	6	52	84
2025-09	Hyp	66	90	98	6	54	84
2025-07	Hyp	60	88	98	6	22	84
2025-04	Ress	64	94	98	5	41	84
2025-02	Ress	65	88	98	4	53	84
2024-11	Hyp	61	69	98	4	50	84
2024-10	Ress	60	70	98	4	44	84
2024-08	Ress	65	95	98	4	48	84
2024-05	Hyp	63	95	98	4	36	84
2024-04	Exp	61	95	98	4	22	84
2024-02	Rec	68	100	98	4	63	84
2023-12	Rec	67	99	98	5	55	84
2023-11	Exp	71	99	98	5	76	84
2023-09	Exp	64	94	98	4	45	84
2023-07	Rec	71	96	98	4	83	84
2023-05	Rec	66	92	98	4	56	84
2023-02	Rec	64	73	98	3	62	84
2023-01	Exp	61	67	98	3	51	84
2022-11	Exp	60	79	98	3	34	84
2022-08	Rec	60	70	98	2	43	84
2022-06	Rec	53	45	98	2	28	84
2022-05	Exp	56	46	98	2	43	84
2022-03	Exp	53	55	98	2	16	84
2022-01	Rec	55	47	98	2	38	84
2021-11	Rec	55	38	98	1	42	89
2021-10	Exp	56	39	98	1	49	89
2021-08	Exp	51	25	98	1	31	89
2021-05	Exp	57	22	98	1	71	89
2021-03	Rec	57	28	98	1	64	89
2021-01	Rec	54	27	98	1	49	89
2020-12	Exp	54	21	98	1	57	90
2020-10	Exp	56	26	98	1	59	90
2020-09	Rec	56	32	98	1	58	90
2020-07	Rec	56	33	98	1	57	90
2020-04	Exp	50	28	98	1	23	90
2020-02	Exp	58	65	98	1	32	90
2020-01	Rec	60	73	98	1	36	90
2019-11	Rec	62	65	98	1	54	94
2019-08	Rec	55	39	98	1	37	94
2019-05	Rec	58	19	98	1	73	94
2019-04	Exp	59	14	98	1	85	94
2019-02	Exp	45	2	98	1	14	94
2019-01	Exp	44	3	98	1	8	94

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023