US Metro Real Estate Intelligence
Rankings/Traverse City, MI

Traverse City, MI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 45900Compare
Risk Rank: #153 of 274Month: 2026-05
49score
Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Traverse City's housing market shows average risk, ranking 153rd of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Traverse City has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Recovery.

Inventory is declining (-7% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession
1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permits per capita, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp84
Mortgage payment / income
Permits per Capitap76
Permits per 1,000 residents
Permit Growthp48
YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-7% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable
Active Listings YoY
-6.6%p41
Days on Market YoY
-2.6%p42
Months in status1
Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced
Rent vs. Price Growth
+3.3%p93
Months in status1
Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.
Factor Details
Lower riskHigher risk
Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk
Price MomentumBelow Avg
+0.9%p27

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral
-2.9%p48

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated
6.79p76

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk
0.34p84

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk
+0.8%p19

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg
+$32Kp38

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards
-3.7Normal
Rate Change (YoY)
-38 bpsNormal
Mortgage Risk Premium
+199 bpsElevated
Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio
0.90Elevated
Completion-Permit Divergence
-5.9 ppNormal
Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2
Local Signals

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated
Largest SectorGovernment 26.3%
QCEW 2024 annual averages
Internal Structure

Traverse City's 4 counties show moderate divergence — Benzie County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Grand Traverse County anchors the lower end.

Moderate12.5Limited data
4 of 4 counties scored

Traverse City, MI shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Benzie County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Grand Traverse County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)
CountyScore
Benzie CountyRisk Driver
66
Leelanau County
58
Kalkaska County
42
Grand Traverse CountyStabilizer
33
Score History
MonthScore
2025-1259
Data Vintages
Price (HPI)2026-Q1
Permits2026-05
Income2024
Employment2026-05
Migration2023