Rankings/Traverse City, MI

Traverse City, MI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 45900Compare

Risk Rank: #71 of 287Month: 2025-12

57score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 1 month

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Traverse City's housing market shows average risk, ranking 71st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and price momentum. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p85 (elevated risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentum

p79 (elevated risk)

12-month HPI change

Permits per Capita

p76 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-1.1%p48

Days on Market YoY

-8.9%p31

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.2%p88

Months in status8

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum79

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth66

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita76

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability85

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment7

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration30

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+4.1%	p79
Permit Growth	+6.5%	p66
Permits/1K Pop	6.78	p76
Affordability	0.33	p85
Employment	+1.7%	p7
Net AGI Migration	+$70K	p30

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY-1.1%

Days on Market YoY-8.9%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 6 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Traverse City's counties diverge significantly — Grand Traverse County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Kalkaska County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High25.6Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Traverse City, MI shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Grand Traverse County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Kalkaska County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Grand Traverse CountyRisk Driver	89	High Risk	25.0%	100	100	67
Leelanau County	55	Average	25.0%	33	33	100
Benzie County	33	Below Average	25.0%	67	0	33
Kalkaska CountyStabilizer	22	Low Risk	25.0%	0	67	0

Score History

First scoring month — history will build with each monthly refresh.

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022