Topeka, KS

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 45820Compare

Risk Rank: #252 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↓ -19

34score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Topeka's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 252nd of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Topeka experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through mid-2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +7% pace with homes taking -20% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and employment, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp65

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp54

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap27

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +7% pace with homes taking -20% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+7.1%p56

Days on Market YoY

-19.5%p17

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+4.2%p96

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.4%p15

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-15.8%p25

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.39p27

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.25p21

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.0%p54

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$11Kp65

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-15.8%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 45%

7 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Topeka's 5 counties show moderate divergence — Shawnee County carries the most risk (High Risk) while Osage County anchors the lower end.

Moderate12.8Limited data

5 of 5 counties scored

Topeka, KS shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Shawnee County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Osage County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Shawnee CountyRisk Driver	81	High Risk	76.6%	75	100	100
Jefferson County	69	Elevated	7.9%	50	75	50
Jackson County	50	Average	5.7%	100	25	75
Osage CountyStabilizer	38	Below Average	6.8%	0	50	25
Wabaunsee County<5%	12	Low Risk	3.0%	25	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Rec	56	21	95	21	99	65
2025-10	Rec	52	58	59	24	95	61
2025-09	Hyp	52	74	59	24	81	61
2025-07	Hyp	56	92	59	24	89	61
2025-04	Hyp	52	75	59	21	80	61
2025-02	Rec	48	73	59	23	59	61
2025-01	Hyp	43	63	59	23	37	61
2024-12	Exp	49	81	59	23	57	61
2024-11	Rec	52	93	59	23	62	61
2024-09	Rec	46	51	59	20	72	61
2024-08	Hyp	42	30	59	20	71	61
2024-07	Rec	43	17	59	20	87	61
2024-06	Ress	43	23	59	20	79	61
2024-04	Hyp	47	48	59	21	80	61
2024-02	Exp	56	95	59	22	86	61
2024-01	Rec	58	98	59	22	92	61
2023-11	Rec	50	67	59	31	70	61
2023-10	Ress	48	50	59	31	70	61
2023-08	Hyp	52	94	59	41	46	61
2023-06	Rec	46	77	59	36	29	61
2023-05	Hyp	50	70	59	36	61	61
2023-03	Hyp	34	17	59	25	31	61
2023-02	Ress	36	18	59	25	39	61
2022-12	Ress	46	39	59	32	73	61
2022-10	Exp	44	38	59	32	61	61
2022-08	Rec	46	27	59	31	81	61
2022-06	Rec	50	37	59	33	97	61
2022-05	Exp	49	35	59	33	92	61
2022-03	Exp	51	39	59	36	98	61
2022-02	Rec	49	40	59	36	85	61
2021-12	Rec	51	37	59	37	91	68
2021-10	Exp	52	40	59	37	93	68
2021-08	Exp	52	42	59	38	88	68
2021-05	Exp	52	49	59	39	84	68
2021-03	Rec	43	55	59	38	23	68
2021-01	Rec	41	48	59	38	18	68
2020-10	Rec	40	51	59	19	31	69
2020-07	Rec	43	78	59	19	19	69
2020-06	Exp	39	40	59	18	34	69
2020-04	Exp	32	17	59	18	17	69
2020-03	Rec	48	48	59	19	80	69
2020-01	Rec	54	82	59	19	79	69
2019-12	Exp	54	72	59	19	90	68
2019-10	Exp	46	47	59	19	69	68
2019-09	Rec	48	31	59	18	96	68
2019-07	Rec	48	41	59	18	91	68
2019-04	Exp	49	37	59	19	96	68
2019-02	Exp	43	6	59	17	93	68
2019-01	Exp	43	7	59	17	95	68

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023