Topeka, KS

NeutralTier 1CBSA 45820Compare

Risk Rank: #83 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +6

55score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Topeka's housing market shows average risk, ranking 83rd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Topeka experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through mid-2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +9% pace with homes taking +20% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp99

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp95

YoY permit change

Migrationp63

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +9% pace with homes taking +20% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+8.8%p58

Days on Market YoY

+20.0%p81

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+5.3%p98

Months in status22

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.2%p21

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+63.8%p95

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.73p32

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.24p21

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-1.7%p99

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$4Kp63

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+63.8%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 45%

7 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Topeka's 5 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low4.3Limited data

5 of 5 counties scored

Topeka, KS shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Osage County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Shawnee County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Jefferson County	56	Elevated	7.9%	50	25	75
Osage CountyRisk Driver	56	Elevated	6.8%	75	75	25
Wabaunsee County<5%	50	Average	3.0%	0	100	0
Jackson County	44	Below Average	5.7%	100	0	50
Shawnee CountyStabilizer	44	Below Average	76.6%	25	50	100

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	52	60	59	24	96	61
2025-09	Hyp	52	74	59	24	81	61
2025-07	Hyp	56	92	59	24	89	61
2025-04	Hyp	52	75	59	21	80	61
2025-02	Rec	48	73	59	23	59	61
2025-01	Hyp	43	63	59	23	37	61
2024-12	Exp	49	81	59	23	57	61
2024-11	Rec	52	93	59	23	62	61
2024-09	Rec	46	51	59	20	72	61
2024-08	Hyp	42	30	59	20	71	61
2024-07	Rec	43	17	59	20	87	61
2024-06	Ress	43	23	59	20	79	61
2024-04	Hyp	47	48	59	21	80	61
2024-02	Exp	56	95	59	22	86	61
2024-01	Rec	58	98	59	22	92	61
2023-11	Rec	50	67	59	31	70	61
2023-10	Ress	48	50	59	31	70	61
2023-08	Hyp	52	94	59	41	46	61
2023-06	Rec	46	77	59	36	29	61
2023-05	Hyp	50	70	59	36	61	61
2023-03	Hyp	34	17	59	25	31	61
2023-02	Ress	36	18	59	25	39	61
2022-12	Ress	46	39	59	32	73	61
2022-10	Exp	44	38	59	32	61	61
2022-08	Rec	46	27	59	31	81	61
2022-06	Rec	50	37	59	33	97	61
2022-05	Exp	49	35	59	33	92	61
2022-03	Exp	51	39	59	36	98	61
2022-02	Rec	49	40	59	36	85	61
2021-12	Rec	51	37	59	37	91	68
2021-10	Exp	52	40	59	37	93	68
2021-08	Exp	52	42	59	38	88	68
2021-05	Exp	52	49	59	39	84	68
2021-03	Rec	43	55	59	38	23	68
2021-01	Rec	41	48	59	38	18	68
2020-10	Rec	40	51	59	19	31	69
2020-07	Rec	43	78	59	19	19	69
2020-06	Exp	39	40	59	18	34	69
2020-04	Exp	32	17	59	18	17	69
2020-03	Rec	48	48	59	19	80	69
2020-01	Rec	54	82	59	19	79	69
2019-12	Exp	54	72	59	19	90	68
2019-10	Exp	46	47	59	19	69	68
2019-09	Rec	48	31	59	18	96	68
2019-07	Rec	48	41	59	18	91	68
2019-04	Exp	49	37	59	19	96	68
2019-02	Exp	43	6	59	17	93	68
2019-01	Exp	43	7	59	17	95	68

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022