Toledo, OH

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 45780Compare

Risk Rank: #229 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -9

40score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Toledo's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 229th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains.

Toledo experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025.

Inventory has surged +36% YoY with days on market up +22% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Recession

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and price momentum, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp87

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump68

12-month HPI change

Employmentp64

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +36% YoY with days on market up +22% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY

+35.5%p83

Days on Market YoY

+21.7%p82

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.4%p71

Months in status20

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+4.0%p68

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-38.2%p3

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

0.91p3

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.23p14

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.0%p64

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$66Kp87

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-38.2%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both supply and demand are in contraction. The market is in full retreat — builders have stopped and buyers have pulled back.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 21.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Toledo's counties diverge significantly — Wood County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Fulton County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High25.8Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Toledo, OH shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Wood County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Fulton County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Wood CountyRisk Driver	100	High Risk	21.9%	100	100	100
Lucas County	50	Average	71.1%	50	50	50
Fulton CountyStabilizer	0	Low Risk	7.0%	0	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Ress	40	73	8	14	56	79
2025-09	Rec	35	76	8	14	21	79
2025-07	Hyp	34	82	8	14	8	79
2025-06	Rec	38	80	8	14	36	79
2025-05	Hyp	39	76	8	14	44	79
2025-03	Hyp	39	71	8	13	53	79
2025-02	Rec	44	81	8	13	70	79
2024-12	Exp	49	90	8	13	91	79
2024-10	Exp	36	88	8	13	19	79
2024-08	Hyp	45	72	8	12	89	79
2024-07	Exp	46	65	8	12	98	79
2024-06	Rec	48	85	8	13	90	79
2024-04	Rec	47	89	8	13	83	79
2024-03	Exp	43	64	8	12	83	79
2024-01	Exp	43	68	8	12	82	79
2023-10	Exp	48	81	8	13	99	79
2023-08	Rec	41	79	8	13	55	79
2023-06	Rec	36	54	8	11	55	79
2023-04	Ress	39	58	8	11	65	79
2023-02	Ress	37	50	8	12	62	79
2023-01	Hyp	35	49	8	12	49	79
2022-12	Exp	35	27	8	10	74	79
2022-10	Exp	32	20	8	10	63	79
2022-07	Exp	32	20	8	11	62	79
2022-06	Hyp	33	12	8	10	79	79
2022-05	Exp	31	10	8	10	68	79
2022-03	Rec	34	6	8	11	89	79
2022-01	Rec	36	9	8	11	96	79
2021-10	Exp	37	14	8	9	96	85
2021-08	Exp	37	19	8	11	89	85
2021-05	Exp	26	34	8	11	8	85
2021-03	Rec	38	43	8	11	72	85
2021-01	Rec	38	44	8	11	68	85
2020-12	Exp	39	56	8	12	65	84
2020-10	Exp	39	47	8	12	73	84
2020-09	Rec	38	46	8	12	68	84
2020-07	Rec	40	47	8	12	78	84
2020-04	Exp	40	27	8	12	95	84
2020-02	Exp	36	30	8	12	72	84
2019-11	Exp	40	52	8	12	72	84
2019-09	Rec	40	57	8	12	71	84
2019-07	Rec	38	51	8	12	62	84
2019-06	Exp	38	58	8	12	54	84
2019-04	Exp	42	60	8	12	77	84
2019-03	Rec	45	64	8	12	90	84
2019-01	Rec	45	63	8	12	93	84

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023