Toledo, OH

NeutralTier 1CBSA 45780Compare

Risk Rank: #116 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↑ +13

52score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Toledo's housing market shows average risk, ranking 116th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Significant oversupply — conditions increasingly favor buyers over sellers.

Toledo experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory has surged +17% YoY with days on market up +12% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and migration, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp96

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migrationp87

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp62

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +17% YoY with days on market up +12% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY

+17.3%p67

Days on Market YoY

+12.5%p71

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.6%p90

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+1.8%p54

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+4.4%p62

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

0.91p3

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.24p13

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-2.0%p96

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$66Kp87

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+4.4%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 21.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Toledo's 3 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low0.0Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Toledo, OH shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Fulton County contributes the most structural risk (Average, driven by permit growth), while Lucas County anchors the lower end (Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Fulton CountyRisk Driver	50	Average	7.0%	0	100	0
Lucas CountyStabilizer	50	Average	71.1%	100	50	50
Wood County	50	Average	21.9%	50	0	100

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Ress	40	68	3	14	64	87
2025-10	Ress	38	71	8	14	43	79
2025-09	Rec	35	76	8	14	21	79
2025-07	Hyp	34	82	8	14	8	79
2025-06	Rec	38	80	8	14	36	79
2025-05	Hyp	39	76	8	14	44	79
2025-03	Hyp	39	71	8	13	53	79
2025-02	Rec	44	81	8	13	70	79
2024-12	Exp	49	90	8	13	91	79
2024-10	Exp	36	88	8	13	19	79
2024-08	Hyp	45	72	8	12	89	79
2024-07	Exp	46	65	8	12	98	79
2024-06	Rec	48	85	8	13	90	79
2024-04	Rec	47	89	8	13	83	79
2024-03	Exp	43	64	8	12	83	79
2024-01	Exp	43	68	8	12	82	79
2023-10	Exp	48	81	8	13	99	79
2023-08	Rec	41	79	8	13	55	79
2023-06	Rec	36	54	8	11	55	79
2023-04	Ress	39	58	8	11	65	79
2023-02	Ress	37	50	8	12	62	79
2023-01	Hyp	35	49	8	12	49	79
2022-12	Exp	35	27	8	10	74	79
2022-10	Exp	32	20	8	10	63	79
2022-07	Exp	32	20	8	11	62	79
2022-06	Hyp	33	12	8	10	79	79
2022-05	Exp	31	10	8	10	68	79
2022-03	Rec	34	6	8	11	89	79
2022-01	Rec	36	9	8	11	96	79
2021-10	Exp	37	14	8	9	96	85
2021-08	Exp	37	19	8	11	89	85
2021-05	Exp	26	34	8	11	8	85
2021-03	Rec	38	43	8	11	72	85
2021-01	Rec	38	44	8	11	68	85
2020-12	Exp	39	56	8	12	65	84
2020-10	Exp	39	47	8	12	73	84
2020-09	Rec	38	46	8	12	68	84
2020-07	Rec	40	47	8	12	78	84
2020-04	Exp	40	27	8	12	95	84
2020-02	Exp	36	30	8	12	72	84
2019-11	Exp	40	52	8	12	72	84
2019-09	Rec	40	57	8	12	71	84
2019-07	Rec	38	51	8	12	62	84
2019-06	Exp	38	58	8	12	54	84
2019-04	Exp	42	60	8	12	77	84
2019-03	Rec	45	64	8	12	90	84
2019-01	Rec	45	63	8	12	93	84

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023