Rankings/Terre Haute, IN

Terre Haute, IN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 45460Compare

Risk Rank: #76 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -3

56score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Terre Haute experienced a market correction from early 2024 through mid-2024. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 1 month·Previously: Expansion

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Terre Haute's housing market shows average risk, ranking 76th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permit growth and price momentum. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permit Growth

p98 (highest risk decile)

YoY permit change

Price Momentum

p81 (elevated risk)

12-month HPI change

Affordability

p60 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+19% YoY) and days on market are up -8% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+19.1%p69

Days on Market YoY

-7.7%p33

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+3.1%p93

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum81

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth98

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita18

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability60

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment24

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration57

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+4.3%	p81
Permit Growth	+91.5%	p98
Permits/1K Pop	1.86	p18
Affordability	0.28	p60
Employment	+0.9%	p24
Net AGI Migration	+$1K	p57

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+91.5%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Heavy building into softening demand. The construction pipeline may outrun absorption — watch for inventory acceleration in coming months.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY+19.1%

Days on Market YoY-7.7%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Terre Haute's counties diverge significantly — Clay County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Sullivan County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High34.0Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Terre Haute, IN shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Clay County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Sullivan County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Clay CountyRisk Driver	89	High Risk	25.0%	100	100	67
Vigo County	78	High Risk	25.0%	67	67	100
Vermillion County	22	Low Risk	25.0%	33	33	0
Sullivan CountyStabilizer	11	Low Risk	25.0%	0	0	33

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	56	90	84	60	42	56
2025-09	Exp	57	96	84	60	41	56
2025-06	Hyp	53	89	84	52	31	56
2025-05	Exp	58	89	84	52	65	56
2025-03	Exp	60	98	84	57	63	56
2025-02	Hyp	62	99	84	57	71	56
2025-01	Rec	62	98	84	57	74	56
2024-11	Rec	53	92	84	48	34	56
2024-10	Hyp	52	84	84	48	36	56
2024-08	Hyp	55	82	84	46	58	56
2024-06	Ress	57	79	84	44	74	56
2024-04	Ress	54	78	84	44	60	56
2024-01	Exp	57	96	84	40	63	56
2023-11	Exp	62	78	84	63	89	56
2023-08	Rec	56	42	84	60	90	56
2023-06	Rec	56	48	84	59	81	56
2023-04	Hyp	59	56	84	59	94	56
2023-02	Ress	47	15	84	48	76	56
2022-12	Ress	59	75	84	39	96	56
2022-10	Exp	55	67	84	40	78	56
2022-08	Exp	50	64	84	36	57	56
2022-05	Exp	52	44	84	36	88	56
2022-02	Exp	47	18	84	33	84	56
2022-01	Rec	45	14	84	33	78	56
2021-11	Rec	50	18	84	39	90	66
2021-10	Exp	52	18	84	39	98	66
2021-08	Exp	49	16	84	37	88	66
2021-05	Rec	50	20	84	39	85	66
2021-03	Rec	51	50	84	42	57	66
2021-02	Exp	52	53	84	42	65	66
2020-12	Exp	50	58	84	32	62	58
2020-11	Rec	46	41	84	32	59	58
2020-09	Rec	41	19	84	30	49	58
2020-06	Rec	50	74	84	30	48	58
2020-03	Exp	54	53	84	30	94	58
2020-01	Exp	50	33	84	30	92	58
2019-12	Rec	61	88	84	35	91	61
2019-10	Rec	61	90	84	35	91	61
2019-09	Exp	49	21	84	28	95	61
2019-07	Exp	47	6	84	28	96	61
2019-06	Rec	48	9	84	28	97	61
2019-04	Rec	50	21	84	28	97	61
2019-03	Exp	52	33	84	32	93	61
2019-01	Exp	52	31	84	32	97	61

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022