Rankings/Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 45300Compare

Risk Rank: #168 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +4

47score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Tampa experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 2 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Tampa's housing market shows average risk, ranking 168th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+13% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and permits per capita. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p99 (highest risk decile)

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capita

p77 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growth

p65 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +11% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+13.3%p63

Days on Market YoY

+11.1%p69

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.1%p47

Months in status20

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum20

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth65

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita77

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability99

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment22

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration1

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+0.4%	p20
Permit Growth	+6.4%	p65
Permits/1K Pop	6.96	p77
Affordability	0.42	p99
Employment	+0.9%	p22
Net AGI Migration	+$3M	p1

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+6.4%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+13.3%

Days on Market YoY+11.1%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Tampa's counties diverge significantly — Pinellas County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Pasco County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High24.3Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Tampa, FL shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Pinellas County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Pasco County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Pinellas CountyRisk Driver	89	High Risk	25.0%	100	67	100
Hillsborough County	45	Below Average	25.0%	67	0	67
Hernando County	44	Below Average	25.0%	33	100	0
Pasco CountyStabilizer	22	Low Risk	25.0%	0	33	33

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	36	12	19	99	17	1
2025-10	Hyp	34	9	19	99	6	1
2025-09	Rec	39	7	19	99	37	1
2025-08	Hyp	41	5	19	99	51	1
2025-06	Ress	40	8	19	100	44	1
2025-04	Ress	42	12	19	100	51	1
2025-03	Hyp	40	6	19	99	41	1
2025-01	Rec	42	8	19	99	57	1
2024-12	Hyp	43	14	19	100	54	1
2024-10	Hyp	48	10	19	100	88	1
2024-07	Ress	44	18	19	100	54	1
2024-05	Ress	43	31	19	100	38	1
2024-02	Ress	46	51	19	99	33	1
2024-01	Hyp	45	50	19	99	32	1
2023-12	Exp	48	63	19	100	35	1
2023-10	Exp	45	51	19	100	27	1
2023-09	Rec	45	51	19	100	29	1
2023-07	Rec	42	44	19	100	16	1
2023-06	Hyp	42	37	19	100	25	1
2023-04	Hyp	44	55	19	100	20	1
2023-02	Ress	47	74	19	100	15	1
2022-12	Ress	50	91	19	100	15	1
2022-09	Ress	51	98	19	100	14	1
2022-06	Ress	50	97	19	99	10	1
2022-04	Exp	49	97	19	99	7	1
2022-02	Exp	52	96	19	99	23	1
2022-01	Rec	52	96	19	99	24	1
2021-11	Rec	50	93	19	99	13	2
2021-10	Exp	50	93	19	99	15	2
2021-08	Exp	52	91	19	100	25	2
2021-05	Exp	57	90	19	100	59	2
2021-04	Rec	55	91	19	100	43	2
2021-02	Rec	51	91	19	100	20	2
2020-12	Exp	50	87	19	100	20	2
2020-10	Exp	50	89	19	100	20	2
2020-09	Rec	52	93	19	100	27	2
2020-07	Rec	50	92	19	100	15	2
2020-05	Exp	50	92	19	100	16	2
2020-03	Exp	51	92	19	100	20	2
2020-02	Rec	50	92	19	100	16	2
2019-12	Rec	49	90	19	100	14	1
2019-09	Rec	51	92	19	100	22	1
2019-06	Rec	48	82	19	100	15	1
2019-03	Hyp	49	87	19	99	17	1
2019-01	Hyp	49	85	19	99	22	1

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022