Rankings/Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 45300Compare

Risk Rank: #185 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +3

46score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Tampa's housing market shows average risk, ranking 185th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+13% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Tampa experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +11% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permits per capita, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp100

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap77

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp65

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +11% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+13.3%p63

Days on Market YoY

+11.1%p69

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.2%p46

Months in status20

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.5%p13

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+6.4%p65

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

6.96p77

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.42p100

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.9%p22

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$3Mp1

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+6.4%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorHealth Care 14.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Tampa's 4 counties show moderate divergence — Pinellas County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Pasco County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.0Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Tampa, FL shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Pinellas County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Pasco County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Pinellas CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	29.1%	100	67	100
Hernando County	58	Elevated	6.3%	33	100	0
Hillsborough County	42	Below Average	46.1%	67	0	67
Pasco CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	18.5%	0	33	33

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	36	12	19	99	17	1
2025-10	Hyp	34	9	19	99	6	1
2025-09	Rec	39	7	19	99	37	1
2025-08	Hyp	41	5	19	99	51	1
2025-06	Ress	40	8	19	100	44	1
2025-04	Ress	42	12	19	100	51	1
2025-03	Hyp	40	6	19	99	41	1
2025-01	Rec	42	8	19	99	57	1
2024-12	Hyp	43	14	19	100	54	1
2024-10	Hyp	48	10	19	100	88	1
2024-07	Ress	44	18	19	100	54	1
2024-05	Ress	43	31	19	100	38	1
2024-02	Ress	46	51	19	99	33	1
2024-01	Hyp	45	50	19	99	32	1
2023-12	Exp	48	63	19	100	35	1
2023-10	Exp	45	51	19	100	27	1
2023-09	Rec	45	51	19	100	29	1
2023-07	Rec	42	44	19	100	16	1
2023-06	Hyp	42	37	19	100	25	1
2023-04	Hyp	44	55	19	100	20	1
2023-02	Ress	47	74	19	100	15	1
2022-12	Ress	50	91	19	100	15	1
2022-09	Ress	51	98	19	100	14	1
2022-06	Ress	50	97	19	99	10	1
2022-04	Exp	49	97	19	99	7	1
2022-02	Exp	52	96	19	99	23	1
2022-01	Rec	52	96	19	99	24	1
2021-11	Rec	50	93	19	99	13	2
2021-10	Exp	50	93	19	99	15	2
2021-08	Exp	52	91	19	100	25	2
2021-05	Exp	57	90	19	100	59	2
2021-04	Rec	55	91	19	100	43	2
2021-02	Rec	51	91	19	100	20	2
2020-12	Exp	50	87	19	100	20	2
2020-10	Exp	50	89	19	100	20	2
2020-09	Rec	52	93	19	100	27	2
2020-07	Rec	50	92	19	100	15	2
2020-05	Exp	50	92	19	100	16	2
2020-03	Exp	51	92	19	100	20	2
2020-02	Rec	50	92	19	100	16	2
2019-12	Rec	49	90	19	100	14	1
2019-09	Rec	51	92	19	100	22	1
2019-06	Rec	48	82	19	100	15	1
2019-03	Hyp	49	87	19	99	17	1
2019-01	Hyp	49	85	19	99	22	1

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022