Rankings/Tallahassee, FL

Tallahassee, FL

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 45220Compare

Risk Rank: #9 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +19

68score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Tallahassee's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 9th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Tallahassee experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+17% YoY) and days on market are up +8% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permits per capita, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp92

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap77

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp75

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+17% YoY) and days on market are up +8% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY

+16.9%p66

Days on Market YoY

+8.2%p64

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.9%p78

Months in status26

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.8%p15

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+14.2%p75

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

7.05p77

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.30p71

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.2%p75

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$101Kp92

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+14.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 44.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Tallahassee's 4 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low0.0Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Tallahassee, FL shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Wakulla County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Leon County anchors the lower end (Elevated).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Gadsden County	58	Elevated	11.2%	67	100	67
Leon CountyStabilizer	58	Elevated	76.0%	33	33	100
Wakulla CountyRisk Driver	58	Elevated	9.0%	100	0	33
Jefferson County<5%	25	Low Risk	3.9%	0	67	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	66	45	29	76	93	82
2025-10	Ress	62	40	29	76	79	82
2025-08	Ress	56	38	29	76	43	82
2025-07	Rec	55	38	29	76	38	82
2025-05	Exp	44	7	29	70	8	82
2025-03	Exp	46	14	29	73	8	82
2024-12	Exp	49	24	29	76	13	82
2024-11	Rec	49	30	29	76	7	82
2024-09	Rec	46	20	29	76	4	82
2024-07	Hyp	45	7	29	76	6	82
2024-06	Ress	46	20	29	76	4	82
2024-04	Ress	52	43	29	76	12	82
2024-03	Hyp	53	51	29	77	12	82
2024-01	Hyp	52	39	29	77	16	82
2023-12	Exp	49	37	29	68	8	82
2023-10	Exp	58	63	29	68	40	82
2023-07	Rec	66	91	29	73	52	82
2023-05	Rec	63	61	29	69	70	82
2023-04	Exp	56	53	29	69	33	82
2023-02	Exp	57	79	29	71	15	82
2022-11	Exp	57	49	29	76	37	82
2022-10	Rec	55	51	29	76	25	82
2022-08	Rec	56	52	29	76	26	82
2022-07	Exp	54	51	29	76	19	82
2022-05	Exp	59	63	29	77	33	82
2022-04	Rec	59	63	29	77	33	82
2022-02	Rec	62	52	29	78	62	82
2021-11	Exp	54	49	28	58	36	83
2021-09	Exp	53	50	28	59	32	83
2021-06	Exp	57	38	28	58	66	83
2021-03	Rec	50	39	28	58	24	83
2021-01	Rec	57	73	28	58	31	83
2020-12	Exp	58	61	28	68	36	86
2020-10	Exp	50	29	28	68	19	86
2020-07	Exp	56	60	28	69	26	86
2020-05	Rec	61	95	28	70	18	86
2020-03	Rec	60	35	28	65	81	86
2020-02	Ress	57	19	28	65	74	86
2020-01	Hyp	54	9	28	65	65	86
2019-12	Rec	64	79	28	69	61	77
2019-10	Rec	63	97	28	69	39	77
2019-08	Hyp	59	70	28	68	46	77
2019-06	Ress	48	14	28	66	39	77
2019-04	Ress	49	26	28	66	30	77
2019-03	Hyp	58	86	28	68	24	77
2019-02	Exp	61	87	28	68	38	77
2019-01	Exp	60	86	28	68	36	77

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023