Rankings/Tallahassee, FL

Tallahassee, FL

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 45220Compare

Risk Rank: #34 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↑ +17

61score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Tallahassee's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 34th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Tallahassee experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is declining (-5% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permits per capita, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp92

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap73

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp71

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-5% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-5.3%p42

Days on Market YoY

+10.9%p69

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.8%p85

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.5%p16

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

+1.7%p56

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

6.44p73

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.31p71

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

-0.1%p56

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$101Kp92

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+1.7%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 44.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Tallahassee's 4 counties show moderate divergence — Leon County carries the most risk (High Risk) while Gadsden County anchors the lower end.

Moderate17.1Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Tallahassee, FL shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Leon County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Gadsden County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Leon CountyRisk Driver	84	High Risk	76.0%	67	100	100
Gadsden CountyStabilizer	42	Below Average	11.2%	33	67	67
Wakulla County	42	Below Average	9.0%	0	33	33
Jefferson County<5%	33	Below Average	3.9%	100	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Hyp	68	15	75	71	75	92
2025-11	Rec	66	45	29	76	93	82
2025-10	Ress	62	40	29	76	79	82
2025-08	Ress	56	38	29	76	43	82
2025-07	Rec	55	38	29	76	38	82
2025-05	Exp	44	7	29	70	8	82
2025-03	Exp	46	14	29	73	8	82
2024-12	Exp	49	24	29	76	13	82
2024-11	Rec	49	30	29	76	7	82
2024-09	Rec	46	20	29	76	4	82
2024-07	Hyp	45	7	29	76	6	82
2024-06	Ress	46	20	29	76	4	82
2024-04	Ress	52	43	29	76	12	82
2024-03	Hyp	53	51	29	77	12	82
2024-01	Hyp	52	39	29	77	16	82
2023-12	Exp	49	37	29	68	8	82
2023-10	Exp	58	63	29	68	40	82
2023-07	Rec	66	91	29	73	52	82
2023-05	Rec	63	61	29	69	70	82
2023-04	Exp	56	53	29	69	33	82
2023-02	Exp	57	79	29	71	15	82
2022-11	Exp	57	49	29	76	37	82
2022-10	Rec	55	51	29	76	25	82
2022-08	Rec	56	52	29	76	26	82
2022-07	Exp	54	51	29	76	19	82
2022-05	Exp	59	63	29	77	33	82
2022-04	Rec	59	63	29	77	33	82
2022-02	Rec	62	52	29	78	62	82
2021-11	Exp	54	49	28	58	36	83
2021-09	Exp	53	50	28	59	32	83
2021-06	Exp	57	38	28	58	66	83
2021-03	Rec	50	39	28	58	24	83
2021-01	Rec	57	73	28	58	31	83
2020-12	Exp	58	61	28	68	36	86
2020-10	Exp	50	29	28	68	19	86
2020-07	Exp	56	60	28	69	26	86
2020-05	Rec	61	95	28	70	18	86
2020-03	Rec	60	35	28	65	81	86
2020-02	Ress	57	19	28	65	74	86
2020-01	Hyp	54	9	28	65	65	86
2019-12	Rec	64	79	28	69	61	77
2019-10	Rec	63	97	28	69	39	77
2019-08	Hyp	59	70	28	68	46	77
2019-06	Ress	48	14	28	66	39	77
2019-04	Ress	49	26	28	66	30	77
2019-03	Hyp	58	86	28	68	24	77
2019-02	Exp	61	87	28	68	38	77
2019-01	Exp	60	86	28	68	36	77

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023