Rankings/Syracuse, NY

Syracuse, NY

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 45060Compare

Risk Rank: #6 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +18

72score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Syracuse's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 6th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Syracuse experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+16% YoY) and days on market are up +9% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and migration, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp100

YoY permit change

Migrationp91

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp81

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+16% YoY) and days on market are up +9% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+16.4%p66

Days on Market YoY

+8.7%p65

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.2%p61

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.7%p80

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+211.1%p100

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.02p49

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.28p33

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.5%p81

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$100Kp91

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+211.1%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Heavy building into softening demand. The construction pipeline may outrun absorption — watch for inventory acceleration in coming months.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 24.3%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Syracuse's counties diverge significantly — Onondaga County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Oswego County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High33.5Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Syracuse, NY shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Onondaga County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Oswego County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Onondaga CountyRisk Driver	88	High Risk	71.8%	50	100	100
Madison County	62	Elevated	10.3%	100	50	50
Oswego CountyStabilizer	0	Low Risk	18.0%	0	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	69	65	100	32	79	91
2026-05	Hyp	67	75	99	32	62	91
2025-12	Rec	68	99	99	33	45	91
2025-10	Rec	54	95	88	32	11	88
2025-07	Ress	54	98	88	32	9	88
2025-06	Hyp	54	96	88	29	12	88
2025-05	Exp	54	95	88	29	16	88
2025-03	Exp	50	77	88	23	14	88
2025-01	Rec	53	94	88	23	15	88
2024-11	Rec	54	100	88	25	16	88
2024-10	Hyp	57	98	88	25	31	88
2024-08	Exp	58	95	88	23	42	88
2024-06	Exp	56	97	88	22	33	88
2024-05	Rec	58	97	88	22	41	88
2024-03	Rec	55	71	88	17	56	88
2024-02	Exp	57	78	88	17	62	88
2023-12	Exp	63	92	88	17	82	88
2023-09	Exp	64	98	88	17	83	88
2023-07	Rec	61	95	88	17	69	88
2023-05	Rec	62	92	88	16	80	88
2023-04	Exp	61	93	88	16	72	88
2023-02	Exp	61	78	88	15	89	88
2022-11	Exp	50	45	88	18	55	88
2022-10	Rec	52	41	88	18	65	88
2022-08	Rec	50	40	88	18	56	88
2022-07	Exp	51	42	88	18	63	88
2022-05	Exp	51	24	88	16	83	88
2022-02	Exp	49	23	88	17	68	88
2022-01	Rec	47	21	88	17	61	88
2021-11	Rec	50	31	88	16	74	85
2021-09	Exp	52	25	88	15	88	85
2021-07	Exp	50	29	88	15	73	85
2021-04	Exp	45	45	88	14	30	85
2021-03	Rec	60	78	88	15	83	85
2021-01	Rec	59	74	88	15	82	85
2020-12	Exp	60	85	88	14	79	85
2020-10	Exp	59	76	88	14	81	85
2020-08	Rec	60	85	88	13	83	85
2020-06	Rec	52	29	88	12	88	85
2020-03	Rec	54	47	88	12	84	85
2020-02	Exp	58	67	88	12	90	85
2019-12	Exp	62	83	88	12	94	87
2019-09	Exp	56	48	88	12	89	87
2019-06	Exp	52	46	88	12	69	87
2019-03	Rec	45	6	88	11	70	87
2019-01	Rec	46	5	88	11	76	87

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023