Rankings/Syracuse, NY

Syracuse, NY

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 45060Compare

Risk Rank: #9 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +15

68score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Syracuse's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 9th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 5 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers. Valuations are also showing some stretch.

Syracuse experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is declining (-9% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Home prices are outpacing rents (-4.0% rent-price ratio change), indicating some valuation compression.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

5 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Valuation Lag — Liquidity is improving but rent-price ratios remain compressed.

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump99

12-month HPI change

Permit Growthp99

YoY permit change

Migrationp91

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-9% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-8.7%p39

Days on Market YoY

-13.3%p25

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-4.0%p16

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+8.3%p99

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+136.5%p99

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.30p41

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.26p33

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.4%p45

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$100Kp91

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+136.5%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 24.3%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Syracuse's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Onondaga County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Oswego County anchors the lower end.

Moderate16.6Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Syracuse, NY shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Onondaga County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Oswego County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Onondaga CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	71.8%	100	100	100
Madison County	38	Below Average	10.3%	0	0	50
Oswego CountyStabilizer	38	Below Average	18.0%	50	50	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	57	96	88	32	30	88
2025-09	Rec	54	96	88	32	10	88
2025-07	Ress	54	98	88	32	9	88
2025-06	Hyp	54	96	88	29	12	88
2025-05	Exp	54	95	88	29	16	88
2025-03	Exp	50	77	88	23	14	88
2025-01	Rec	53	94	88	23	15	88
2024-11	Rec	54	100	88	25	16	88
2024-10	Hyp	57	98	88	25	31	88
2024-08	Exp	58	95	88	23	42	88
2024-06	Exp	56	97	88	22	33	88
2024-05	Rec	58	97	88	22	41	88
2024-03	Rec	55	71	88	17	56	88
2024-02	Exp	57	78	88	17	62	88
2023-12	Exp	63	92	88	17	82	88
2023-09	Exp	64	98	88	17	83	88
2023-07	Rec	61	95	88	17	69	88
2023-05	Rec	62	92	88	16	80	88
2023-04	Exp	61	93	88	16	72	88
2023-02	Exp	61	78	88	15	89	88
2022-11	Exp	50	45	88	18	55	88
2022-10	Rec	52	41	88	18	65	88
2022-08	Rec	50	40	88	18	56	88
2022-07	Exp	51	42	88	18	63	88
2022-05	Exp	51	24	88	16	83	88
2022-02	Exp	49	23	88	17	68	88
2022-01	Rec	47	21	88	17	61	88
2021-11	Rec	50	31	88	16	74	85
2021-09	Exp	52	25	88	15	88	85
2021-07	Exp	50	29	88	15	73	85
2021-04	Exp	45	45	88	14	30	85
2021-03	Rec	60	78	88	15	83	85
2021-01	Rec	59	74	88	15	82	85
2020-12	Exp	60	85	88	14	79	85
2020-10	Exp	59	76	88	14	81	85
2020-08	Rec	60	85	88	13	83	85
2020-06	Rec	52	29	88	12	88	85
2020-03	Rec	54	47	88	12	84	85
2020-02	Exp	58	67	88	12	90	85
2019-12	Exp	62	83	88	12	94	87
2019-09	Exp	56	48	88	12	89	87
2019-06	Exp	52	46	88	12	69	87
2019-03	Rec	45	6	88	11	70	87
2019-01	Rec	46	5	88	11	76	87

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023