Rankings/Syracuse, NY

Syracuse, NY

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 45060Compare

Risk Rank: #10 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +15

68score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Syracuse experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 5 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Valuation Lag — Liquidity is improving but rent-price ratios remain compressed.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Syracuse's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 10th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 5 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by permit growth and price momentum. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is compressed.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permit Growth

p99 (highest risk decile)

YoY permit change

Price Momentum

p98 (highest risk decile)

12-month HPI change

Migration

p88 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-9% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-8.7%p39

Days on Market YoY

-13.3%p25

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-3.1%p23

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum98

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth99

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita42

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability33

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment45

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration88

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+7.5%	p98
Permit Growth	+136.5%	p99
Permits/1K Pop	3.30	p42
Affordability	0.26	p33
Employment	+0.4%	p45
Net AGI Migration	-$137K	p88

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+136.5%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY-8.7%

Days on Market YoY-13.3%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 5 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Syracuse's counties diverge significantly — Onondaga County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Madison County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High36.0Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Syracuse, NY shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Onondaga County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Madison County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Onondaga CountyRisk Driver	100	High Risk	33.3%	100	100	100
Oswego County	33	Below Average	33.3%	50	50	0
Madison CountyStabilizer	17	Low Risk	33.3%	0	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	57	96	88	32	30	88
2025-09	Rec	54	96	88	32	10	88
2025-07	Ress	54	98	88	32	9	88
2025-06	Hyp	54	96	88	29	12	88
2025-05	Exp	54	95	88	29	16	88
2025-03	Exp	50	77	88	23	14	88
2025-01	Rec	53	94	88	23	15	88
2024-11	Rec	54	100	88	25	16	88
2024-10	Hyp	57	98	88	25	31	88
2024-08	Exp	58	95	88	23	42	88
2024-06	Exp	56	97	88	22	33	88
2024-05	Rec	58	97	88	22	41	88
2024-03	Rec	55	71	88	17	56	88
2024-02	Exp	57	78	88	17	62	88
2023-12	Exp	63	92	88	17	82	88
2023-09	Exp	64	98	88	17	83	88
2023-07	Rec	61	95	88	17	69	88
2023-05	Rec	62	92	88	16	80	88
2023-04	Exp	61	93	88	16	72	88
2023-02	Exp	61	78	88	15	89	88
2022-11	Exp	50	45	88	18	55	88
2022-10	Rec	52	41	88	18	65	88
2022-08	Rec	50	40	88	18	56	88
2022-07	Exp	51	42	88	18	63	88
2022-05	Exp	51	24	88	16	83	88
2022-02	Exp	49	23	88	17	68	88
2022-01	Rec	47	21	88	17	61	88
2021-11	Rec	50	31	88	16	74	85
2021-09	Exp	52	25	88	15	88	85
2021-07	Exp	50	29	88	15	73	85
2021-04	Exp	45	45	88	14	30	85
2021-03	Rec	60	78	88	15	83	85
2021-01	Rec	59	74	88	15	82	85
2020-12	Exp	60	85	88	14	79	85
2020-10	Exp	59	76	88	14	81	85
2020-08	Rec	60	85	88	13	83	85
2020-06	Rec	52	29	88	12	88	85
2020-03	Rec	54	47	88	12	84	85
2020-02	Exp	58	67	88	12	90	85
2019-12	Exp	62	83	88	12	94	87
2019-09	Exp	56	48	88	12	89	87
2019-06	Exp	52	46	88	12	69	87
2019-03	Rec	45	6	88	11	70	87
2019-01	Rec	46	5	88	11	76	87

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022