Stockton-Lodi, CA
Executive Summary
Stockton's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 268th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.
Stockton experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.
Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.
Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.
Cycle Phase
Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period
Key Dynamics
Risk is primarily driven by employment and permits per capita, while price momentum provides the most support.
Top Drivers
Market Signals
Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.
Liquidity
Valuation
Factor Details
12-month HPI change — higher = overheating
YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure
Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk
Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
National Context
Credit Conditions
Credit Regime
Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.
Supply Pipeline
Supply Regime
Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.
Local Signals
Metro Permit Activity
Permit Activity
Sharp CoolingRaw signal — not the composite percentile
Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro
Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.
Employment Concentration
Employment
DiversifiedInternal Structure
County-level structural analysis.
County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.
Score History
| Month | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026-06 | 24 |
| 2025-12 | 15 |
| 2025-10 | 35 |
| 2025-08 | 34 |
| 2025-05 | 38 |
| 2025-03 | 38 |
| 2025-01 | 40 |
| 2024-11 | 36 |
| 2024-08 | 44 |
| 2024-07 | 40 |
| 2024-05 | 46 |
| 2024-04 | 46 |
| 2024-03 | 48 |
| 2024-01 | 42 |
| 2023-10 | 48 |
| 2023-08 | 50 |
| 2023-06 | 48 |
| 2023-03 | 50 |
| 2023-01 | 48 |
| 2022-11 | 41 |
| 2022-10 | 37 |
| 2022-08 | 37 |
| 2022-07 | 37 |
| 2022-05 | 46 |
| 2022-03 | 48 |
| 2022-02 | 49 |
| 2021-12 | 52 |
| 2021-11 | 53 |
| 2021-10 | 54 |
| 2021-08 | 54 |
| 2021-07 | 54 |
| 2021-05 | 56 |
| 2021-02 | 51 |
| 2020-11 | 49 |
| 2020-09 | 44 |
| 2020-07 | 45 |
| 2020-06 | 44 |
| 2020-04 | 43 |
| 2020-03 | 40 |
| 2020-01 | 41 |
| 2019-10 | 43 |
| 2019-07 | 44 |
| 2019-06 | 46 |
| 2019-05 | 48 |
| 2019-03 | 52 |
| 2019-01 | 53 |