Rankings/Stockton-Lodi, CA

Stockton-Lodi, CA

Low RiskTier 1CBSA 44700Compare

Risk Rank: #274 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -20

15score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Stockton's housing market shows low risk, ranking 274th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+14% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Stockton experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking +11% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and affordability, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap38

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp21

Mortgage payment / income

Employmentp15

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking +11% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+13.9%p63

Days on Market YoY

+10.9%p69

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+5.2%p98

Months in status23

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-1.4%p2

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-32.0%p6

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

3.12p38

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.24p21

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.3%p15

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$330Kp9

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-32.0%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorTransportation & Warehousing 15.6%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	36	14	94	23	21	11
2025-10	Hyp	35	14	94	23	13	11
2025-08	Hyp	34	10	94	23	10	11
2025-05	Ress	38	11	94	24	30	11
2025-03	Ress	38	21	94	28	15	11
2025-01	Hyp	40	21	94	28	27	11
2024-11	Hyp	36	15	94	29	8	11
2024-08	Hyp	44	20	94	29	53	11
2024-07	Ress	40	21	94	29	29	11
2024-05	Ress	46	36	94	30	49	11
2024-04	Hyp	46	43	94	30	39	11
2024-03	Exp	48	51	94	33	41	11
2024-01	Exp	42	41	94	33	19	11
2023-10	Exp	48	17	94	38	69	11
2023-08	Rec	50	9	94	38	90	11
2023-06	Rec	48	1	94	35	91	11
2023-03	Hyp	50	1	94	39	98	11
2023-01	Ress	48	2	94	39	84	11
2022-11	Ress	41	3	94	39	42	11
2022-10	Hyp	37	4	94	39	19	11
2022-08	Hyp	37	11	94	45	3	11
2022-07	Ress	37	15	94	45	2	11
2022-05	Ress	46	58	94	53	2	11
2022-03	Hyp	48	72	94	53	2	11
2022-02	Rec	49	77	94	53	3	11
2021-12	Rec	52	87	93	51	10	12
2021-11	Hyp	53	89	93	51	16	12
2021-10	Ress	54	91	93	51	20	12
2021-08	Ress	54	93	93	51	21	12
2021-07	Exp	54	93	93	51	17	12
2021-05	Exp	56	93	93	49	30	12
2021-02	Exp	51	89	93	43	10	12
2020-11	Exp	49	61	93	61	5	15
2020-09	Rec	44	32	93	60	5	15
2020-07	Rec	45	36	93	60	11	15
2020-06	Exp	44	32	93	60	9	15
2020-04	Exp	43	22	93	60	13	15
2020-03	Rec	40	15	93	59	4	15
2020-01	Rec	41	19	93	59	5	15
2019-10	Rec	43	13	93	60	18	17
2019-07	Hyp	44	15	93	60	19	17
2019-06	Rec	46	33	93	61	13	17
2019-05	Hyp	48	39	93	61	23	17
2019-03	Ress	52	54	93	61	30	17
2019-01	Ress	53	66	93	61	26	17

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023