Rankings/Stockton-Lodi, CA

Stockton-Lodi, CA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 44700Compare

Risk Rank: #272 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↓ -10

24score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Stockton's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 272nd of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Stockton experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and permits per capita, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp65

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap36

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp21

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+1.1%p50

Days on Market YoY

+2.2%p52

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.7%p84

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-0.7%p4

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-27.2%p11

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

3.05p36

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.25p21

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

+0.1%p65

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$330Kp9

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-27.2%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorTransportation & Warehousing 15.6%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Rec	17	4	7	21	24	9
2025-11	Rec	36	14	94	23	21	11
2025-10	Hyp	35	14	94	23	13	11
2025-08	Hyp	34	10	94	23	10	11
2025-05	Ress	38	11	94	24	30	11
2025-03	Ress	38	21	94	28	15	11
2025-01	Hyp	40	21	94	28	27	11
2024-11	Hyp	36	15	94	29	8	11
2024-08	Hyp	44	20	94	29	53	11
2024-07	Ress	40	21	94	29	29	11
2024-05	Ress	46	36	94	30	49	11
2024-04	Hyp	46	43	94	30	39	11
2024-03	Exp	48	51	94	33	41	11
2024-01	Exp	42	41	94	33	19	11
2023-10	Exp	48	17	94	38	69	11
2023-08	Rec	50	9	94	38	90	11
2023-06	Rec	48	1	94	35	91	11
2023-03	Hyp	50	1	94	39	98	11
2023-01	Ress	48	2	94	39	84	11
2022-11	Ress	41	3	94	39	42	11
2022-10	Hyp	37	4	94	39	19	11
2022-08	Hyp	37	11	94	45	3	11
2022-07	Ress	37	15	94	45	2	11
2022-05	Ress	46	58	94	53	2	11
2022-03	Hyp	48	72	94	53	2	11
2022-02	Rec	49	77	94	53	3	11
2021-12	Rec	52	87	93	51	10	12
2021-11	Hyp	53	89	93	51	16	12
2021-10	Ress	54	91	93	51	20	12
2021-08	Ress	54	93	93	51	21	12
2021-07	Exp	54	93	93	51	17	12
2021-05	Exp	56	93	93	49	30	12
2021-02	Exp	51	89	93	43	10	12
2020-11	Exp	49	61	93	61	5	15
2020-09	Rec	44	32	93	60	5	15
2020-07	Rec	45	36	93	60	11	15
2020-06	Exp	44	32	93	60	9	15
2020-04	Exp	43	22	93	60	13	15
2020-03	Rec	40	15	93	59	4	15
2020-01	Rec	41	19	93	59	5	15
2019-10	Rec	43	13	93	60	18	17
2019-07	Hyp	44	15	93	60	19	17
2019-06	Rec	46	33	93	61	13	17
2019-05	Hyp	48	39	93	61	23	17
2019-03	Ress	52	54	93	61	30	17
2019-01	Ress	53	66	93	61	26	17

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023