Rankings/State College, PA

State College, PA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 44300Compare

Risk Rank: #240 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -15

40score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

State College experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 1 month·Previously: Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

State College's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 240th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by migration and price momentum. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p74 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p66 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Affordability

p38 (below average risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +5% pace with homes taking +8% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+5.3%p54

Days on Market YoY

+8.4%p64

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.5%p83

Months in status13

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum66

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth15

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita20

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability38

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment24

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration74

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.5%	p66
Permit Growth	-22.3%	p15
Permits/1K Pop	1.93	p20
Affordability	0.26	p38
Employment	+0.9%	p24
Net AGI Migration	-$28K	p74

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-22.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+5.3%

Days on Market YoY+8.4%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	52	63	57	37	53	74
2025-09	Hyp	50	69	57	37	35	74
2025-07	Ress	51	87	57	37	27	74
2025-05	Ress	44	54	57	37	17	74
2025-04	Exp	50	37	57	37	68	74
2025-02	Exp	54	48	57	37	84	74
2024-12	Hyp	55	64	57	37	73	74
2024-11	Rec	56	54	57	37	87	74
2024-10	Ress	56	47	57	37	93	74
2024-08	Hyp	58	57	57	31	100	74
2024-06	Hyp	65	92	57	40	99	74
2024-05	Rec	43	62	57	40	0	74
2024-04	Hyp	54	29	57	40	96	74
2024-02	Ress	47	13	57	34	78	74
2023-12	Ress	52	48	57	51	58	74
2023-11	Exp	51	51	57	51	49	74
2023-09	Exp	45	19	57	43	49	74
2023-08	Rec	39	26	57	43	7	74
2023-06	Rec	57	93	57	57	34	74
2023-03	Ress	46	53	57	53	10	74
2023-01	Exp	47	63	57	53	11	74
2022-11	Exp	43	31	57	51	18	74
2022-08	Exp	42	2	57	46	46	74
2022-05	Exp	43	11	57	51	38	74
2022-02	Rec	37	4	57	49	13	74
2021-12	Rec	34	6	57	39	19	61
2021-11	Exp	36	7	57	39	29	61
2021-09	Exp	43	12	57	43	58	61
2021-06	Rec	45	4	57	43	81	61
2021-04	Rec	44	4	57	43	74	61
2021-03	Exp	48	8	57	47	92	61
2021-01	Exp	50	13	57	47	99	61
2020-12	Rec	53	12	57	59	97	68
2020-10	Rec	52	8	57	59	97	68
2020-07	Rec	48	10	57	61	69	68
2020-04	Rec	55	34	57	64	83	68
2020-03	Exp	53	11	57	61	97	68
2020-01	Exp	41	24	57	61	9	68
2019-12	Rec	56	61	57	63	64	70
2019-10	Rec	63	77	57	63	86	70
2019-08	Hyp	64	78	57	64	90	70
2019-06	Exp	57	67	57	65	60	70
2019-04	Exp	53	46	57	65	55	70
2019-03	Rec	52	34	57	64	62	70
2019-01	Rec	51	46	57	64	47	70

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022