Rankings/Springfield, MO

Springfield, MO

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 44180Compare

Risk Rank: #255 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -9

35score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Springfield's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 255th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Springfield experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking -3% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and affordability, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp51

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp49

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap43

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking -3% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+8.4%p57

Days on Market YoY

-3.1%p41

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.2%p88

Months in status20

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+2.6%p42

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-24.1%p14

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.41p43

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p49

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.4%p10

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$14Kp51

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-24.1%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 27.8%

7 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Springfield's 5 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low7.3Limited data

5 of 5 counties scored

Springfield, MO shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Polk County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Webster County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Polk CountyRisk Driver	69	Elevated	6.7%	75	100	25
Greene County	62	Elevated	62.3%	50	50	100
Christian County	56	Elevated	19.1%	25	25	75
Webster CountyStabilizer	38	Below Average	8.3%	0	75	50
Dallas County<5%	25	Low Risk	3.6%	100	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	38	22	50	43	9	49
2025-09	Rec	40	36	50	43	9	49
2025-08	Hyp	40	41	50	43	5	49
2025-06	Hyp	43	42	50	47	14	49
2025-04	Ress	42	23	50	46	33	49
2025-02	Ress	54	74	50	54	40	49
2025-01	Hyp	51	75	50	54	24	49
2024-11	Hyp	44	42	50	47	21	49
2024-08	Hyp	42	25	50	46	29	49
2024-06	Ress	50	65	50	51	29	49
2024-04	Ress	53	73	50	51	39	49
2024-02	Hyp	53	67	50	50	49	49
2024-01	Rec	54	65	50	50	53	49
2023-11	Hyp	53	64	50	52	50	49
2023-09	Hyp	54	58	50	52	62	49
2023-08	Rec	53	54	50	52	60	49
2023-06	Rec	50	41	50	50	59	49
2023-05	Hyp	52	50	50	50	59	49
2023-03	Hyp	52	56	50	48	58	49
2023-02	Ress	53	54	50	47	63	49
2022-12	Ress	57	62	50	57	68	49
2022-09	Hyp	58	80	50	60	55	49
2022-07	Ress	60	81	50	60	68	49
2022-05	Ress	58	68	50	55	70	49
2022-04	Exp	57	67	50	55	67	49
2022-02	Exp	58	77	50	56	60	49
2021-12	Rec	57	79	50	43	73	42
2021-10	Rec	53	76	50	43	55	42
2021-09	Exp	54	73	50	40	62	42
2021-07	Exp	54	71	50	40	68	42
2021-04	Rec	51	81	50	41	40	42
2021-02	Rec	40	45	50	36	14	42
2020-12	Exp	48	39	50	63	14	65
2020-10	Exp	50	50	50	63	17	65
2020-09	Rec	50	54	50	63	15	65
2020-07	Rec	52	66	50	63	12	65
2020-05	Exp	52	57	50	62	21	65
2020-03	Exp	60	84	50	63	46	65
2019-12	Exp	56	73	50	63	51	45
2019-09	Exp	54	61	50	63	49	45
2019-06	Rec	55	84	50	63	36	45
2019-04	Rec	53	68	50	63	37	45
2019-03	Exp	50	59	50	61	31	45
2019-01	Exp	50	58	50	61	33	45

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022