Rankings/Springfield, MA

Springfield, MA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 44140Compare

Risk Rank: #77 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +11

56score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Springfield's housing market shows average risk, ranking 77th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Significant oversupply — conditions increasingly favor buyers over sellers.

Springfield experienced a market correction from mid-2026 through mid-2026. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory has surged +16% YoY with days on market up +34% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permit growth, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp91

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp80

YoY permit change

Price Momentump72

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +16% YoY with days on market up +34% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY

+16.0%p66

Days on Market YoY

+34.5%p91

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.6%p73

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.3%p72

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+22.3%p80

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

0.78p2

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.31p64

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+1.1%p25

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$98Kp91

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+22.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 26.2%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Ress	54	78	78	63	14	91
2026-05	Exp	52	80	55	63	22	91
2025-11	Rec	42	62	5	63	34	86
2025-09	Rec	48	74	5	63	55	86
2025-08	Hyp	45	87	5	63	27	86
2025-06	Rec	50	73	5	60	71	86
2025-05	Hyp	46	64	5	60	60	86
2025-03	Ress	50	72	5	58	74	86
2025-01	Ress	51	77	5	58	76	86
2024-12	Hyp	54	81	5	61	86	86
2024-11	Rec	54	76	5	61	95	86
2024-10	Ress	50	65	5	61	81	86
2024-08	Exp	48	43	5	57	94	86
2024-06	Ress	55	88	5	58	88	86
2024-05	Exp	56	90	5	58	91	86
2024-03	Rec	52	69	5	54	96	86
2024-01	Rec	46	35	5	54	94	86
2023-12	Exp	53	68	5	60	95	86
2023-10	Exp	55	81	5	60	94	86
2023-07	Rec	48	40	5	54	99	86
2023-05	Rec	46	33	5	51	99	86
2023-03	Ress	54	74	5	58	99	86
2023-01	Ress	50	54	5	58	95	86
2022-12	Exp	43	26	5	40	99	86
2022-10	Rec	43	24	5	40	99	86
2022-08	Rec	41	21	5	42	88	86
2022-07	Ress	41	19	5	42	92	86
2022-05	Exp	36	9	5	39	74	86
2022-03	Exp	38	31	5	43	62	86
2022-01	Rec	40	30	5	43	72	86
2021-11	Rec	40	38	5	39	68	86
2021-09	Exp	34	55	5	41	12	86
2021-07	Exp	34	64	5	41	5	86
2021-04	Exp	37	72	5	41	15	86
2021-03	Rec	49	81	5	40	81	86
2021-01	Rec	48	77	5	40	74	86
2020-12	Exp	51	89	5	42	78	89
2020-10	Exp	52	89	5	42	86	89
2020-09	Rec	49	70	5	36	92	89
2020-07	Rec	48	64	5	37	89	89
2020-05	Exp	45	50	5	35	89	89
2020-03	Exp	44	60	5	36	68	89
2020-02	Rec	44	66	5	36	64	89
2019-12	Rec	40	57	5	34	55	88
2019-11	Exp	38	51	5	34	48	88
2019-09	Exp	40	47	5	35	64	88
2019-08	Rec	40	46	5	35	65	88
2019-06	Rec	35	42	5	35	37	88
2019-03	Exp	28	19	5	34	20	88
2019-01	Exp	33	24	5	34	45	88

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023