Rankings/Springfield, MA

Springfield, MA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 44140Compare

Risk Rank: #158 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -6

48score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Springfield experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Springfield's housing market shows average risk, ranking 158th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and price momentum. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p86 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p67 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Affordability

p64 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +9% pace with homes taking -4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+8.6%p58

Days on Market YoY

-4.3%p39

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.0%p87

Months in status44

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum67

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth36

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita1

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability64

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment35

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration86

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.5%	p67
Permit Growth	-9.0%	p36
Permits/1K Pop	0.72	p1
Affordability	0.29	p64
Employment	+0.6%	p35
Net AGI Migration	-$96K	p86

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-9.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY+8.6%

Days on Market YoY-4.3%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	42	62	5	63	34	86
2025-09	Rec	48	74	5	63	55	86
2025-08	Hyp	45	87	5	63	27	86
2025-06	Rec	50	73	5	60	71	86
2025-05	Hyp	46	64	5	60	60	86
2025-03	Ress	50	72	5	58	74	86
2025-01	Ress	51	77	5	58	76	86
2024-12	Hyp	54	81	5	61	86	86
2024-11	Rec	54	76	5	61	95	86
2024-10	Ress	50	65	5	61	81	86
2024-08	Exp	48	43	5	57	94	86
2024-06	Ress	55	88	5	58	88	86
2024-05	Exp	56	90	5	58	91	86
2024-03	Rec	52	69	5	54	96	86
2024-01	Rec	46	35	5	54	94	86
2023-12	Exp	53	68	5	60	95	86
2023-10	Exp	55	81	5	60	94	86
2023-07	Rec	48	40	5	54	99	86
2023-05	Rec	46	33	5	51	99	86
2023-03	Ress	54	74	5	58	99	86
2023-01	Ress	50	54	5	58	95	86
2022-12	Exp	43	26	5	40	99	86
2022-10	Rec	43	24	5	40	99	86
2022-08	Rec	41	21	5	42	88	86
2022-07	Ress	41	19	5	42	92	86
2022-05	Exp	36	9	5	39	74	86
2022-03	Exp	38	31	5	43	62	86
2022-01	Rec	40	30	5	43	72	86
2021-11	Rec	40	38	5	39	68	86
2021-09	Exp	34	55	5	41	12	86
2021-07	Exp	34	64	5	41	5	86
2021-04	Exp	37	72	5	41	15	86
2021-03	Rec	49	81	5	40	81	86
2021-01	Rec	48	77	5	40	74	86
2020-12	Exp	51	89	5	42	78	89
2020-10	Exp	52	89	5	42	86	89
2020-09	Rec	49	70	5	36	92	89
2020-07	Rec	48	64	5	37	89	89
2020-05	Exp	45	50	5	35	89	89
2020-03	Exp	44	60	5	36	68	89
2020-02	Rec	44	66	5	36	64	89
2019-12	Rec	40	57	5	34	55	88
2019-11	Exp	38	51	5	34	48	88
2019-09	Exp	40	47	5	35	64	88
2019-08	Rec	40	46	5	35	65	88
2019-06	Rec	35	42	5	35	37	88
2019-03	Exp	28	19	5	34	20	88
2019-01	Exp	33	24	5	34	45	88

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022