Rankings/Springfield, MA

Springfield, MA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 44140Compare

Risk Rank: #135 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -4

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Springfield's housing market shows average risk, ranking 135th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Springfield experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +9% pace with homes taking -4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and price momentum, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp89

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump74

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp61

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +9% pace with homes taking -4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+8.6%p58

Days on Market YoY

-4.3%p39

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.2%p81

Months in status44

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+4.2%p74

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-9.0%p36

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

0.72p1

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.29p61

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.6%p36

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$96Kp89

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-9.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 26.2%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	42	62	5	63	34	86
2025-09	Rec	48	74	5	63	55	86
2025-08	Hyp	45	87	5	63	27	86
2025-06	Rec	50	73	5	60	71	86
2025-05	Hyp	46	64	5	60	60	86
2025-03	Ress	50	72	5	58	74	86
2025-01	Ress	51	77	5	58	76	86
2024-12	Hyp	54	81	5	61	86	86
2024-11	Rec	54	76	5	61	95	86
2024-10	Ress	50	65	5	61	81	86
2024-08	Exp	48	43	5	57	94	86
2024-06	Ress	55	88	5	58	88	86
2024-05	Exp	56	90	5	58	91	86
2024-03	Rec	52	69	5	54	96	86
2024-01	Rec	46	35	5	54	94	86
2023-12	Exp	53	68	5	60	95	86
2023-10	Exp	55	81	5	60	94	86
2023-07	Rec	48	40	5	54	99	86
2023-05	Rec	46	33	5	51	99	86
2023-03	Ress	54	74	5	58	99	86
2023-01	Ress	50	54	5	58	95	86
2022-12	Exp	43	26	5	40	99	86
2022-10	Rec	43	24	5	40	99	86
2022-08	Rec	41	21	5	42	88	86
2022-07	Ress	41	19	5	42	92	86
2022-05	Exp	36	9	5	39	74	86
2022-03	Exp	38	31	5	43	62	86
2022-01	Rec	40	30	5	43	72	86
2021-11	Rec	40	38	5	39	68	86
2021-09	Exp	34	55	5	41	12	86
2021-07	Exp	34	64	5	41	5	86
2021-04	Exp	37	72	5	41	15	86
2021-03	Rec	49	81	5	40	81	86
2021-01	Rec	48	77	5	40	74	86
2020-12	Exp	51	89	5	42	78	89
2020-10	Exp	52	89	5	42	86	89
2020-09	Rec	49	70	5	36	92	89
2020-07	Rec	48	64	5	37	89	89
2020-05	Exp	45	50	5	35	89	89
2020-03	Exp	44	60	5	36	68	89
2020-02	Rec	44	66	5	36	64	89
2019-12	Rec	40	57	5	34	55	88
2019-11	Exp	38	51	5	34	48	88
2019-09	Exp	40	47	5	35	64	88
2019-08	Rec	40	46	5	35	65	88
2019-06	Rec	35	42	5	35	37	88
2019-03	Exp	28	19	5	34	20	88
2019-01	Exp	33	24	5	34	45	88

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022