Springfield, IL
Executive Summary
Springfield's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 244th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.
Springfield experienced a market correction from late 2024 through early 2025. The market is currently recovering.
Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.
Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.
Cycle Phase
Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period
Key Dynamics
Risk is primarily driven by employment and migration, while affordability provides the most support.
Top Drivers
Market Signals
Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.
Liquidity
Valuation
Factor Details
12-month HPI change — higher = overheating
YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure
Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk
Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
National Context
Credit Conditions
Credit Regime
Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.
Supply Pipeline
Supply Regime
Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.
Local Signals
Metro Permit Activity
Permit Activity
CoolingRaw signal — not the composite percentile
Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro
Based on limited permit volume
Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.
Employment Concentration
Employment
ConcentratedInternal Structure
County-level structural analysis.
County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.
Score History
| Month | Score |
|---|---|
| 2025-12 | 42 |
| 2025-10 | 42 |
| 2025-09 | 32 |
| 2025-07 | 35 |
| 2025-05 | 38 |
| 2025-03 | 38 |
| 2025-02 | 38 |
| 2024-12 | 34 |
| 2024-11 | 35 |
| 2024-09 | 30 |
| 2024-08 | 30 |
| 2024-07 | 30 |
| 2024-06 | 28 |
| 2024-04 | 37 |
| 2024-03 | 36 |
| 2024-02 | 36 |
| 2024-01 | 37 |
| 2023-11 | 41 |
| 2023-10 | 43 |
| 2023-08 | 44 |
| 2023-07 | 44 |
| 2023-05 | 39 |
| 2023-03 | 24 |
| 2023-01 | 26 |
| 2022-11 | 30 |
| 2022-09 | 28 |
| 2022-08 | 26 |
| 2022-06 | 21 |
| 2022-03 | 28 |
| 2022-01 | 25 |
| 2021-11 | 20 |
| 2021-10 | 20 |
| 2021-08 | 22 |
| 2021-05 | 22 |
| 2021-04 | 26 |
| 2021-02 | 26 |
| 2021-01 | 28 |
| 2020-11 | 26 |
| 2020-10 | 26 |
| 2020-08 | 26 |
| 2020-06 | 28 |
| 2020-04 | 25 |
| 2020-03 | 30 |
| 2020-01 | 27 |
| 2019-12 | 30 |
| 2019-10 | 31 |
| 2019-07 | 32 |
| 2019-06 | 31 |
| 2019-04 | 31 |
| 2019-03 | 31 |
| 2019-01 | 31 |