US Metro Real Estate Intelligence
Rankings/Springfield, IL

Springfield, IL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 44100Compare
Risk Rank: #212 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m): +8
42score
Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Springfield's housing market shows average risk, ranking 212th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (-11% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Springfield experienced a market correction from late 2024 through early 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is declining (-11% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession
3 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

2019202020212022202320242025

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and price momentum, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp91
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Price Momentump81
12-month HPI change
Migrationp68
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-11% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable
Active Listings YoY
-11.3%p36
Days on Market YoY
+13.0%p72
Months in status10
Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced
Rent vs. Price Growth
-0.1%p64
Months in status11
Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.
Factor Details
Lower riskHigher risk
Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk
Price MomentumHigh Risk
+4.8%p81

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk
-28.0%p10

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk
0.93p3

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk
0.17p0

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk
-1.0%p91

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated
-$16Kp68

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards
-5.7Normal
Rate Change (YoY)
-74 bpsNormal
Mortgage Risk Premium
+191 bpsElevated
Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio
0.92High
Completion-Permit Divergence
+1.9 ppNormal
Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1
Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling
YoY Permit Growth
-28.0%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated
Largest SectorGovernment 57.3%
QCEW 2024 annual averages
Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History
MonthScore
2025-1144
2025-0932
2025-0735
2025-0538
2025-0338
2025-0238
2024-1234
2024-1135
2024-0930
2024-0830
2024-0730
2024-0628
2024-0437
2024-0336
2024-0236
2024-0137
2023-1141
2023-1043
2023-0844
2023-0744
2023-0539
2023-0324
2023-0126
2022-1130
2022-0928
2022-0826
2022-0621
2022-0328
2022-0125
2021-1120
2021-1020
2021-0822
2021-0522
2021-0426
2021-0226
2021-0128
2020-1126
2020-1026
2020-0826
2020-0628
2020-0425
2020-0330
2020-0127
2019-1230
2019-1031
2019-0732
2019-0631
2019-0431
2019-0331
2019-0131
Data Vintages
Price (HPI)2025-Q4
Permits2026-01
Income2024
Employment2025-12
Migration2023