Rankings/Spartanburg, SC

Spartanburg, SC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 43900Compare

Risk Rank: #61 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +11

57score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Spartanburg's housing market shows average risk, ranking 61st of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 4 months. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Spartanburg experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+28% YoY) and days on market are up +2% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

4 months in current phase·from Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and price momentum, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap92

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentump79

12-month HPI change

Permit Growthp77

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+28% YoY) and days on market are up +2% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+27.7%p77

Days on Market YoY

+1.5%p50

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.8%p25

Months in status20

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+4.5%p79

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+16.1%p77

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

9.88p92

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.30p66

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.3%p13

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$148Kp17

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+16.1%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorManufacturing 27.4%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	50	60	64	65	6	22
2025-09	Hyp	46	36	64	65	4	22
2025-08	Rec	44	23	64	65	3	22
2025-06	Rec	46	35	64	67	3	22
2025-04	Ress	53	74	64	67	4	22
2025-02	Ress	44	19	64	60	12	22
2025-01	Rec	44	19	64	60	14	22
2024-12	Hyp	46	28	64	64	12	22
2024-10	Hyp	46	28	64	64	13	22
2024-07	Hyp	52	60	64	68	12	22
2024-06	Ress	47	35	64	63	13	22
2024-04	Ress	54	82	64	63	10	22
2024-02	Hyp	56	85	64	67	15	22
2024-01	Exp	56	75	64	67	26	22
2023-11	Exp	54	59	64	78	14	22
2023-10	Rec	52	47	64	78	16	22
2023-08	Rec	59	90	64	77	14	22
2023-06	Hyp	53	50	64	68	27	22
2023-04	Ress	56	53	64	68	42	22
2023-02	Ress	63	89	64	71	46	22
2022-11	Ress	66	96	64	78	51	22
2022-08	Ress	69	80	64	70	91	22
2022-05	Hyp	68	82	64	69	86	22
2022-04	Exp	69	82	64	69	92	22
2022-02	Rec	68	73	64	66	96	22
2021-12	Rec	66	78	65	43	100	25
2021-10	Exp	66	77	65	43	99	25
2021-08	Exp	60	53	65	36	93	25
2021-05	Rec	55	51	65	35	68	25
2021-03	Rec	46	48	65	36	20	25
2021-02	Exp	45	46	65	36	12	25
2020-12	Exp	46	44	65	45	10	27
2020-10	Rec	50	61	65	45	16	27
2020-08	Rec	50	65	65	45	10	27
2020-05	Rec	52	64	65	45	23	27
2020-02	Rec	58	91	65	46	37	27
2020-01	Exp	58	93	65	46	33	27
2019-11	Exp	51	71	65	44	19	23
2019-08	Rec	49	77	65	44	0	23
2019-06	Rec	49	76	65	45	1	23
2019-04	Exp	49	72	65	45	1	23
2019-02	Exp	50	82	65	40	5	23
2019-01	Exp	51	89	65	40	5	23

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023