Rankings/Spartanburg, SC

Spartanburg, SC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 43900Compare

Risk Rank: #76 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +10

56score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Spartanburg experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 4 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Spartanburg's housing market shows average risk, ranking 76th of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 4 months. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and permit growth. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p92 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growth

p77 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Price Momentum

p69 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+28% YoY) and days on market are up +2% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+27.7%p77

Days on Market YoY

+1.5%p50

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.0%p34

Months in status20

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum69

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth77

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita92

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability66

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment12

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration22

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.6%	p69
Permit Growth	+16.1%	p77
Permits/1K Pop	9.88	p92
Affordability	0.29	p66
Employment	+1.3%	p12
Net AGI Migration	+$154K	p22

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+16.1%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY+27.7%

Days on Market YoY+1.5%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	50	60	64	65	6	22
2025-09	Hyp	46	36	64	65	4	22
2025-08	Rec	44	23	64	65	3	22
2025-06	Rec	46	35	64	67	3	22
2025-04	Ress	53	74	64	67	4	22
2025-02	Ress	44	19	64	60	12	22
2025-01	Rec	44	19	64	60	14	22
2024-12	Hyp	46	28	64	64	12	22
2024-10	Hyp	46	28	64	64	13	22
2024-07	Hyp	52	60	64	68	12	22
2024-06	Ress	47	35	64	63	13	22
2024-04	Ress	54	82	64	63	10	22
2024-02	Hyp	56	85	64	67	15	22
2024-01	Exp	56	75	64	67	26	22
2023-11	Exp	54	59	64	78	14	22
2023-10	Rec	52	47	64	78	16	22
2023-08	Rec	59	90	64	77	14	22
2023-06	Hyp	53	50	64	68	27	22
2023-04	Ress	56	53	64	68	42	22
2023-02	Ress	63	89	64	71	46	22
2022-11	Ress	66	96	64	78	51	22
2022-08	Ress	69	80	64	70	91	22
2022-05	Hyp	68	82	64	69	86	22
2022-04	Exp	69	82	64	69	92	22
2022-02	Rec	68	73	64	66	96	22
2021-12	Rec	66	78	65	43	100	25
2021-10	Exp	66	77	65	43	99	25
2021-08	Exp	60	53	65	36	93	25
2021-05	Rec	55	51	65	35	68	25
2021-03	Rec	46	48	65	36	20	25
2021-02	Exp	45	46	65	36	12	25
2020-12	Exp	46	44	65	45	10	27
2020-10	Rec	50	61	65	45	16	27
2020-08	Rec	50	65	65	45	10	27
2020-05	Rec	52	64	65	45	23	27
2020-02	Rec	58	91	65	46	37	27
2020-01	Exp	58	93	65	46	33	27
2019-11	Exp	51	71	65	44	19	23
2019-08	Rec	49	77	65	44	0	23
2019-06	Rec	49	76	65	45	1	23
2019-04	Exp	49	72	65	45	1	23
2019-02	Exp	50	82	65	40	5	23
2019-01	Exp	51	89	65	40	5	23

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022