Rankings/South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI

South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 43780Compare

Risk Rank: #109 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -13

52score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

South Bend's housing market shows average risk, ranking 109th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

South Bend experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is declining (-9% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and affordability, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp74

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp67

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentump59

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-9% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

-8.8%p39

Days on Market YoY

+18.2%p79

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.6%p74

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+3.5%p59

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-8.7%p37

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.53p30

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.30p67

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.3%p47

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$24Kp74

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-8.7%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 16.2%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	67	65	98	69	58	80
2025-09	Rec	61	59	98	69	25	80
2025-06	Rec	61	61	98	68	23	80
2025-05	Ress	62	69	98	68	22	80
2025-04	Hyp	60	71	98	68	11	80
2025-02	Hyp	59	61	98	64	15	80
2025-01	Rec	61	66	98	64	25	80
2024-11	Hyp	67	83	98	67	40	80
2024-09	Ress	74	86	98	65	78	80
2024-07	Ress	77	89	98	65	94	80
2024-06	Hyp	73	70	98	65	93	80
2024-05	Ress	73	62	98	65	98	80
2024-03	Ress	67	29	98	62	99	80
2024-02	Hyp	67	31	98	62	99	80
2023-12	Hyp	67	56	98	44	89	80
2023-10	Exp	66	76	98	44	62	80
2023-08	Rec	63	67	98	42	58	80
2023-06	Rec	68	89	98	46	64	80
2023-05	Hyp	64	88	98	46	38	80
2023-03	Hyp	66	90	98	44	47	80
2023-02	Ress	62	89	98	44	26	80
2022-12	Ress	65	63	98	49	65	80
2022-10	Hyp	64	63	98	49	60	80
2022-09	Rec	63	64	98	46	58	80
2022-08	Exp	62	63	98	46	54	80
2022-06	Exp	64	60	98	45	70	80
2022-03	Exp	62	44	98	43	77	80
2022-01	Rec	64	45	98	44	84	80
2021-11	Rec	59	47	98	33	91	54
2021-10	Exp	59	46	98	33	93	54
2021-08	Exp	60	46	98	32	98	54
2021-05	Exp	59	56	98	33	82	54
2021-04	Rec	55	61	98	33	52	54
2021-02	Rec	60	57	98	32	85	54
2021-01	Exp	59	56	98	32	84	54
2020-11	Exp	69	73	98	47	92	74
2020-10	Rec	70	76	98	47	92	74
2020-08	Rec	70	76	98	46	91	74
2020-06	Exp	62	42	98	46	81	74
2020-04	Exp	62	42	98	46	82	74
2020-03	Rec	67	56	98	45	98	74
2020-01	Rec	69	68	98	45	95	74
2019-12	Exp	55	53	98	44	57	46
2019-10	Exp	54	53	98	44	54	46
2019-07	Rec	55	70	98	47	36	46
2019-05	Rec	58	65	98	47	61	46
2019-04	Exp	60	62	98	47	78	46
2019-02	Exp	49	36	98	44	37	46
2019-01	Exp	49	37	98	44	37	46

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023