Rankings/Sioux Falls, SD-MN

Sioux Falls, SD-MN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 43620Compare

Risk Rank: #135 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +1

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Sioux Falls's housing market shows average risk, ranking 135th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Recovery underway but inventory still elevated — watch for follow-through.

Sioux Falls experienced a market correction from early 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is elevated (+17% YoY) and days on market are up +10% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and price momentum, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap85

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentump69

12-month HPI change

Employmentp52

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+17% YoY) and days on market are up +10% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+17.3%p67

Days on Market YoY

+9.8%p67

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.9%p24

Months in status24

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+4.1%p69

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-14.4%p27

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

8.09p85

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.26p34

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.2%p52

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$56Kp34

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-14.4%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorRetail Trade 41.5%

3 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Sioux Falls's counties diverge significantly — Minnehaha County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with McCook County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High24.6

5 of 5 counties scored

Sioux Falls, SD-MN shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Minnehaha County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while McCook County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Minnehaha CountyRisk Driver	88	High Risk	68.2%	100	50	100
Rock County<5%	75	Elevated	3.2%	50	100	75
Lincoln County	44	Below Average	23.7%	75	0	50
McCook CountyStabilizer<5%	25	Low Risk	1.9%	0	75	0
Turner County<5%	19	Low Risk	3.0%	25	25	25

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	45	41	19	33	55	33
2025-09	Hyp	48	33	19	33	80	33
2025-07	Ress	47	30	19	33	80	33
2025-05	Ress	48	30	19	31	85	33
2025-02	Ress	45	41	19	35	51	33
2025-01	Rec	43	39	19	35	42	33
2024-12	Hyp	49	35	19	37	80	33
2024-10	Hyp	37	12	19	37	31	33
2024-09	Exp	33	12	19	37	6	33
2024-07	Exp	36	19	19	37	19	33
2024-06	Rec	34	9	19	34	23	33
2024-04	Rec	32	10	19	34	9	33
2024-01	Rec	36	23	19	36	14	33
2023-10	Rec	45	55	19	50	24	33
2023-09	Hyp	46	45	19	49	43	33
2023-07	Ress	43	38	19	49	29	33
2023-05	Ress	44	45	19	50	25	33
2023-04	Hyp	45	45	19	50	35	33
2023-03	Ress	46	43	19	46	45	33
2023-01	Ress	49	53	19	46	54	33
2022-12	Hyp	45	56	19	35	39	33
2022-11	Exp	45	53	19	35	43	33
2022-09	Exp	49	66	19	37	52	33
2022-06	Exp	50	58	19	37	62	33
2022-03	Rec	46	49	19	36	47	33
2022-01	Rec	49	61	19	36	57	33
2021-12	Exp	50	63	19	26	68	35
2021-10	Exp	48	53	19	26	63	35
2021-07	Exp	45	52	19	26	47	35
2021-04	Exp	48	57	19	25	63	35
2021-03	Rec	33	20	19	23	14	35
2021-01	Rec	33	19	19	23	11	35
2020-10	Rec	39	36	19	45	9	34
2020-07	Rec	40	44	19	45	11	34
2020-05	Ress	42	47	19	45	15	34
2020-03	Hyp	45	61	19	46	22	34
2020-01	Rec	46	49	19	46	37	34
2019-12	Exp	45	42	19	46	53	21
2019-10	Exp	44	46	19	46	42	21
2019-07	Exp	47	53	19	47	51	21
2019-04	Exp	46	53	19	46	45	21
2019-01	Exp	48	55	19	47	54	21

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022