Rankings/Sioux Falls, SD-MN

Sioux Falls, SD-MN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 43620Compare

Risk Rank: #122 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):— +2

51score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Sioux Falls's housing market shows average risk, ranking 122nd of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Sioux Falls experienced a market correction from early 2025 through late 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (+2% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and permit growth, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap89

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp78

YoY permit change

Employmentp58

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+2% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+2.4%p51

Days on Market YoY

+2.2%p52

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.8%p91

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.1%p26

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+20.8%p78

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

9.46p89

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.27p31

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.2%p58

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$70Kp26

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+20.8%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorRetail Trade 41.5%

3 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	40	34	38	32	23	26
2025-12	Rec	49	69	27	34	52	26
2025-11	Hyp	45	41	19	33	55	33
2025-09	Hyp	48	33	19	33	80	33
2025-07	Ress	47	30	19	33	80	33
2025-05	Ress	48	30	19	31	85	33
2025-02	Ress	45	41	19	35	51	33
2025-01	Rec	43	39	19	35	42	33
2024-12	Hyp	49	35	19	37	80	33
2024-10	Hyp	37	12	19	37	31	33
2024-09	Exp	33	12	19	37	6	33
2024-07	Exp	36	19	19	37	19	33
2024-06	Rec	34	9	19	34	23	33
2024-04	Rec	32	10	19	34	9	33
2024-01	Rec	36	23	19	36	14	33
2023-10	Rec	45	55	19	50	24	33
2023-09	Hyp	46	45	19	49	43	33
2023-07	Ress	43	38	19	49	29	33
2023-05	Ress	44	45	19	50	25	33
2023-04	Hyp	45	45	19	50	35	33
2023-03	Ress	46	43	19	46	45	33
2023-01	Ress	49	53	19	46	54	33
2022-12	Hyp	45	56	19	35	39	33
2022-11	Exp	45	53	19	35	43	33
2022-09	Exp	49	66	19	37	52	33
2022-06	Exp	50	58	19	37	62	33
2022-03	Rec	46	49	19	36	47	33
2022-01	Rec	49	61	19	36	57	33
2021-12	Exp	50	63	19	26	68	35
2021-10	Exp	48	53	19	26	63	35
2021-07	Exp	45	52	19	26	47	35
2021-04	Exp	48	57	19	25	63	35
2021-03	Rec	33	20	19	23	14	35
2021-01	Rec	33	19	19	23	11	35
2020-10	Rec	39	36	19	45	9	34
2020-07	Rec	40	44	19	45	11	34
2020-05	Ress	42	47	19	45	15	34
2020-03	Hyp	45	61	19	46	22	34
2020-01	Rec	46	49	19	46	37	34
2019-12	Exp	45	42	19	46	53	21
2019-10	Exp	44	46	19	46	42	21
2019-07	Exp	47	53	19	47	51	21
2019-04	Exp	46	53	19	46	45	21
2019-01	Exp	48	55	19	47	54	21

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023