Rankings/Shreveport-Bossier City, LA

Shreveport-Bossier City, LA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 43340Compare

Risk Rank: #123 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +8

51score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Shreveport's housing market shows average risk, ranking 123rd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+11% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Shreveport experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp82

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp60

YoY permit change

Price Momentump50

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+11.2%p60

Days on Market YoY

+4.0%p56

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.9%p77

Months in status39

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+3.1%p50

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

+4.8%p60

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.83p34

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.25p31

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.3%p47

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$42Kp82

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+4.8%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 22.2%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Shreveport's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Bossier Parish carries the most risk (Elevated) while De Soto Parish anchors the lower end.

Moderate15.2Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Shreveport, LA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Bossier Parish contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while De Soto Parish anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Bossier ParishRisk Driver	75	Elevated	33.6%	100	50	50
Caddo Parish	62	Elevated	59.5%	50	100	100
De Soto ParishStabilizer	12	Low Risk	7.0%	0	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	56	71	67	33	51	77
2025-10	Rec	53	68	67	33	37	77
2025-08	Rec	48	40	67	33	34	77
2025-07	Hyp	48	28	67	33	49	77
2025-05	Hyp	48	37	67	34	35	77
2025-04	Ress	46	39	67	34	24	77
2025-02	Ress	43	1	67	32	45	77
2025-01	Hyp	44	1	67	32	51	77
2024-11	Rec	44	0	67	31	50	77
2024-09	Hyp	49	7	67	38	71	77
2024-07	Hyp	50	18	67	38	67	77
2024-06	Ress	54	16	67	38	92	77
2024-04	Ress	56	22	67	38	97	77
2024-01	Hyp	57	30	67	49	85	77
2023-11	Ress	58	46	67	47	78	77
2023-09	Ress	56	28	67	43	84	77
2023-08	Hyp	55	26	67	43	83	77
2023-06	Hyp	50	18	67	43	58	77
2023-04	Ress	46	18	67	43	39	77
2023-02	Ress	53	31	67	50	56	77
2022-11	Ress	50	8	67	47	65	77
2022-10	Hyp	51	6	67	47	74	77
2022-09	Rec	52	11	67	50	73	77
2022-07	Exp	50	11	67	50	60	77
2022-05	Exp	50	4	67	51	68	77
2022-04	Ress	50	3	67	51	69	77
2022-03	Rec	52	6	67	54	73	77
2022-01	Rec	51	5	67	54	68	77
2021-12	Exp	53	3	67	60	75	81
2021-10	Exp	52	3	67	60	68	81
2021-07	Exp	50	1	67	61	55	81
2021-05	Rec	51	1	67	66	55	81
2021-03	Rec	54	4	67	73	66	81
2021-01	Exp	53	3	67	73	60	81
2020-11	Exp	53	9	67	65	65	80
2020-09	Rec	62	41	67	70	80	80
2020-07	Rec	58	18	67	70	79	80
2020-04	Rec	57	32	67	70	61	80
2020-01	Rec	60	12	67	72	96	80
2019-11	Exp	56	3	67	69	88	79
2019-09	Exp	60	18	67	72	88	79
2019-08	Rec	60	15	67	72	93	79
2019-06	Rec	58	8	67	72	92	79
2019-03	Exp	57	13	67	76	76	79
2019-01	Exp	57	1	67	76	85	79

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023