Rankings/Shreveport-Bossier City, LA

Shreveport-Bossier City, LA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 43340Compare

Risk Rank: #94 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +11

54score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Shreveport experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 2 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Shreveport's housing market shows average risk, ranking 94th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+11% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and price momentum. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p77 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p73 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p60 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+11.2%p60

Days on Market YoY

+4.0%p56

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.3%p69

Months in status39

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum73

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth60

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita35

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability34

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment46

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration77

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.8%	p73
Permit Growth	+4.8%	p60
Permits/1K Pop	2.83	p35
Affordability	0.26	p34
Employment	+0.3%	p46
Net AGI Migration	-$44K	p77

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+4.8%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+11.2%

Days on Market YoY+4.0%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 5 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Shreveport's counties diverge significantly — Caddo Parish (High Risk) contrasts sharply with De Soto Parish, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High36.0Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Shreveport, LA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Caddo Parish contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while De Soto Parish anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Caddo ParishRisk Driver	83	High Risk	33.3%	50	100	100
Bossier Parish	67	Elevated	33.3%	100	50	50
De Soto ParishStabilizer	0	Low Risk	33.3%	0	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	56	71	67	33	51	77
2025-10	Rec	53	68	67	33	37	77
2025-08	Rec	48	40	67	33	34	77
2025-07	Hyp	48	28	67	33	49	77
2025-05	Hyp	48	37	67	34	35	77
2025-04	Ress	46	39	67	34	24	77
2025-02	Ress	43	1	67	32	45	77
2025-01	Hyp	44	1	67	32	51	77
2024-11	Rec	44	0	67	31	50	77
2024-09	Hyp	49	7	67	38	71	77
2024-07	Hyp	50	18	67	38	67	77
2024-06	Ress	54	16	67	38	92	77
2024-04	Ress	56	22	67	38	97	77
2024-01	Hyp	57	30	67	49	85	77
2023-11	Ress	58	46	67	47	78	77
2023-09	Ress	56	28	67	43	84	77
2023-08	Hyp	55	26	67	43	83	77
2023-06	Hyp	50	18	67	43	58	77
2023-04	Ress	46	18	67	43	39	77
2023-02	Ress	53	31	67	50	56	77
2022-11	Ress	50	8	67	47	65	77
2022-10	Hyp	51	6	67	47	74	77
2022-09	Rec	52	11	67	50	73	77
2022-07	Exp	50	11	67	50	60	77
2022-05	Exp	50	4	67	51	68	77
2022-04	Ress	50	3	67	51	69	77
2022-03	Rec	52	6	67	54	73	77
2022-01	Rec	51	5	67	54	68	77
2021-12	Exp	53	3	67	60	75	81
2021-10	Exp	52	3	67	60	68	81
2021-07	Exp	50	1	67	61	55	81
2021-05	Rec	51	1	67	66	55	81
2021-03	Rec	54	4	67	73	66	81
2021-01	Exp	53	3	67	73	60	81
2020-11	Exp	53	9	67	65	65	80
2020-09	Rec	62	41	67	70	80	80
2020-07	Rec	58	18	67	70	79	80
2020-04	Rec	57	32	67	70	61	80
2020-01	Rec	60	12	67	72	96	80
2019-11	Exp	56	3	67	69	88	79
2019-09	Exp	60	18	67	72	88	79
2019-08	Rec	60	15	67	72	93	79
2019-06	Rec	58	8	67	72	92	79
2019-03	Exp	57	13	67	76	76	79
2019-01	Exp	57	1	67	76	85	79

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022