US Metro Real Estate Intelligence
Rankings/Sebastian-Vero Beach-West Vero Corridor, FL

Sebastian-Vero Beach-West Vero Corridor, FL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 42680Compare
Risk Rank: #161 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m): +14
48score
Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Sebastian's housing market shows average risk, ranking 161st of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (-17% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Sebastian experienced a market correction from late 2023 through late 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is declining (-17% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession
1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

2019202020212022202320242025

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and affordability, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp95
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Affordabilityp86
Mortgage payment / income
Price Momentump76
12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-17% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable
Active Listings YoY
-16.5%p30
Days on Market YoY
-4.7%p38
Months in status1
Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced
Rent vs. Price Growth
-0.4%p58
Months in status1
Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.
Factor Details
Lower riskHigher risk
Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk
Price MomentumElevated
+2.6%p76

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk
-36.2%p4

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk
1.53p12

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk
0.34p86

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk
-1.6%p95

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk
+$169Kp17

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards
-3.7Normal
Rate Change (YoY)
-38 bpsNormal
Mortgage Risk Premium
+199 bpsElevated
Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio
0.90Elevated
Completion-Permit Divergence
-5.9 ppNormal
Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2
Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling
YoY Permit Growth
-36.2%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate
Largest SectorHealth Care 19%
QCEW 2024 annual averages
Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History
MonthScore
2025-1226
2025-1033
2025-0836
2025-0635
2025-0437
2025-0342
2025-0242
2024-1241
2024-0935
2024-0743
2024-0550
2024-0238
2023-1138
2023-0928
2023-0730
2023-0528
2023-0239
2022-1241
2022-0943
2022-0644
2022-0542
2022-0442
2022-0246
2021-1145
2021-0847
2021-0652
2021-0446
2021-0143
2020-1038
2020-0745
2020-0542
2020-0348
2020-0145
2019-1034
2019-0831
2019-0734
2019-0532
2019-0338
2019-0142
Data Vintages
Price (HPI)2026-Q1
Permits2026-05
Income2024
Employment2026-05
Migration2023