Rankings/Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 42660Compare

Risk Rank: #108 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— 0

53score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Seattle experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 2 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Seattle's housing market shows average risk, ranking 108th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and employment. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p98 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employment

p70 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capita

p51 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+29% YoY) and days on market are up +6% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY

+28.9%p78

Days on Market YoY

+6.3%p61

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.8%p85

Months in status42

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum25

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth32

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita51

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability43

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment70

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration98

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+0.8%	p25
Permit Growth	-11.8%	p32
Permits/1K Pop	3.84	p51
Affordability	0.27	p43
Employment	-0.1%	p70
Net AGI Migration	-$2M	p98

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-11.8%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Sharp building pullback with softening demand. Mixed signals — builders saw weakness early, but demand hasn't fully deteriorated yet.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY+28.9%

Days on Market YoY+6.3%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Seattle's counties diverge significantly — Snohomish County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Pierce County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High26.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Seattle, WA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Snohomish County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Pierce County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Snohomish CountyRisk Driver	83	High Risk	33.3%	100	100	50
King County	50	Average	33.3%	50	0	100
Pierce CountyStabilizer	17	Low Risk	33.3%	0	50	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	56	28	54	42	64	97
2025-10	Rec	48	32	54	42	11	97
2025-08	Hyp	55	27	54	42	58	97
2025-06	Hyp	58	37	54	47	60	97
2025-05	Ress	56	31	54	47	53	97
2025-03	Ress	56	40	54	47	48	97
2024-12	Hyp	53	43	54	46	26	97
2024-10	Hyp	63	56	54	46	74	97
2024-08	Ress	58	52	54	50	45	97
2024-06	Ress	62	61	54	50	58	97
2024-03	Hyp	60	38	54	50	69	97
2024-02	Exp	61	37	54	50	76	97
2023-12	Exp	59	24	54	39	87	97
2023-09	Exp	61	28	54	40	92	97
2023-08	Rec	60	21	54	40	94	97
2023-06	Rec	55	12	54	43	72	97
2023-04	Hyp	54	6	54	43	72	97
2023-02	Hyp	53	6	54	44	66	97
2023-01	Ress	51	6	54	44	50	97
2022-11	Ress	53	6	54	41	65	97
2022-09	Hyp	54	21	54	48	51	97
2022-08	Ress	50	21	54	48	29	97
2022-06	Ress	59	70	54	55	23	97
2022-04	Exp	59	67	54	55	28	97
2022-02	Exp	58	70	54	54	21	97
2022-01	Rec	60	74	54	54	27	97
2021-11	Rec	58	68	54	46	29	97
2021-09	Exp	62	78	54	47	42	97
2021-07	Exp	66	77	54	47	70	97
2021-05	Rec	70	87	54	49	81	97
2021-03	Rec	69	81	54	44	83	97
2020-12	Rec	69	87	54	47	77	96
2020-11	Exp	68	88	54	47	73	96
2020-09	Exp	68	90	54	48	70	96
2020-08	Rec	68	88	54	47	68	96
2020-06	Rec	66	80	54	47	65	96
2020-05	Exp	64	79	54	47	53	96
2020-03	Exp	55	63	54	46	20	96
2020-01	Rec	55	62	54	46	20	96
2019-11	Rec	38	45	54	45	22	12
2019-08	Rec	35	31	54	46	16	12
2019-06	Hyp	34	25	54	46	15	12
2019-04	Hyp	36	24	54	46	24	12
2019-03	Ress	37	33	54	45	26	12
2019-01	Ress	43	60	54	46	31	12

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022