Rankings/Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA

Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 42540Compare

Risk Rank: #155 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +9

48score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Scranton's housing market shows average risk, ranking 155th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Scranton experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +6% pace with homes taking -12% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and affordability, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump89

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp50

Mortgage payment / income

Migrationp49

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +6% pace with homes taking -12% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+6.0%p55

Days on Market YoY

-12.0%p26

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.8%p50

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+4.4%p89

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-1.3%p47

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.05p6

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.29p50

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.5%p48

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$8Kp49

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-1.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 18.5%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Exp	41	46	48	40	57	49
2025-12	Rec	43	79	55	43	27	49
2025-10	Rec	46	86	53	39	52	40
2025-08	Hyp	39	75	53	39	22	40
2025-07	Rec	38	64	53	39	28	40
2025-06	Hyp	38	57	53	37	38	40
2025-05	Ress	43	75	53	37	47	40
2025-03	Ress	48	96	53	44	47	40
2025-02	Rec	46	95	53	44	38	40
2024-12	Rec	43	69	53	36	56	40
2024-11	Ress	45	81	53	36	54	40
2024-09	Ress	50	100	53	40	60	40
2024-08	Hyp	49	99	53	40	57	40
2024-06	Hyp	42	81	53	33	41	40
2024-05	Rec	44	91	53	33	44	40
2024-03	Hyp	46	95	53	36	50	40
2024-01	Exp	45	80	53	36	58	40
2023-11	Exp	41	39	53	51	58	40
2023-08	Rec	46	55	53	53	68	40
2023-06	Rec	43	32	53	47	82	40
2023-05	Hyp	43	34	53	47	80	40
2023-03	Ress	48	66	53	51	71	40
2023-01	Ress	47	65	53	51	66	40
2022-11	Exp	44	72	53	38	53	40
2022-09	Exp	35	60	53	35	16	40
2022-06	Exp	33	49	53	33	20	40
2022-03	Exp	33	44	53	32	25	40
2022-02	Rec	31	42	53	32	16	40
2021-12	Rec	29	41	53	21	20	35
2021-10	Exp	33	36	53	21	46	35
2021-08	Exp	37	31	53	20	80	35
2021-05	Exp	30	36	53	19	35	35
2021-04	Rec	29	37	53	19	23	35
2021-02	Rec	41	48	53	20	84	35
2021-01	Exp	41	49	53	20	83	35
2020-11	Exp	49	80	53	30	84	41
2020-10	Rec	48	79	53	30	80	41
2020-08	Rec	44	61	53	29	73	41
2020-05	Rec	44	58	53	28	81	41
2020-04	Exp	45	59	53	28	85	41
2020-02	Exp	38	41	53	28	57	41
2020-01	Rec	34	30	53	28	50	41
2019-11	Rec	40	37	53	27	48	69
2019-10	Exp	45	49	53	27	66	69
2019-08	Exp	46	41	53	29	76	69
2019-06	Rec	46	25	53	27	94	69
2019-04	Rec	50	50	53	27	96	69
2019-03	Exp	51	53	53	31	95	69
2019-01	Exp	46	18	53	31	97	69

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023