Rankings/Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA

Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 42540Compare

Risk Rank: #261 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -6

37score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Scranton experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 4 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Scranton's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 261st of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by price momentum and permit growth. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p55 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p55 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Affordability

p41 (below average risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+2.9%p52

Days on Market YoY

+3.2%p55

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.3%p69

Months in status9

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum55

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth55

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita5

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability41

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment26

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration40

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.7%	p55
Permit Growth	+0.3%	p55
Permits/1K Pop	1.04	p5
Affordability	0.27	p41
Employment	+0.8%	p26
Net AGI Migration	+$39K	p40

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+0.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+2.9%

Days on Market YoY+3.2%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Scranton's counties diverge significantly — Luzerne County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Wyoming County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High40.8Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Scranton, PA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Luzerne County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Wyoming County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Luzerne CountyRisk Driver	100	High Risk	33.3%	100	100	100
Lackawanna County	50	Average	33.3%	50	50	50
Wyoming CountyStabilizer	0	Low Risk	33.3%	0	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	41	74	53	39	37	40
2025-09	Rec	43	83	53	39	38	40
2025-08	Hyp	39	75	53	39	22	40
2025-07	Rec	38	64	53	39	28	40
2025-06	Hyp	38	57	53	37	38	40
2025-05	Ress	43	75	53	37	47	40
2025-03	Ress	48	96	53	44	47	40
2025-02	Rec	46	95	53	44	38	40
2024-12	Rec	43	69	53	36	56	40
2024-11	Ress	45	81	53	36	54	40
2024-09	Ress	50	100	53	40	60	40
2024-08	Hyp	49	99	53	40	57	40
2024-06	Hyp	42	81	53	33	41	40
2024-05	Rec	44	91	53	33	44	40
2024-03	Hyp	46	95	53	36	50	40
2024-01	Exp	45	80	53	36	58	40
2023-11	Exp	41	39	53	51	58	40
2023-08	Rec	46	55	53	53	68	40
2023-06	Rec	43	32	53	47	82	40
2023-05	Hyp	43	34	53	47	80	40
2023-03	Ress	48	66	53	51	71	40
2023-01	Ress	47	65	53	51	66	40
2022-11	Exp	44	72	53	38	53	40
2022-09	Exp	35	60	53	35	16	40
2022-06	Exp	33	49	53	33	20	40
2022-03	Exp	33	44	53	32	25	40
2022-02	Rec	31	42	53	32	16	40
2021-12	Rec	29	41	53	21	20	35
2021-10	Exp	33	36	53	21	46	35
2021-08	Exp	37	31	53	20	80	35
2021-05	Exp	30	36	53	19	35	35
2021-04	Rec	29	37	53	19	23	35
2021-02	Rec	41	48	53	20	84	35
2021-01	Exp	41	49	53	20	83	35
2020-11	Exp	49	80	53	30	84	41
2020-10	Rec	48	79	53	30	80	41
2020-08	Rec	44	61	53	29	73	41
2020-05	Rec	44	58	53	28	81	41
2020-04	Exp	45	59	53	28	85	41
2020-02	Exp	38	41	53	28	57	41
2020-01	Rec	34	30	53	28	50	41
2019-11	Rec	40	37	53	27	48	69
2019-10	Exp	45	49	53	27	66	69
2019-08	Exp	46	41	53	29	76	69
2019-06	Rec	46	25	53	27	94	69
2019-04	Rec	50	50	53	27	96	69
2019-03	Exp	51	53	53	31	95	69
2019-01	Exp	46	18	53	31	97	69

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022