Rankings/Savannah, GA

Savannah, GA

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 42340Compare

Risk Rank: #6 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +10

70score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Savannah experienced a market correction from late 2024 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 8 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Savannah's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 6th of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 8 months. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by permits per capita and affordability. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p96 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p91 (highest risk decile)

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growth

p89 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +29% YoY with days on market up +20% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+28.9%p78

Days on Market YoY

+19.7%p81

Months in status21

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.2%p32

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum64

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth89

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita96

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability91

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment56

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration24

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.3%	p64
Permit Growth	+34.6%	p89
Permits/1K Pop	12.75	p96
Affordability	0.34	p91
Employment	+0.1%	p56
Net AGI Migration	+$112K	p24

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+34.6%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant overbuilding into weak demand. This is the highest-risk metro combination — new supply is delivering into a market that is already struggling to absorb existing inventory.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY+28.9%

Days on Market YoY+19.7%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 21 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Savannah's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Chatham County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Effingham County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Savannah, GA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Chatham County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Effingham County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Chatham CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	33.3%	0	100	100
Bryan County	50	Average	33.3%	100	0	50
Effingham CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	33.3%	50	50	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	70	80	73	91	64	25
2025-09	Hyp	74	80	73	91	86	25
2025-06	Hyp	67	35	73	87	92	25
2025-04	Ress	72	61	73	87	94	25
2025-02	Ress	71	77	73	89	73	25
2024-11	Hyp	60	16	73	86	71	25
2024-09	Hyp	59	60	73	88	17	25
2024-08	Ress	65	78	73	88	37	25
2024-06	Ress	57	62	73	85	9	25
2024-03	Hyp	64	87	73	86	22	25
2024-01	Exp	68	91	73	86	42	25
2023-11	Exp	68	100	73	90	29	25
2023-09	Rec	70	94	73	88	53	25
2023-07	Rec	73	96	73	88	68	25
2023-05	Hyp	72	99	73	87	60	25
2023-03	Hyp	68	97	73	82	40	25
2023-02	Ress	69	97	73	82	45	25
2022-12	Ress	71	98	73	81	59	25
2022-09	Hyp	66	94	73	79	38	25
2022-07	Exp	67	96	73	79	40	25
2022-05	Exp	62	92	73	76	14	25
2022-02	Exp	58	76	73	72	11	25
2022-01	Rec	58	74	73	72	14	25
2021-11	Rec	57	72	74	73	8	27
2021-10	Exp	57	71	74	73	6	27
2021-08	Exp	50	39	74	65	4	27
2021-05	Rec	51	34	74	69	15	27
2021-03	Rec	57	39	74	68	45	27
2021-01	Exp	55	41	74	68	33	27
2020-11	Exp	59	27	74	74	45	44
2020-10	Rec	56	23	74	74	34	44
2020-08	Rec	63	42	74	76	53	44
2020-05	Exp	66	55	74	76	56	44
2020-03	Exp	61	70	74	75	15	44
2020-02	Rec	68	75	74	76	49	44
2019-12	Rec	66	91	74	77	4	64
2019-11	Exp	66	87	74	77	8	64
2019-09	Exp	73	78	74	77	54	64
2019-08	Rec	68	70	74	77	36	64
2019-06	Rec	65	60	74	75	26	64
2019-05	Exp	66	67	74	75	28	64
2019-03	Exp	67	63	74	73	41	64
2019-01	Exp	64	72	74	73	9	64

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022