Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
Executive Summary
Santa Rosa's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 236th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (-11% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.
Santa Rosa experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.
Inventory is declining (-11% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.
Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.
Cycle Phase
Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals
Key Dynamics
Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and permits per capita, while migration provides the most support.
Top Drivers
Market Signals
Inventory is declining (-11% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.
Liquidity
Valuation
Factor Details
12-month HPI change — higher = overheating
YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure
Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk
Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
National Context
Credit Conditions
Credit Regime
Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.
Supply Pipeline
Supply Regime
Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.
Local Signals
Metro Permit Activity
Permit Activity
NormalRaw signal — not the composite percentile
Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro
Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.
Employment Concentration
Employment
DiversifiedInternal Structure
County-level structural analysis.
County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.
Score History
| Month | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026-06 | 38 |
| 2025-12 | 38 |
| 2025-11 | 21 |
| 2025-09 | 21 |
| 2025-06 | 24 |
| 2025-03 | 29 |
| 2025-01 | 26 |
| 2024-12 | 27 |
| 2024-10 | 29 |
| 2024-07 | 40 |
| 2024-06 | 28 |
| 2024-04 | 24 |
| 2024-03 | 25 |
| 2024-02 | 26 |
| 2023-12 | 28 |
| 2023-09 | 23 |
| 2023-06 | 29 |
| 2023-04 | 29 |
| 2023-02 | 26 |
| 2022-12 | 23 |
| 2022-11 | 24 |
| 2022-10 | 20 |
| 2022-08 | 21 |
| 2022-05 | 16 |
| 2022-02 | 17 |
| 2022-01 | 16 |
| 2021-11 | 14 |
| 2021-09 | 16 |
| 2021-07 | 19 |
| 2021-06 | 23 |
| 2021-04 | 21 |
| 2021-01 | 30 |
| 2020-11 | 30 |
| 2020-09 | 31 |
| 2020-07 | 30 |
| 2020-04 | 28 |
| 2020-03 | 21 |
| 2020-01 | 22 |
| 2019-12 | 30 |
| 2019-10 | 28 |
| 2019-07 | 31 |
| 2019-05 | 33 |
| 2019-02 | 35 |
| 2019-01 | 34 |