Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
Executive Summary
Santa Maria's housing market shows average risk, ranking 106th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.
Santa Maria experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.
Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.
Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.
Cycle Phase
Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period
Key Dynamics
Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and affordability, while permits per capita provides the most support.
Top Drivers
Market Signals
Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.
Liquidity
Valuation
Factor Details
12-month HPI change — higher = overheating
YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure
Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk
Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
National Context
Credit Conditions
Credit Regime
Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.
Supply Pipeline
Supply Regime
Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.
Local Signals
Metro Permit Activity
Permit Activity
NormalRaw signal — not the composite percentile
Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro
Based on limited permit volume
Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.
Employment Concentration
Employment
DiversifiedInternal Structure
County-level structural analysis.
County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.
Score History
| Month | Score |
|---|---|
| 2025-12 | 40 |
| 2025-11 | 55 |
| 2025-09 | 53 |
| 2025-08 | 57 |
| 2025-07 | 58 |
| 2025-05 | 60 |
| 2025-03 | 51 |
| 2024-12 | 44 |
| 2024-09 | 61 |
| 2024-06 | 59 |
| 2024-05 | 59 |
| 2024-03 | 64 |
| 2023-12 | 62 |
| 2023-10 | 58 |
| 2023-08 | 55 |
| 2023-06 | 52 |
| 2023-03 | 53 |
| 2023-02 | 50 |
| 2022-12 | 52 |
| 2022-10 | 57 |
| 2022-09 | 56 |
| 2022-07 | 55 |
| 2022-06 | 57 |
| 2022-04 | 51 |
| 2022-01 | 46 |
| 2021-10 | 44 |
| 2021-07 | 45 |
| 2021-05 | 44 |
| 2021-03 | 52 |
| 2021-02 | 51 |
| 2020-12 | 49 |
| 2020-11 | 48 |
| 2020-09 | 46 |
| 2020-06 | 49 |
| 2020-03 | 43 |
| 2019-12 | 45 |
| 2019-10 | 48 |
| 2019-09 | 51 |
| 2019-07 | 54 |
| 2019-04 | 46 |
| 2019-01 | 46 |