Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
Cycle Phase
Santa Maria experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.
Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption
Santa Maria's housing market shows average risk, ranking 177th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.
Executive Summary
Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and affordability. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.
Top Risk Drivers (This Month)
Market Signals
Inventory is elevated (+15% YoY) and days on market are up +8% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.
Liquidity
Valuation
Factor Details
Factor Breakdown
12-month HPI change — higher = overheating
YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure
Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk
Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
Underlying Values
| Metric | Value | Pctile |
|---|---|---|
| Price Momentum | +4.1% | p79 |
| Permit Growth | -3.3% | p47 |
| Permits/1K Pop | 1.73 | p15 |
| Affordability | 0.31 | p77 |
| Employment | +0.5% | p38 |
| Net AGI Migration | +$128K | p23 |
National ContextDoes not affect score
Credit Conditions
Credit Regime
Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.
Supply Pipeline
Supply Regime
Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.
Local SignalsDoes not affect score
Metro Permit Activity
Permit Activity
NormalRaw signal — not the composite percentile
Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro
Based on limited permit volume
Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.
Liquidity
Liquidity
Internal Structure
County-level structural analysis.
County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.
Score History
| Month | Score |
|---|---|
| 2025-11 | 55 |
| 2025-09 | 53 |
| 2025-08 | 57 |
| 2025-07 | 58 |
| 2025-05 | 60 |
| 2025-03 | 51 |
| 2024-12 | 44 |
| 2024-09 | 61 |
| 2024-06 | 59 |
| 2024-05 | 59 |
| 2024-03 | 64 |
| 2023-12 | 62 |
| 2023-10 | 58 |
| 2023-08 | 55 |
| 2023-06 | 52 |
| 2023-03 | 53 |
| 2023-02 | 50 |
| 2022-12 | 52 |
| 2022-10 | 57 |
| 2022-09 | 56 |
| 2022-07 | 55 |
| 2022-06 | 57 |
| 2022-04 | 51 |
| 2022-01 | 46 |
| 2021-10 | 44 |
| 2021-07 | 45 |
| 2021-05 | 44 |
| 2021-03 | 52 |
| 2021-02 | 51 |
| 2020-12 | 49 |
| 2020-11 | 48 |
| 2020-09 | 46 |
| 2020-06 | 49 |
| 2020-03 | 43 |
| 2019-12 | 45 |
| 2019-10 | 48 |
| 2019-09 | 51 |
| 2019-07 | 54 |
| 2019-04 | 46 |
| 2019-01 | 46 |