Santa Fe, NM
Executive Summary
Santa Fe's housing market shows average risk, ranking 169th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers. Valuations are also showing some stretch.
Santa Fe experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.
Inventory is elevated (+18% YoY) and days on market are up -2% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.
Home prices are outpacing rents (-4.5% rent-price ratio change), indicating some valuation compression.
Cycle Phase
Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption
Key Dynamics
Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and price momentum, while employment provides the most support.
Top Drivers
Market Signals
Inventory is elevated (+18% YoY) and days on market are up -2% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.
Liquidity
Valuation
Factor Details
12-month HPI change — higher = overheating
YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure
Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk
Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
National Context
Credit Conditions
Credit Regime
Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.
Supply Pipeline
Supply Regime
Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.
Local Signals
Metro Permit Activity
Permit Activity
ElevatedRaw signal — not the composite percentile
Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro
Based on limited permit volume
Building is elevated but demand is cooling. Early warning of supply-demand imbalance — if liquidity continues to soften, this pipeline could become a problem.
Employment Concentration
Employment
ModerateInternal Structure
County-level structural analysis.
County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.
Score History
| Month | Score |
|---|---|
| 2025-11 | 23 |
| 2025-10 | 21 |
| 2025-09 | 24 |
| 2025-08 | 26 |
| 2025-06 | 17 |
| 2025-04 | 18 |
| 2025-01 | 20 |
| 2024-12 | 39 |
| 2024-10 | 42 |
| 2024-07 | 24 |
| 2024-05 | 38 |
| 2024-02 | 29 |
| 2024-01 | 31 |
| 2023-11 | 26 |
| 2023-10 | 28 |
| 2023-08 | 40 |
| 2023-06 | 24 |
| 2023-04 | 35 |
| 2023-02 | 34 |
| 2022-12 | 32 |
| 2022-09 | 42 |
| 2022-07 | 38 |
| 2022-05 | 25 |
| 2022-02 | 27 |
| 2021-12 | 20 |
| 2021-10 | 23 |
| 2021-08 | 22 |
| 2021-05 | 26 |
| 2021-03 | 39 |
| 2021-02 | 40 |
| 2020-12 | 36 |
| 2020-10 | 36 |
| 2020-08 | 40 |
| 2020-05 | 42 |
| 2020-03 | 40 |
| 2019-12 | 38 |
| 2019-10 | 32 |
| 2019-07 | 38 |
| 2019-05 | 40 |
| 2019-02 | 32 |
| 2019-01 | 32 |