Rankings/Santa Fe, NM

Santa Fe, NM

NeutralTier 1CBSA 42140Compare

Risk Rank: #72 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +31

57score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Santa Fe's housing market shows average risk, ranking 72nd of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Santa Fe experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (-0% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and employment, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp94

YoY permit change

Employmentp84

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentump76

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-0% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

-0.5%p48

Days on Market YoY

+1.4%p50

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.8%p25

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.5%p76

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+61.9%p94

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.57p44

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.24p13

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.6%p84

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$46Kp33

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+61.9%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 24.5%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	51	77	96	12	47	33
2025-12	Hyp	47	88	98	15	5	33
2025-11	Rec	23	54	0	13	4	54
2025-10	Hyp	21	45	0	13	3	54
2025-09	Rec	24	47	0	13	15	54
2025-08	Hyp	26	49	0	13	29	54
2025-06	Ress	17	15	0	12	8	54
2025-04	Ress	18	11	0	12	19	54
2025-01	Ress	20	34	0	12	8	54
2024-12	Hyp	39	78	0	14	74	54
2024-10	Hyp	42	99	0	14	72	54
2024-07	Ress	24	9	0	15	51	54
2024-05	Ress	38	70	0	17	78	54
2024-02	Exp	29	49	0	15	46	54
2024-01	Rec	31	33	0	15	73	54
2023-11	Rec	26	4	0	17	66	54
2023-10	Ress	28	7	0	17	75	54
2023-08	Rec	40	83	0	32	60	54
2023-06	Hyp	24	29	0	21	31	54
2023-04	Hyp	35	40	0	21	85	54
2023-02	Ress	34	67	0	27	45	54
2022-12	Ress	32	51	0	33	43	54
2022-09	Rec	42	60	0	33	92	54
2022-07	Exp	38	59	0	33	70	54
2022-05	Exp	25	32	0	30	22	54
2022-02	Rec	27	53	0	35	8	54
2021-12	Rec	20	49	0	32	2	26
2021-10	Exp	23	55	0	33	14	26
2021-08	Exp	22	55	0	32	4	26
2021-05	Rec	26	60	0	32	29	26
2021-03	Rec	39	69	0	33	96	26
2021-02	Exp	40	70	0	33	97	26
2020-12	Exp	36	42	0	42	98	24
2020-10	Rec	36	46	0	42	95	24
2020-08	Rec	40	67	0	43	96	24
2020-05	Exp	42	84	0	43	88	24
2020-03	Exp	40	97	0	43	63	24
2019-12	Rec	38	96	0	41	57	22
2019-10	Rec	32	87	0	41	28	22
2019-07	Exp	38	96	0	41	55	22
2019-05	Exp	40	90	0	34	78	22
2019-02	Exp	32	89	0	35	30	22
2019-01	Exp	32	84	0	35	39	22

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023