San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
Cycle Phase
San Jose experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025.
Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure
San Jose's housing market shows average risk, ranking 120th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.
Executive Summary
Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and permit growth. The market is in Recession phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.
Top Risk Drivers (This Month)
Market Signals
Inventory has surged +22% YoY with days on market up +10% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.
Liquidity
Valuation
Factor Details
Factor Breakdown
12-month HPI change — higher = overheating
YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure
Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk
Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
Underlying Values
| Metric | Value | Pctile |
|---|---|---|
| Price Momentum | -0.4% | p9 |
| Permit Growth | +41.7% | p91 |
| Permits/1K Pop | 3.09 | p39 |
| Affordability | 0.20 | p4 |
| Employment | -0.2% | p71 |
| Net AGI Migration | -$5M | p99 |
National ContextDoes not affect score
Credit Conditions
Credit Regime
Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.
Supply Pipeline
Supply Regime
Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.
Local SignalsDoes not affect score
Metro Permit Activity
Permit Activity
SurgeRaw signal — not the composite percentile
Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro
Significant overbuilding into weak demand. This is the highest-risk metro combination — new supply is delivering into a market that is already struggling to absorb existing inventory.
Liquidity
Liquidity
Internal Structure
County-level structural analysis.
County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.
Score History
| Month | Score |
|---|---|
| 2025-11 | 38 |
| 2025-10 | 38 |
| 2025-08 | 37 |
| 2025-06 | 38 |
| 2025-04 | 38 |
| 2025-02 | 40 |
| 2025-01 | 41 |
| 2024-12 | 37 |
| 2024-10 | 38 |
| 2024-08 | 42 |
| 2024-07 | 44 |
| 2024-05 | 47 |
| 2024-04 | 47 |
| 2024-03 | 51 |
| 2024-01 | 50 |
| 2023-12 | 54 |
| 2023-10 | 51 |
| 2023-07 | 47 |
| 2023-05 | 41 |
| 2023-02 | 34 |
| 2023-01 | 35 |
| 2022-11 | 34 |
| 2022-10 | 35 |
| 2022-09 | 33 |
| 2022-08 | 34 |
| 2022-06 | 40 |
| 2022-05 | 39 |
| 2022-04 | 38 |
| 2022-02 | 30 |
| 2022-01 | 29 |
| 2021-11 | 27 |
| 2021-09 | 28 |
| 2021-07 | 32 |
| 2021-06 | 36 |
| 2021-04 | 38 |
| 2021-01 | 38 |
| 2020-11 | 37 |
| 2020-09 | 36 |
| 2020-08 | 37 |
| 2020-06 | 35 |
| 2020-05 | 32 |
| 2020-03 | 30 |
| 2020-02 | 28 |
| 2019-12 | 29 |
| 2019-09 | 30 |
| 2019-08 | 30 |
| 2019-06 | 32 |
| 2019-03 | 30 |
| 2019-01 | 32 |