Rankings/San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA

San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 41860Compare

Risk Rank: #131 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +10

51score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

San Francisco experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

San Francisco's housing market shows average risk, ranking 131st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and employment. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p100 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employment

p86 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p81 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+1.4%p50

Days on Market YoY

-3.1%p41

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+5.0%p97

Months in status23

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum24

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth81

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita12

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability5

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment86

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration100

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+0.7%	p24
Permit Growth	+19.2%	p81
Permits/1K Pop	1.61	p12
Affordability	0.20	p5
Employment	-0.5%	p86
Net AGI Migration	-$7M	p100

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+19.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+1.4%

Days on Market YoY-3.1%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

San Francisco's counties diverge significantly — San Mateo County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Marin County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High26.2

5 of 5 counties scored

San Francisco, CA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. San Mateo County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Marin County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
San Mateo CountyRisk Driver	83	High Risk	20.0%	100	75	75
San Francisco County	75	Elevated	20.0%	75	50	100
Contra Costa County	50	Average	20.0%	50	100	0
Alameda County	25	Low Risk	20.0%	0	25	50
Marin CountyStabilizer	17	Low Risk	20.0%	25	0	25

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	39	19	16	4	86	100
2025-09	Rec	39	14	16	4	91	100
2025-08	Hyp	39	13	16	4	92	100
2025-06	Hyp	38	8	16	5	91	100
2025-04	Ress	38	6	16	5	92	100
2025-02	Ress	39	13	16	6	93	100
2024-12	Rec	41	23	16	7	92	100
2024-11	Hyp	40	21	16	7	92	100
2024-10	Rec	40	21	16	7	92	100
2024-09	Hyp	39	13	16	5	95	100
2024-07	Hyp	39	12	16	5	94	100
2024-06	Ress	41	20	16	7	96	100
2024-04	Ress	40	15	16	7	98	100
2024-03	Exp	40	11	16	9	96	100
2024-01	Exp	40	18	16	9	90	100
2023-10	Exp	39	5	16	8	97	100
2023-07	Rec	40	9	16	10	98	100
2023-05	Rec	40	7	16	13	94	100
2023-02	Hyp	38	5	16	13	86	100
2023-01	Ress	38	6	16	13	83	100
2022-11	Ress	33	12	16	12	49	100
2022-10	Hyp	32	13	16	12	46	100
2022-08	Hyp	31	27	16	13	21	100
2022-07	Ress	31	35	16	13	13	100
2022-05	Ress	30	35	16	17	6	100
2022-04	Exp	28	21	16	17	8	100
2022-02	Exp	26	11	16	16	6	100
2021-12	Rec	26	8	16	19	5	100
2021-10	Rec	26	7	16	19	8	100
2021-09	Exp	26	3	16	16	12	100
2021-07	Exp	28	3	16	16	26	100
2021-06	Rec	34	7	16	22	51	100
2021-04	Rec	38	6	16	22	78	100
2021-01	Hyp	40	1	16	23	95	100
2020-11	Exp	40	0	16	18	96	100
2020-09	Exp	39	0	16	18	95	100
2020-06	Exp	38	0	16	22	85	100
2020-03	Exp	30	0	16	23	35	100
2020-01	Rec	28	0	16	23	19	100
2019-11	Rec	29	1	16	26	27	98
2019-08	Hyp	29	0	16	28	23	98
2019-06	Hyp	29	0	16	29	26	98
2019-03	Hyp	31	5	16	35	27	98
2019-01	Hyp	36	25	16	35	35	98

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022