Rankings/San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA

San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 41860Compare

Risk Rank: #157 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +8

49score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

San Francisco's housing market shows average risk, ranking 157th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

San Francisco experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and employment, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp100

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp86

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp81

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+1.4%p50

Days on Market YoY

-3.1%p41

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+5.5%p98

Months in status23

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.3%p9

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+19.2%p81

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.61p12

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.20p4

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.5%p86

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$7Mp100

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+19.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorHealth Care 15.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

San Francisco's counties diverge significantly — San Mateo County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Marin County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High20.6

5 of 5 counties scored

San Francisco, CA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. San Mateo County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Marin County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
San Mateo CountyRisk Driver	81	High Risk	16.0%	100	75	75
Contra Costa County	62	Elevated	25.1%	50	100	0
San Francisco County	62	Elevated	17.9%	75	50	100
Alameda County	31	Below Average	35.5%	0	25	50
Marin CountyStabilizer	12	Low Risk	5.5%	25	0	25

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	39	19	16	4	86	100
2025-09	Rec	39	14	16	4	91	100
2025-08	Hyp	39	13	16	4	92	100
2025-06	Hyp	38	8	16	5	91	100
2025-04	Ress	38	6	16	5	92	100
2025-02	Ress	39	13	16	6	93	100
2024-12	Rec	41	23	16	7	92	100
2024-11	Hyp	40	21	16	7	92	100
2024-10	Rec	40	21	16	7	92	100
2024-09	Hyp	39	13	16	5	95	100
2024-07	Hyp	39	12	16	5	94	100
2024-06	Ress	41	20	16	7	96	100
2024-04	Ress	40	15	16	7	98	100
2024-03	Exp	40	11	16	9	96	100
2024-01	Exp	40	18	16	9	90	100
2023-10	Exp	39	5	16	8	97	100
2023-07	Rec	40	9	16	10	98	100
2023-05	Rec	40	7	16	13	94	100
2023-02	Hyp	38	5	16	13	86	100
2023-01	Ress	38	6	16	13	83	100
2022-11	Ress	33	12	16	12	49	100
2022-10	Hyp	32	13	16	12	46	100
2022-08	Hyp	31	27	16	13	21	100
2022-07	Ress	31	35	16	13	13	100
2022-05	Ress	30	35	16	17	6	100
2022-04	Exp	28	21	16	17	8	100
2022-02	Exp	26	11	16	16	6	100
2021-12	Rec	26	8	16	19	5	100
2021-10	Rec	26	7	16	19	8	100
2021-09	Exp	26	3	16	16	12	100
2021-07	Exp	28	3	16	16	26	100
2021-06	Rec	34	7	16	22	51	100
2021-04	Rec	38	6	16	22	78	100
2021-01	Hyp	40	1	16	23	95	100
2020-11	Exp	40	0	16	18	96	100
2020-09	Exp	39	0	16	18	95	100
2020-06	Exp	38	0	16	22	85	100
2020-03	Exp	30	0	16	23	35	100
2020-01	Rec	28	0	16	23	19	100
2019-11	Rec	29	1	16	26	27	98
2019-08	Hyp	29	0	16	28	23	98
2019-06	Hyp	29	0	16	29	26	98
2019-03	Hyp	31	5	16	35	27	98
2019-01	Hyp	36	25	16	35	35	98

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022